This is my final prediction. While my gut still says McCain will win, I will go with my brain this time.

I have switched Missouri, and have a feeling I will be switching Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio in the near future.

Done using the average of 8 predictors (RCP, Intrade.com, FederalReview, ElectionProjection, Cook, Electoral-vote.com, Rothenberg, Atlas)

Most likely to switch parties:
1. Iowa
2. New Mexico
3. Virginia
4. Colorado
5. Ohio
6. Nevada
7. Florida
8. North Carolina
9. Missouri
10. Indiana
11. North Dakota
12. Montana
13. Georgia
14. Arizona
15. West Virginia
16. South Dakota
17. New Hampshire

states most likely to flip: (in order)

1. Iowa
2. Virginia
3. New Mexico
4. Colorado
5. Nevada
6. Ohio
7. Florida
8. Missouri
9. North Carolina
10. Indiana
11. Montana
12. Georgia
13. North Dakota
14. West Virginia
15. Pennsylvania

Done mostly using Intrade.com's numbers, though I tweaked them in Montana and West Virginia. I will perfect the percentages later.

McCain is FUBAR

McCain seems to be catching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Bradley Effect will hurt Obama in Virginia and Michigan.

Please comment.

Somehow both parties managed to pick their weakest frontrunners for the general election.

In an incredible example of irony, the DNC's decision not to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates leads to a Republican win in November.

Barr's candidacy will kill McCain's chances at the White House.

Ed Thompson's Libertarian run is just enough to give Democrats Wisconsin and the election.

The way I see it, the Republicans' only hope is that the Dems nominate a horrible candidate. If the Republican nominee sticks to the failed neo-conservative ideology, they are doomed. If they distance themselves from that ideology, they will be accused of flip-flopping and are thus doomed. Unless the Democrats also nominate someone who respects the neo-conservative ideology (i.e. Obama), the Democrat will b favored to win.

The Whotewater scandal comes to hurt Clinton. President Rudy Giuliani.

A slight alteration of the previous map that changes the outcome significantly.

In the Giuliani vs. Clinton race, Mark Warner's senatorial candidacy makes Virginia the deciding state. After several recounts, the final certified results show Giuliani leading by a coule hundred votes.

Changed in an attempt to alter the map.

CO is the deciding state.

I'm now predicting that NY and ME will both go to the Dem by at least 15%.

Here is my opinon on the Dem and GOP primaries:

The Dems have only two candidates with a reasonable chance of winning:
Clinton
Obama

If the Dems want to go with electability, they will go with Obama, but Edwards could split the electability vote. If the Dems want to go with experience, they will go with Clinton, but Richardson coudl split the experience vote.

With the GOP, there are five candidates with a reasonable chance of winning:

Giuliani
Romney
McCain
Thompson
TBD (2nd place winner of Straw Poll)

McCain is going downhill, Romney is gaining, Giuliani is fairly stable, Thompson has no substance, and the fifth one has yet to appear.

Note that I am doubtful that Hillary will be the nominee. If she is, then I will change it.

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