PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - me (I-GA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:76

Prediction Map
me MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
me MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem272
 
Rep266
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem243
 
Rep229
 
Ind0
 
Tos66
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+55-30-35172217+20
Rep+30+35-70-55243231-20
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
69402243
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Well,I decided to come back for the last day before the election. And so I have one thing to say:Loiusianna was supposed to be strong.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 75

wyoming,idaho rep 60%


Version: 74

now that biden is vp nominee...


Version: 73

VA lean,40%.NJ strong,50%.MI 40%

obama/bayh-46.4%
mccain/pawlenty-43.3%
barr/root-6.1%
nader/gonzalez-3.1%
mckinney/clemente-0.5%
baldwin/castle-0.4%
other-0.2%


Version: 72

to make my point


Version: 71

to make my point...


Version: 70

wat i would have given for it to have been a
edwards-huckabee-bloomberg race.oh well...


Version: 69

obama/clark-46% vs mccain/huckabee-43% vs barr/root-8% other-3%

start tearing me down.u no u want 2.


Version: 68

a guy can hope, cant he?


Version: 67

conservrep vs wingindy vs doniki80


Version: 66

barr best scenario

how?

barr goes up a bit as he campaigns more.then some people start campaigning for him.they include:
ron paul
ed thompson
jesse ventura

the 1st debate comes.barr makes fools out of mccain and obama.
he makes himself look like thomas jefforson.

same thing in 2nd debate.

the media starts treating him seriously.

they start giving him attention and he uses it.

election nite cums and he does better than expected.

results:
1st dem b.obama/w.clark-38.2%
2nd gop j.mccain/m.huckabee-36.1%
3rd lib b.barr/w.root-20.9%
4th ind r.nader/m.gonzalez-3.0%
5th grn c.mckinney/j.johnson-1.2%
6th con c.baldwin/d.castle-0.4%
other-0.2%

i will give results for any state anyone asks 4

I DONT BELIEVE THIS WILL HAPPEN.THIS IS A WHAT-IF SCENARIO.


Version: 65

dem best scenario


Version: 64

republican best scenario.


Version: 63

few changes from last map...(such as the winner)


Version: 62

(Dem)obama/edwards 32%
vs
(GOP)mccain/huckabee 34%
vs
(Ind)bloomberg/hagel 28%
vs
(Grn)mckinney/nader 5%

if you are wondering why bloomberg does so well,here is why:

when bloomberg enters race,he gets momentum and starts out with around 16% in the polls but as time goes on with his resources,
bloomberg boosts up quick he reminds voters how he is moderate and his record as mayor.he can and very likely will beat the snot out of the other candidates in the debates.

house could choose any one of the candidates


Version: 61

who can find the pattern


Version: 60

obama vs mccain vs bloomberg vs mckinney

bloomberg has the resources to do this well.


Version: 59

(Dem)edwards/warner(35%)liberal fashion
vs
(GOP)mccain/huckabee(30%) moderate fashion
vs
(U08)bloomberg/hagel(28%) moderate libertarian fashion
vs
(Grn)mckinney/nader(5%) environmentalist fashion
other-1%

house could choose any of three candidates but warner wins vp.


Version: 58

obama/clinton 38%
vs
huckabee/mccain 34%
vs
bloomberg/hagel 21%
vs
mckinney/nader 6%

other- 1%


bloomberg recently said he would anounce he would run day after
super tuesday

didnt think mckinney would run until she did


Version: 57

(GOP)huckabee/mccain 33%
vs
(Dem)obama/clinton 37%
vs
(U08)king/lieberman 21%
vs
(Grn)mckinney/nader 7%
other-2%

I am tired of matchups. maybe I will finish them later.

did not think mckinney would run until she declared she would.


Version: 56

#7 in series of 15 matchups

obama vs mccain

many tossups


Version: 55

#6 in series of 15 matchups

edwards vs romney

this scenario would make a wierd result


Version: 54

#5 in series of 15 matchups

romney vs clinton

not as close in pop vote


Version: 53

#4 in series of 15 mathups

edwards vs huckabee

meant to be closer...


Version: 52

mccain vs clinton

this number 2 in my series of matchups(15 in al

clinton does not have as much electability as other dems

democrats in my opinion more likely to win because right now some independents are a little cautious after bush


Version: 51

whatif scenario

giuliani vs clinton

dems have a better chance at winning the election unless they nominate clinton(or kucinich)and the GOP nominate giuliani or mccain.

I will be making more whatif scenarios where hillary,obama,and edwards face off against giuliani,thompson,mccain,romney,and huckabee.

I meant to make alaska strong.


Version: 50

Dem:Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson 40%
vs
GOP:Fred Thompson/Mike Huckabee 36%
vs
Ind:Mike Bloomberg/Chuck Hagel 21%
vs
Lib:Ed Thompson/George phillies 3%

house will choose Clinton



Version: 49

republican primaries prediction

giulini-slight:pink lean:bright red strong:red
thompson-slight:dark blue lean:very dark blue strong:navy
mccain-slight:light green lean:bright green strong:green
romney-slight:light blue lean:bright blue strong:blue
huckabee-slight:dark red lean:darker red strong:maroon
tossup-darkest blue
no data-darkest green

1st.thompson 26%
2cd.giuliani 22%
3rd.romney 18%
4th.mccain 15%
5th.huckabee 12%
6th.paul 5%
7th.tancredo 2%
hunter will drop out of race

when huckabee wins in iowa he will be alot more well-known.
winner-thompson
vp-huckabee

dem predictions last version


Version: 48


This is Dems primary prediction

key:
clinton-slight:pink lean:bright red strong:red
obama-slight:light blue lean:bright blue strong:blue
edwards-slight:light green lean:bright green strong:green
richardson-slight:dark blue lean:very dark blue strong:navy
tossup-darkest blue
not available-darkest green

These predictions are 65% polls,25% how I expect things to
change,10% instinct.

because these predictions are 65% polls,some states I cannot have accurate predictions.

clinton-36%
obama-29%
edwards-19%
richardson-7%
biden-4%
kucinich-3%
dodd-1%
gravel-1%


Version: 47

(GOP)Rudy Giuliani/John McCain 35%
(Dem)Hillary Clinton/John Edwards 43%
(Lib)Ron Paul/Ed thompson 21%
other:1%

This is a whatif scenario rather than a prediction.

The reason I have FL,PA, and MO going to the republicans is
because those are the main places Giuliani campaigns.


Version: 46

clinton/richardson vs thompson/huckabee vs bloomberg/hagel


Version: 45

(Dem)clinton/richardson(41.3%)
vs
(GOP)thompson/huckabee(37.2%)
vs
(U08)bloomberg/hagel(19.9%)
vs
(Ind)nader/brown(0.9%)
vs
(Lib)phillies/root(0.6%)


Version: 44

republican primaries prediction
winner-thompson
red-giuliani
blue-romney
green-mccain
dark blue-thompson
darkred-huckabee
pop vote:
thompson-28%
giuliani-26%
romney-18%
mccain-14%
huckabee-7%
paul-4%
other-3%
dem prediction-last version


Version: 43

state-by-state dem primary result.
red-clinton
blue-obama
green-edwards
dark blue-richardson
popular vote:
clinton-36.7%
obama-28.3
edwards-17.8%
richardson-8.9%
other-8.3

I will soon make a GOP map. code for next map:
red:giuliani
dark blue:thompson
green:mccain
blue:romney

general election result last map.


Version: 42

GOP-thompson/romney
dem-clinton/richardson
u08-bloomberg/nunn


Version: 41

republican-mccain
democrat-richardson
libertarian-ed thompson

JOKE, NOT PREDICTION.

you might be wondering why ed thompson did so well.this is why:
1.he chooses ron paul as his running mate, which starts to get peoples attention.
2.he gets interviewed by cnn which goes well.
3.he gets invited into the debate.richardson spends it attacking mccain,who does poorly.thompson, however, does great
4.the other debates go the same way.
5.he ends up the only candidate who seems to care about civil rights.

(house elects mccain)


Version: 40

JOKE, NOT PREDICTION

This is a best-bloomberg-can-do map.
(R)Tancredo(republican that would do worst)
(D)Biden(Democrat that would do worst)
(I)Bloomberg

Real prediction is version 38.

Best-Dems-can-do map is version 39.Best-GOP-can-do map is last version.

It is possible that house will elect bloomberg.


Version: 39

JOKE, NOT PREDICTION!

This is the best dems can do.

(D)Edwards(Democrat that can do the best)
(R)Tancredo(Republican that would do worst)
(I)Bloomberg

My real prediction is the last version.I will soon come up with
a best-GOP-can-do map and a best-Bloomberg-can-do map.


Version: 38

(Dem)clinton/richardson 41%
(GOP)romney/thompson 37%
(U08)bloomberg/sanders 20%
(Ind)nader/brown 1%
(Lib)phillies/root 0.5%
other 0.5%


Version: 37

romney/thompson/vs clinton/richardson vs bloomberg/sanders


Version: 36

thompson/romney vs clinton/richardson vs bloomberg/sanders


Version: 35

clinton vs thompson vs bloomberg


Version: 34

(GOP)thompson/romney-38%
(Dem)clinton/richardson-41%
(U08)bloomberg/sanders-20%
(Ind)nader/brown-1%


Version: 33

(R)thompson/romney vs (D)clinton/richardson vs (G)gore/sanders

could go any way in the house.I guess they will narrowly elect
clinton.


Version: 32

clinton vs thompson vs bloomberg

strongest states-
clinton-DC 89% Illinois 62% Rhode Island 59%
thompson-Alabama 64% Missisippi 61% Utah 60%
bloomberg-maine 44% vermont 39% alaska 37%

maine:the reason I put maine as 44% bloomberg is because bloomberg is a left-center independent who has political experience.that will get alot of votes from maine.
wisconson:it has been extremely close the last two elections.with a bloomberg run and a nader run,that will be
enough to make it GOP this year.also many independents who voted kerry and gore did so because they do not like bush as much as other republicans.
west virginia:about half of west virginians are democrat.plus,thompson does not seem like the kind of guy that voters in the state would like.


Version: 31

romney(38%) vs clinton(41%) vs bloomberg(20%) vs nader(1%)


Version: 30

(GOP)romney/thompson 38%
(dem)clinton/richardson 41%
(U08)bloomberg/nunn 20%
(Ind)nader/brown 1%


Version: 29

GOP-Thompson/Romney 38%
Dem-Clinton/Richardson 41%
U08-Bloomberg/Nunn 20%
Ind-Nader/Brown 1%


Version: 28

(democrat)edwards/obama
(republican)mccain/thompson
(family values)gingrich/romney

this isn't my prediction,but a what if scenario of gingrich
running.I got the idea from beconstine.you should check his
map out(version 14).I also chose the candidates of each party
from who I'm cheering for rather than who I think will win
each nomination.check out my real prediction on the last version.


Version: 27

edwards vs thompson vs bloomberg


Version: 26

clinton/richardson(Dem) 42% of popv
vs
thompson/romney(GOP) 40% of popv
vs
nunn/leiberman(U08) 17% of popv
vs
nader/brown(Ind) 1% of popv

clinton gets more popular with dems,while thompson beats guiliani by 2% and romney,who gents about 20% of GOP vote,
gets chosen for vp.nunn tries to convince bloomberg to be
his vp,but bloomberg refuses,so nunn chooses leiberman.

clinton barely beats thompson and nunn in the house,while it's
just as close in the senate where richardson gets vp.


Version: 25

(Dem)Clinton/Richardson 41.0%
(GOP)Thompson/Romney 37.6%
(Unity08)Bloomberg/Hagel 19.9%
(Ind)Nader/Brown 0.9%
(Lib)phillies/thompson 0.4%
other 0.2%

wisconson-many independents who voted for kerry and gore did
because the disapprove of bush.alot of them may vote
for thompson this year.

new hampshire-bloomberg will get votes from independents who
normally would vote for clinton.

west virginia-half of the population are democrats.voters vote
for bush because they like him(even some dems).
it does not mean they will vote for thompson.

vermont-many many independents.bloomberg has a real shot at
this state.

I know who i am voting for.


Version: 24

GOP-thompson/romney 35.6%
dem-clinton/richardson 41.1%
unity08-hagel/bloomberg 22.0%
ind-nader/brown 0.7%
lib-phillies/root 0.4
other 0.2%

thompson's campaign goes badly,clinton's goes ok,while hagel's
moderate campaign goes along great.hagel does alot of campaining
in florida,while thompson goes for wisconson and clinton's campain stays divided among many states.

anyway,gonna be an interesting election.I know who i'm gonna
vote 4.if you have questions or comments, feel free to ask or tell me.


Version: 23

GOP-thompson/romney 35.44%
dem-clinton/richardson 42.59%
unity08-bloomberg/hagel 19.77
ind-nader/brown 0.96%
lib-thompson/phillies 0.83%
other 0.41%

results for GOP results for dems
thompson-28% clinton:39%
guiliani-26% obama:27%
romney-17% edwards:16%
mccain-14% richardson:8%
paul-5% kucinich:4%
huckabee-5% biden:4%
other-5% other:2%

if you have any questions whatsoever,please feel free to ask.


Version: 22


(R)(fred)thompson/romney 34.58% former senator of tennesse
(D)clinton/richardson 43.15% senator of new york
(I)hagel/bloomberg 19.81% senator of nebraska
(G)nader/brown 1.19% (no political experience)
(L)(ed)thompson/phillies 0.84% former mayor of tomah,wisconson
other 0.41% (no political experience)

hagel's independent run will hurt the republicans severely.


Version: 21

(R)thompson/romney 34.5%
(D)clinton/richardson 43.1%
(I)hagel/bloomberg 20.1%
(G)nader/brown 1.5%
(L)phillies/root 0.4%
other 0.4%


Version: 20

(R)thompson 35.6%
(D)clinton 40.0%
(I)mccain 23.3%
other 1.1%

THIS IS NOT MY PREDICTION!repeat, THIS IS NOT MY PREDICTION!

this is a what-if scenario of mccain dropping out of GOP primaries so he can run as an independent.this could happen
since he is the most moderate in the GOP race.he also is third now in the race.mccain will get states where there are many
moderate republicans.

(for my real predictions,version 18).


Version: 19

rep:thompson/romney 37.7%
dem:clinton/richardson 41.1%
ind:bloomberg/hagel 19.8%
grn:nader/brown 0.9%
lib:phillies/root 0.4%
other 0.3%

interesting election.


Version: 18

rep:Thompson/Romney 37%
dem:Clinton/Richardson 42%
ind:Bloomberg/Hagel 19%
grn:Nader/Kucinich 1%
lib:Phillies/Root 0.5%
other 0.5%

Like I said in my last prediction,little bit like 1992.


Version: 17

pop vote
dem:clinton/richardson 42%
rep:thompson/romney 37%
ind:bloomberg/hagel 19%
green:nader/kucinich 1%
lib:phillies/root 0.5%
other 0.5%

little bit like 1992.


Version: 16

best states
rep:thompson/romney 47.53% 1.utah 2.nebraska 3.wyoming
dem:clinton/richardson 50.83% 1.DC 2.massachusetts 3.illinois
ind:nader/kucinich 1.52% 1.alaska 2.vermont 3.maine
lib:phillies/root 0.68% 1.indiana 2.georgia 3.texas
other 0.46% 1.idaho 2.utah 3.alaska

clinton in dc 90.91%; in ma 66.34%; in ill 61.76%
thompson in utah 74.22%; in neb 68.84%; in wy 66.42%
nader in alaska 4.68%; in vermont 3.01%; in maine 2.90%
phillies in indiana 1.24%; in ga 1.02%; in texas 0.90%
other in idaho 1.12%; in utah 1.02%; in alaska 0.92%

close race.


Version: 15

rep:thompson/romney 44.5
dem:clinton/richardson 53.4%
ind:nader/kucinich 1.0%
lib:phillies/root 0.5%
other 0.6%


Version: 14

rep:thompson/romney 37%
dem:clinton/richardson 44%
ind:ventura/mccain 16%
green:nader/brown 1%
lib:phillies/root 0.5%
other 0.5%

wisconsin:normally i would put it as democrat,but i think ventura will get votes from independents who would normally
vote for clinton.
vermont:mostly independents are in vermont.
louisiana:although it went republican in past elections,clinton will know this is an important state and campaign alot here, thus giving her the state narrowly.


Version: 13

My previous maps had Bloomerg running.I now know that bhe said he would not run under any circumstances.However,I found clues of Ventura runnuing.

rep:thompson/romney:38%
dem:clinton/richardson:44%
ind:ventura/mccain:16%
green:nader/brown:1%
lib:phillies/paul:0.5%
other:0.5%


Version: 12

this map is based on the bloomberg/hagel ticket.
for my what if scenarios go to versions 7,8,and 9.


Version: 11

the winner of each state in this map is 3rd place in my real predictions.for my real predictions, go to version 10.


Version: 10

rep:thompson/guiliani dem:clinton/dodd ind:bloomberg/hagel
green:swift/brown lib:root/paul

dem:42.2% rep:34.9% ind:21.6% green:0.5% lib:0.6% other:0.2%
clinton and thompson will spend most of their campaign
insulting each other.bloomberg will cease this chance and get
almost 22% of the vote by saying what he will do instead of
insulting the other candidates.he will choose hagel as vp
and get even more votes from liberal republicans.if bloomberg does not run, nader willand choose kucinich as vp.

for my what if scenarios,check the last 3 versions.


Version: 9

this is a what if scenarios of bloomberg winning.for my other what if scenario check the last 2 versions.for my real predictions check version 11.


Version: 8

this is a what if scenario of a tie.for the republican win
scenario go to the last version.for my real predictions go
to version 11.


Version: 7

this is a what if scenario of thompson/paul winning.
for my real prediction, go to version 11.


Version: 6

rep:thompson/paul pop vote:32.6%
dem:clinton/dodd pop vote:43.4%
ind:bloomberg/hagel pop vote:22.1%
lib:root/phillies pop vote:0.6%
green:nader/brown pop vote:0.9%
other pop vote:0.4%

These are the results I think will happen.


Version: 5

{this is if bloomberg runs as an independent}


Version: 4

I think that bloomberg will run as an independent and Chuck Hagel will be vp.If so this is what the results might be.


Version: 3

I think that bloomberg will run.If he does, he'll be able to win some New England states.If he choses someone like Chuck Hagel for his vice president, he could win Nevada and maybe even some other western states.If he chooses someone like Dennis Kucinich,
he will have even more influence in New England states


Version: 1

I can't help but wonder who will win maine and florida.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: me (I-GA) 2008-11-03 @ 20:45:42
If you have anything you disagree with and want to know why i think what i think about whatever it is, please hesitate to ask.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 49/56 38/56 87/112 77.7% pie 54 1 561T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 94T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 41/52 19/52 60/104 57.7% pie 50 - 41T231
P 2008 President 44/56 25/56 69/112 61.6% pie 76 1 1031T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 32/52 16/52 48/104 46.2% pie 29 - 80T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 11/49 46/98 46.9% pie 19 - 72T235
P 2007 Governor 2/3 0/3 2/6 33.3% pie 3 60 155T167
Aggregate Predictions 235/301 128/301 363/602 60.3% pie


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