PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - PoliticalJunkie (I-WI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:20

Prediction Map
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Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages

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Prediction History
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Version: 16

Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Romney

Version: 14

Obama vs. McCain

Predictions state by state:

Alabama: Conservative dixiecrats still strong force despite Obama's strong force with blacks and the young generation, and a Goldwater state.

Alaska: With a strong history of going to the Republicans, I see no reason why Obama can win Alaska.

Arizona: Being popular in his own home state, it is likely McCain will receive its 10 electoral votes.

Arkansas: While Hillary Clinton would have been favored to take the state, Barack Obama is considerably weaker here, and given that it has McCain ahead by 20 points here, I give it to the Republicans.

California: A solid liberal stronghold which seems unlikely to go the Republicans right now.

Colorado: Although Obama is winning in the polls right now, don't be so sure as polls can be deceiving. This state went to Bob Dole in 1996, so despite it's democratic trendings, I narrowly put it in the Republican column.

Connecticut: Senator Lieberman could vigorously campaign for McCain here, but Connecticut is Connecticut and he could hurt McCain among anti-war voters.

Delaware: This state has a fairly liberal voting record for the presidency and looks favored for the Democrats to keep.

Florida: With seniors, Cubans, and military families, it seems Obama would be unlikely to take the 2000 battleground.

Georgia: See reasons for Alabama.

Hawaii: One of Obama's home states seems unlikely to go to McCain.

Idaho: This is one of Bush's biggest victories in 04, and Democrats would have a tough time of receiving it.

Illinois: Obama wins.

Indiana: The Hoosier State has a long history of going to the Republicans.

Iowa: McCain "skipped" Iowa while Obama put a lot of attention there, who will win in the general election?

Kansas: A republican stronghold, despite Obama's plains strengths.

Kentucky: A solid red state.

Louisiana: See reasons for Alabama.

Maine: A blue state, but the low black population could help McCain in the more conservative areas, but Obama will narrowly prevail.

Maryland: Safe Obama.

Massachusetts: I am keenly aware that the polls show the race somewhat close. I am going to say Obama based on that it voted for McGovern.

Michigan: Despite Obama skipped its primaries, Obama will do well in the urban areas.

Minnesota: A swing state in the north, McCain will win because he will have more democrats behind him than Obama will Republicans.

Mississippi: See Alabama

Missouri: Although Obama has the strong backing of Claire McCaskill, here it might not make a much of a positive difference with her mediocre approval ratings. McCain will win heavily in the rural areas.

Montana: Red state.

Nebraska: Last went D in 64. Safe R.

Nevada: Much like Colorado, but will be slightly closer.

New Hampshire: Where McCain's national political career started, why should Obama win here? Polls can be deceiving.

New Jersey: A blue state that will hold it's nose and narrowly vote for Obama.

New Mexico: Arizona is much like New Mexico, and given Arizona is going to McCain, New Mexico will likewise do the same.

New York: Despite angry Hillary Clinton democrats in N.Y., they will be partyline and vote for Obama.

North Carolina: There are lots of whites in N.C, and they do not like Obama very much.

North Dakota: Yes, one insane SurveyUSA has a poll out that shows Obama ahead of McCain, but North Dakota has such a large Republican history Democrats are unlikely to win.

Ohio: Will be close, very close, but even if the Democrats win Ohio, they will lose anyway.

Oklahoma: The home of Tom Coburn and Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma is a die-hard red state and has a very small chance in there.

Oregon: McCain will gain from Bush, and Bush only narrowly lost.

Pennsylvania: Excellent opportunity for McCain to pick up a blue state with lots of independent-minded Hillary Clinton Democrats willing to dump Obama to vote for McCain.

Rhode Island: A heavy blute state, Rhode Island should go Democrat in 08.

South Carolina: See Alabama

South Dakota: Red state.

Tennessee: Dixiecrats strong force in Tennessee.

Texas: If it went for Bush in 1992 and Dole in 1996, who will it go for in 08?

Utah: Democrats cannot win here.

Vermont: With socialists frequent throughout Vermont, Obama will easily win.

Virginia: Again, polls are flawed. With military veterans, and conservative southern whites, I cannot see how Virginia will go to Obama easily.

Washington: A state much like Oregon, however Washington is more liberal.

Washington D.C. With an immense black population and few conservatives, Obama should trounce McCain there.

West Virginia: A state with low income voters that will go for McCain.

Wisconsin: A swing-state that is very close, just a tiny little nudge will bring it to the Republicans. McCain's appeal among Democrats and Independents will provide that nudge.

Wyoming: Safe R.

Overall, expect a Republican victory as of right now.

Version: 13

Hypothetical McCain vs. Obama General Election:


Political Action Committee, worried about a Democratic President, runs powerful negative ads against Obama's past drug use. McCain benefits from this and after a strong showing in all the debates, McCain beats Obama in a surprisingly large win.

Version: 11

More accurate Hillary vs. Giuliani map:

Countdown: Next Wednesday: Hillary vs. McCain

Version: 7

Sorry about VA, that should be 40%

Clinton Vs. Giuliani Projections

Based on state polls, 2004 results, state trends, and national polls.

Version: 5

Hillary vs. Fred

Fred is helped in the South, however, in the North, Fred loses ground.


Barack Obama vs. Rudy Giuliani
Barack Obama vs. Fred Thompson
Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

Version: 4

Clinton, Obama, Gore, or Edwards against Paul, Tancredo, Hunter, or Cox.

Version: 3

Minnesota turned redder because there would be no independent that strong. Nothing new otherwise.

Version: 2

Dems pick up Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia. Republicans very narrowly pick up Maine because it seems to trend slowly Republican and the voters there don't seem that angry.

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 10 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 22/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 1 56T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 3 1 131T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 48/52 29/52 77/104 74.0% pie 26 - 1231
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 26 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 10 1 29T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 7 1 1T103
P 2008 President 53/56 48/56 101/112 90.2% pie 20 1 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 14 0 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 3 1 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 38/52 17/52 55/104 52.9% pie 19 - 61T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 7/49 47/98 48.0% pie 10 - 64T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 0/3 3/6 50.0% pie 1 105 135T167
Aggregate Predictions 391/432 257/432 648/864 75.0% pie

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