Alabama: No change from 2004. Increased Black turnout, as well as racist votes.

Alaska: Closer than 2004, but Palin prevents this state from being a tossup.

Arkansas: Probably a strong swing toward the GOP, but this won't be the strongest state either for McCain.

Arizona: Surprisingly close, but in the end a good margin for McCain.

California: Huge margin for Obama, but not enough for 60%.

CO: Important race for Obama. If he wins this state he is pretty sure to win the presidency. I expect a fair margin for him, although closer than the polls.

CT: Massive lead here for Obama. Near 60%.

DE: Very close to 60% for Obama here, but not, despite Biden.

DC: Maybe 90%, but I say 89.95%.

FL: Slight lead for Obama, which surprises me.

GA: Close in the polls, but it will go handily to McCain tomorrow night.

HI: The largest margin outside of DC. Hometown advantage. (and perfect for the state ideologically)

ID: Closer than 2004, but still McCain territory.

IL: Big state for Obama, barely over 60%.

IN: The closest state other than MO. But this one will sadly go to McCain. I hope I am wrong on this one and Obama squeaks out a win.

IA: Impressive lead for Obama accompanied with a huge swing.

KS: Swings to Obama, at least keeping McCain under 60%.

KY: Tough state for Obama. Shouldn't pass 60%, but will be close.

LA: Another bad state for Obama, should go strongly McCain, mainly because of Katrina.

MD: Great state for Obama. Approaches 60%.

ME: Another great state for Obama, no worries over CD-2.

MA: Not a great state for Obama, but should barely go over 60% because of liberalism.

MN: Good state for Obama, but bad polling. I say it will be reasonably moderate margins here.

MI: Bad state for Obama, but the economy will override any GOP leads.

MO: The closest race. I expect a late night squeaker for Obama, but I wouldn't bet on this.

MS: Should be a closer margin than in 2004, but nothing that will change the winner.

MT: Very close polling, but it will give a small margin to McCain. Don't expect results here until late at night.

NE: Big win for McCain. He may run close in CD-2, but I expect it to go for him even if it is slightly close.

ND: Surprise me please. It will go McCain, but much closer than in 2004.

NC: Very close, but it will go Obama by a hair. I bet a few weeks ago it would go McCain, but I hope I give that dollar to my friend.

NJ: Win for Obama, no surprises.

NY: Win for Obama and 60% for that matter.

NH: Close win for Obama, expecting a closer margin than PA.

NM: Good win for Obama, but rather close, just not as much as the last two elections.

NV: A very close race here, but it will go for Obama by a fair margin.

OH: Not great for Obama, but it will vote for him. Again, close, but like North Dakota close.

OK: I think it will surprise us with a swing toward Obama, but not a huge one.

OR: Big margin for Obama, or will the absentees be silent tories?

PA: Will be close, but it will follow the polls. No surprises, in fact it swings for Obama!

RI: Small swing for Obama, enough for 60%.

SC: Swings toward Obama, but not enough for a win.

SD: Also swings toward Obama, but as a testament to the uncompetitiveness of PA, the margins in these two states are similar.

TN: One state that will swing against Obama, but barely.

TX: Swings toward Obama, hopefully building the Democrats for the future.

UT: Swing to Obama, under 70% thankfully. Yay Utah!

VT: Wonderful state. Over 60% Obama!!

VA: Another wonderful state. Good margin for Obama and he wins!

WA: My home. And it will go Obama by a strong margin!

WI: Nice margin for Obama here. Cheese.

WV: Bad for Obama, but the numbers here stay stable, maybe even swinging for him.

WY: Swing to Obama, but not by a lot.

Final Analysis Tomorrow!

Well, I think I might be overdoing it with OH, MO, and NC, but at least one will go for Obama if not all 3 plus FL. I'm hoping at least this scenario happens. As it stands now, there are many toss-ups and they are true tossups.

Some optimism for Obama, but I remain a skeptic of his massive lead. I wish I could whole-heartedly believe it, but it would be foolish to trust the polls so strongly. Nevertheless, it appears that Obama is headed for a win.

Not a whole lot of changes. Even though Obama is doing better I'm keeping my optimism limited. I think he could pull off wins in NC, NV, FL, OH, MO, IN, MT, and NH, but I don't want to be too hopeful. This is sort of my worst case scenario with the current polling.

The election looks like it will come down to CO, VA, and other close states will include OH, FL, NV, NM, NH, IN, and NC.

Fewer leans, most states are almost sure to be one way or the other, or are truly tossups now that the election is getting closer. It will be interesting to see what happens in some of these surprising new tossups, but most of them will end up with John McCain; luckily Obama has a strong base of states to back him up.

Maybe Alaska will be a tossup this year!

Sadly, this is my map. I really don't want McCain to win, and I don't think he will, but at the current moment, this may be too optimistic for Obama. I eliminated many of my tossups as we now know the nominee for the GOP and I'm guessing Obama will win the nomination although Clinton could still manage a miracle.

Safe States:
Obama:
Illinois and Hawaii - Home States
CA, VT, NY, Maryland, DC, RI - Liberalism and perfect states for him

McCain:
WY, UT, ID, NE, IN - GOP Strongholds (although weaker than 2004)
TN, AL, LA, OK - I think race will influence voters; I don't see these states going for Obama at all

Lean States:
Obama:
WA, MN, CT, ME, DE - Usually tossup states that are good ground for Obama
MA and NJ - bad territory for Obama, but will vote for the Dem

McCain:
AZ - Home state (otherwise would be a tossup)
KS, ND, SD, MT, TX, AK - Would be safe, but these are good for Obama, and may be in play depending on what happens
MS, NC, SC, Georgia - States with large African-American pop., which with high turnout may shift the election
KY, WV - Normally would be a tossup, but Obama doesn't connect well with this region

Tossups (in order of competitiveness - least to most):
AR: Probably lean McCain, but Bush is highly unpopular here. I'll see how the polls contend - MCCAIN
OR: Good territory for Obama, but Oregon is still a tossup, if polls show a continued trend for Obama it may be a lean state - OBAMA
FL: Once a competitive state, the Dems have largely lost their vote and I doubt Obama can gain back much of it - MCCAIN
MI: With the state of the economy, I don't see Michigan going for McCain, but it is still not a great state for Obama - OBAMA
IA: A great state for Obama, but it remains a tossup because it always is - OBAMA
MO: Not so great a state for Obama, but I think it will be competitive; all about turnout - MCCAIN
VA: Similar to Missouri, but I think this could be more competitive than I think - MCCAIN
WI: A state that likes Obama and likes McCain, will be competitive - OBAMA
NH: Great for Obama and McCain, so it will be competitive, but the Iraq War give it to - OBAMA
NM: Not that great for Obama, but I don't see it going for McCain for some reason, very competitive - OBAMA
PA: Horrible for Obama, but it will be difficult for McCain nonetheless, the polls say - MCCAIN
OH: Similar to Pennsylvania, but more competitive, at least in my mind - MCCAIN
NV: Obama has an edge here, but McCain will still have the GOP establishment - OBAMA
CO: The ultimate tossup. I think it will go for Obama, but the race leans toward McCain right now and a lot of votes need to shift in Colorado; very, very competitive - MCCAIN

This is an Obama-McCain matchup. It may be too friendly in Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. I can see Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia going for Obama, but he needs to reach out to Hispanic voters.

I added some more tossups for states that are closer than I expected. I'm tempted to switch Arkansas to Dems and Nevada to GOP, but I want to see who the candidates are before making a more sure prediction. I'll probably make a much more confident prediction in Feb. when we know who the candidates are (probably).

I lowered my confidence ratings on virtually all of the states because it is too early to call most states "strong" for either party. We don't even know the candidates yet!

Lots of leans and tossups because it is so far away. In fact, they should technically be tossups for the most part because they can't be predicted this soon. Who knows if Alaska will suddenly become a Democratic stronghold?

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