Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	349
Rep	189
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	259
Rep	142
Ind	0
Tos	137

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+97	0	0	0	20	2	252	+97
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-97	23	3	189	-97
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
94	48	40	4	2

Analysis

Barack Obama is elected the 44th and first African-American president of the U.S.

These states are close and are the one's I am most worried about calling: Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. One of these will probably be the closest state of the night. McCain has surged late in both Ohio and Florida. McCain cannot afford to lose either, and both campaigns have focused their last days on these states. I give them very tentatively to Obama. In Ohio, Obama may have enough of any early vote lead beat off a McCain late surge. Missouri is also hanging on a razor thin edge and could go either way. It's status as a bellwether will seriously tested and I give to Obama on the premise of it still being a bellwether. North Carolina remains close, but I believe McCain has shored it up at the last minute.

Even if McCain wins all these states he still loses and that is why I am confident of an Obama win. He has solid leads in all of the states won by Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004. Minnesota has tightened but Obama retains the edge. McCain's campaigning in Pennsylvania is for nothing; he's still behind. Furthermore, Obama has pulled away in Nevada, and has significant leads in Colorado and Virginia, and winning either of these two would put him over 270.

Obama has made significant inroads in very red states Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Georgia. They will be much closer than four years ago, but I expect McCain to prevail in all these states. Strong libertarian candidacies in Montana, and heavy black turnout in Georgia could make these states interesting.

At the end of the day: Obama had the better organization, a more effective message, and a political climate conducive to that message. McCain proved erratic in the last days. But in the larger scope, as I argued, this win was one long in the making. Only historians can decide the significance of this election, but I believe it will be looked back as being very significant.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 182

Hope is not an election strategy.

McCain's endless campaigning has made a dent in Pennsylvania, but it will not be enough to turn the tide, with one day left to campaign. Some suggest that McCain's campaigning is part of a strategy to propel Republicans to victory in PA-10, PA-11, and PA-12. Maybe, but the fact that Obama is not campaigning in the state himself seems to state how confident he is of victory there.

Meanwhile, the candidates are both in Ohio, where I've argued McCain could not afford to lose. McCain's chances are slipping away there. I've place N.C. back slightly into his column because he started taking the threat seriously there. But his campaign has been a shambles, make no mistake about it. Losing Ohio is going to be his death-knell, which is why both he and Palin are now there.

Indiana is close. Biden and Palin have recently been hitting the southern end of the state, which will the key to either sides victory there. Southern Indiana is the home of IN-9, where Baron Hill, a conservative Democrat will win. What will this imply for the McCain and Obama campaigns here: Between Democrats and social conservatives, who trumps? This might be the key to analyzing Indiana on election night.

Version: 181

Last weekend of campaign. On Monday I will make Final Predictions. Get ready to make your election cocktails. Those who think McCain is coming back are going to need them when they realize how woefully misguided they have been. McCain is solidifying his base, but he is not using language that would lure independents, moderates and undecideds to him. Even still, the number of undecideds is not enough for McCain to even get the vast majority of them and win.

Version: 180

McCain's electoral headache: Last weekend of the campaign and the fight is entirely over states Bush won in 2004. Meanwhile Ohio is gripping that it won't be as decisive as it was last time. Oh boodyhoodyhoo. That god that stupid red-blue map is broken. The 50 state strategy will reign supreme!

Version: 179

It is fitting that McCain has decided to make Pennsylvania the site of his own personal Gettysburg. Winning there would be decisive, losing there would be complete defeat. We will know soon enough my friends...

Version: 177

Is McCain thinking that by campaignin in blue states like Iowa and Pennsylvania he can distract Obama from the close races going on in North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida and elsewhere?

Or is Obama trying to trick McCain into wasting his time Pennsylvania so he can win these close red states?

Lot's of close states out there at the moment, but they are all on turf Bush on in 2004. With the GOP putting money in Montana, things look bad with a week left in the campaign.

Version: 176

One Week Away from Change We Can Believe In?

And I'm not even joking. Do you find yourself amazed that one week is left campaign in this campaign?

Do you think that this is where McCain wanted to be one week out?
What would you have said had the roles been reversed?

McCain is now trying to keep the campaign from falling into dissarray and dismay. Those who think that McCain knows something, is not listening to the rest of campaign that is fighting right now. Either that or McCain is delusional, with a bunker mentality that has him moving around division that don't exist and visiting states that aren't in play.

Meanwhile things have deteriorated for him in Arizona, and now even I have to concede that.

Florida, Missouri...these states are playing the see-saw game right now.

Version: 175

The day of reckoning draws nigh...

Missouri's claim to being a bellwether will be sorely tested.

Version: 174

THE REALITY BASED COMMUNITY

I used to think it was only the political Left that refused to acknowledge reality, that believed that their wishes and desires trumped everything else. I now see, and have seen for a while now, the same obnoxious trend develope on the Right as well. It started with the policies they advocated and the things they believed, and now it extends to this election and what they think will happen. That they cannot see the their party is going to lose, and why this is and would be the case, is simply startling to me, and indicates a power symptom of decline.

Election guide. My friends, I have a very simple election guide that you can look at so you can be in bed early. The first two states to close, Kentucky and Indiana, are important bellwethers.

House:

IN-3 Souder vs. Montagano. If this race is close, or Souder is trailing, expect big Dem gains.

Senate:

Kentucky McConnell vs. Lunsford. Ditto what I said above. McConnell's losing would mean the Dems get 60 Senate seats.

President:

Indiana McCain vs. Obama. If it's close, McCain's toast. There is no plan available to McCain that doesn't involve winning Indiana.

So, watch those races.

Version: 173

Well, my friends, this race looks to be juuuust about over...

And it's probably too late for McCain to distance himself from Palin, as he tried to also do with Bush. I will have more extensive analysis on election eve. But there are few people left, even Republicans, who are maintaining McCain's going to win. And I know a few Republicans, a few who even voted for Bush, who are pulling the lever for Obama here in Indiana.

Although I did listen to a neocon, one last remaining left, who maintained that the polls are wrong, McCain's campaign despite all evidence is doing fine and knows exactly what it's doing. He apparently believes that McCain has Obama right where he wants him.

Honestly, I'm not even finding the presidential race exciting anymore.

Now I'm all about Congress, where I eagerly await the defeats of some much deserving pols, including the stupid Tim Mahoney, the awful Michele Bachmann, and maybe, just maybe, Mark Souder, where the RNCC is now sending some money I just heard.

Also, speculation is now on for 2012. Will it be Romney, saying I could do so much better you know, backed by the all the sensible Republicans, versus Palin, saying I would've won had old man McCain not been on the ticket, backed by all the mouth breathers (and Bill Kristol)?

Lastly, to Republican members of Congress: have you finally had it wiht Boehner?

Version: 172

As usual, the race is being fought solely on Bush country ( :P ), which indicates why McCain will lose. How will the Joe Schmoes out there react to Palin's $150,000 shopping spree I wonder? Let's ask undecided Ohio voters for the ten billionth time (yeah, you just like messing with us don't you Ohio, always being undecided...only joking).

Version: 171

McCain's new strategy is just not to lose too badly. Those who say that McCain has been written off too soon, or who say that he's coming back, don't understand the gravity of the situation.

Version: 170

Powell endorses Obama, I'm somewhat amazed... But does it really matter at the end of the day? I don't think so. Things are solidifying into an Obama win...two weeks to election day.

Version: 169

Victory seems to be assured for Obama. McCain's goal now is not to lose too badly, and prevent significant down-ticket losses.

Version: 168

The close states right now are North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio. Missouri and Ohio flip barely to McCain right now, giving him a definite bounce but, showing how far behind he really is it isn't enough. He has to pour the remainder of his resources into these states. More ominously, Obama is back above 270 solidly in his column.

Meanwhile in-fighting breaks out among various neoconservatives and McCainiacs over who is responsible for Palin being placed on the ticket, as the war of words of the 2008 debacle already begins... http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/radio/2008/10/15/horton/index1.html

Version: 167

Was there a sinking feeling inside McCain at the end of tonight's debate when he realized it was all over? The last debate ended, and the candidates make a mad dash toward the finish line...but Obama has a substantial lead. No one had a lead like this in 2004. More significantly the Dow dropped 700 points today, the the S&P 500 was down 9%. My friends, hold your breath...

Version: 166

On eve of final debate, McCain is still significantly behind. Can he reverse he last lousy performance. The race still wide open, anything could happen, McCain could still have one more maverick move up his sleeve!

Version: 165

Does McCain have one more game changer in him...?

Version: 164

The fate of America: Obama leads decisively, as McCain unleashes angry mobs in a last ditch effort to turn the tide.

Version: 163

The general trend is moving in Obama's favor, and he still has over 270 EV's safely in his column. Most interesting state right now is West Virginia, which has not been polled much. My guess is that Obama should have a chance there, my only question, the one I've had for a while, is whether his race is an impediment. But West Virginia is hurting and that might be enough to put it into Obama's column, shockingly.

Version: 162

McCain is fighting to keep Indiana and North Carolina in his column. Obama now has secured enough EVs safely to all but assure victory.

Version: 161

McCain is struggling now and in a load of trouble. The trail of home forclosures tells the story. . .

Version: 159

McCain is prepared to push back hard; there is still time for him to do that too. Still, he's way down.

Version: 158

McCain is also moving money into Minnesota. Does he know something we don't?

Version: 157

McCain has huge problems.

Version: 153

Some adjustments are indeed in order. Obama has the edge, but his weak debate performance have to be factored in. If I'm Obama, I'm worried. Although McCain blundered earlier in the week with the Wall Street bailout. So maybe they even out. As of now there is no reason to believe McCain wins.

Version: 151

McCain is in serious trouble, and the fact that he, for some reason, wants to suspend his campaign is not a good sign.

Version: 150

Obama takes decisive lead after heavy media coverage of the crisis on Wall Street. The Palin effect appears to be wearing off as well, as Wall Street has stole Wasilla's thunder.

Version: 149

McCain continues to be in serious trouble.

Version: 148

It is now clear that McCain's lead has evaporated and Obama has taken decisive lead.

Version: 146

Actually, the number of close states is large, even if it appears that the old red-blue map is emerging again, with some new modifications of course. If Obama starts pulling ahead again though, he might still change the map a lot.

Version: 144

Amid market fluctuations, Obama and McCain go back and forth. Hart to stay who emerges from the miasma, but as of now it looks like Obama is pulling back out front-slightly.

Version: 142

Unclear what's happening right now. Obama appears to be edging back ahead, but really the race is right now in a dead heat awaiting one candidate or the other to move ahead.

Version: 141

Look closely, and you'll see McCain shifting the fight into Democratic terroritory, this could prove decisive against Obama if he places him on the defensive in places like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Version: 140

McCain and Obama locked in tight race: Small states prove decisive

Version: 139

Stunning. Cinderalla man McCain has continued to divide-and-conquer Obama's once formidable lead. Really this should still be viewed as a tie race, yet one that Obama is losing. If the election were held today, McCain would win...barely.

Version: 138

Obama still clings to his lead.

Version: 137

McCain nipping at Obama's heels.

Version: 136

Things continue to move in McCain's direction, Obama retains the edge.

Version: 135

McCain gets his post convention bounce, bringing the race into a TIE on the national level. But in the states, the individual states that will decide the election, Obama retains the advantage.

Version: 134

Thus far McCain has shored up Alaska with his choice of Palin, but otherwise not much has bounced McCain's way post-convention, and the playing field still favors Obama.

Version: 133

It remains to be seen what sort of post convention bounce McCain will get, as of now he is behind.

Version: 132

This is the first map to fully appreciate Obama-Biden vs. McCain-Palin. Sarah Palin says she prepared for a fight; that's good because she has her work cut out for her.

Version: 131

Obama gets a slight bounce from the Dem convention. His major task is unifying the party. If Hillary Democrats vote for McCain is significant numbers, it could yet lead to a McCain win. McCain 's campaign understands this and is actively courting these disgruntled voters.

Version: 129

The first map to take into account Joe Biden as Obama's running mate. Slight movement is yielded to Obama, putting him back, ever so slightly into the lead. Mainly the map is getting polarized again along lines seen in 2000 and 2004, making it seem less and less likely Obama or McCain will radically change the map.

Version: 127

More bad news for Obama; his leads are slipping away everywhere.

Version: 126

As was speculated, August has been McCain's month. He's back out in front in Indiana, and he put Ohio in his column securely a slim win over Obama nationally. A close squeaker win, and a major coup for McCain.

Version: 125

McCain is close to the cusp of being ahead, but just barely. It will be interesting to finally see the Veep picks and how they affect the race. What if Obama feels he must pick Clinton for running mate? Would that be a wise choice? I'm one who is against it, but I still see how it would happen. Otherwise my guess is between Bayh and Biden. McCain has a thinner amount of choices, and this is the one I'm more curious about.

Version: 124

This is McCain's chance to pull ahead of Obama. Can he do it?

Version: 123

Obama won't be happy to find out on election day that he frittered away his lead.

Version: 121

In another good sign for McCain, Missouri is moving in his direction. Is overtaking Obama still possible?

Version: 120

This race has most certainly been tightening. A reasonable sized shift towards McCain is occurring during the first part of August. It is not certain whether momentum can be maintained for McCain; Obama is still favored to win at this point.

Version: 118

A map in flux right now?

Version: 117

There are signs that McCain is arresting and reversing Obama's momentum... McCain's time is running out, and thus far he hasn't shown himself to be a good a campaigner as Bush, while Obama seems to be at least as good if not better than Kerry.

Version: 116

Some have suggested McCain has arrested Obama's surge. Is this happening?

Version: 110

Obama still has the advantage here.

Version: 109

Thus begins the winter of McCain's discontent. Obama must be considered the early favorite for victory as Obama is close to an electoral college wipeout.

Version: 108

The McCain campaign is in huge trouble as Obama gains his largest lead ever.

Version: 104

It looks like Obama is slipping, but this is just the race stabilizing after some rapid movement in Obama's direction.

Version: 103

Barack Obama still out in front but McCain has stanched his losses.

Version: 102

Improbably, McCain is back out in front in Missouri...is this the sign of movement back to McCain?

Version: 101

Obama has now emerged into a strong lead over McCain.

Version: 100

In more signs that McCain is melting, Indiana is now competitive. As a Hoosier resident, I don't find this at all surprising and was looking for it to happen.

Version: 99

Obama's knocking em down at the moment.

Version: 97

Obama holding on to his lead, but it's tenuous at best.

Version: 95

Obama and McCain are reaching the first leg of the race.

Version: 94

Obama is on the verge of a break away here.

Version: 93

Getting Clinton's supporters on his side is the new task that Obama has before him.

Version: 92

Obama slightly ahead for now.

Version: 91

We start the summer off with a close race between McCain and Obama, but this time will be nothing like Bush vs. Gore and Kerry.

Version: 90

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: At long last, Obama is back in front in Michigan, but it's far too close to count McCain out. McCain has done surprisingly well in the state, and snagging it could spell disaster for Obama.

Version: 89

Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Version: 88

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama back out in front for the first time in a while, but McCain could still overtake him at any point.

Version: 87

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama has barely surpassed McCain, but it's a very close race right now.

Version: 86

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: More bad news for the GOP as Obama continues to close the gap.

Version: 85

John McCain vs. Barack Obama

Version: 84

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: After Obama has finally clinched the Democrat nomination, we can now how the will finally shape up and Obama has made up a big difference in a short amount of time to where he is back in position to overtake McCain.

Version: 83

John McCain vs. Barack Obama.

Version: 81

John McCain vs. Barack Obama.

Version: 80

John McCain vs. Barack Obama

Version: 79

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Now that Obama has certainly locked up the nomination, he can begin the turnaround- right now.

Version: 78

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Barack Obama better start focusing on McCain if he wants to win as he's far behind.

Version: 77

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Any momentum that Obama had, seems to be gone now.

Version: 76

John McCain vs. Barack Obama

Version: 75

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: John McCain still looks strong.

Version: 74

John McCain vs. Barack Obama

Version: 73

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: After the PA primary, McCain is still ahead. As long as Obama has to keep battling Clinton, it's hard to say that McCain is facing much competition at the moment.

Version: 72

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obama is down but not out. Wrapping up the Democrat nomination will go a long way to putting him back in competition, but John McCain still maintains a position of strength.

Version: 71

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obama is hanging for dear life in Massachusetts, but the numbers are generally trending back in his favor. Hillary Clinton looks less and less likely to be the nominee, unless she can convince Democratic superdelegats she is more electable than Obama, and that isn't at all certain.

Version: 70

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obama is way behind in Florida, showing how hard the road Obama must travel still is.

Version: 69

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: The question earlier was: has Barack Obama turned the corner. It appears he has. He still has a lot of ground to gain back to catch McCain, but it seems he has stopped the bleeding, arrest McCain's surge and is beginning to come back.

Version: 68

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Is Obama finally turning the corner? No word yet on why McCain is doing so poorly is strongly GOP territory just like Obama is doing in strongly Democratic territory. This maybe a sign of a very fickle electorate this year. People are certainly in a bad mood.

Version: 67

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obamania seems to be over nationally, but with Obama coming back in the primary he could still launch himself into contention with McCain.

Version: 66

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: McCain is benefitting from primary battle that is greatly damaging Obama. It remains to be seen if when the dust settles Obama can craft a comeback plan, but it will have to be a major comeback, though McCain is not invulnerable and we have yet to know if there is going to be a significant third-party challenge on the right. Even a Nader 2000 showing of 3% could make McCain go down in a close race. For now, McCain is enjoying the ride.

Version: 65

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Onwards and upwards for McCain. If Obama can still finish off Clinton, he still has the chance to come back and defeat McCain, but it's going to be tough.

Version: 64

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: John McCain has reached his highest level in campaigning, benefitting from a greatly battered Obama.

Version: 63

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: With Obama sinking, is Hillary Clinton going to be able to take the nomination still yet?

Version: 62

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obama is slipping, and it still remains to be seen whether he'll be the Dem nominee with his recent poor performance.

Version: 61

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Obama continues to struggle.

Version: 60

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: McCain is now firmly ahead in this matchup.

Version: 59

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: McCain has been continually pulling ahead of Obama. Once again he's on top by making gains in reliably Democratic states, though Obama has some strengths elsewhere in GOP territory. My guess is moderates flock to McCain while conservatives abandon him (also don't forget unhappy Clinton voters), but independents go more to Obama.

Version: 58

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: McCain back out ahead, but just barely, reflecting the continued closeness of this race.

Version: 57

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama wins today but the race is close.

Version: 56

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama wins today, but by a narrow margin. This race stays very competitive.

Version: 55

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: As Obama has recently face setback in the Democratic Primary, so does he find himself struggling against John McCain. He still wins, but worrisome for him is how weak he is against McCain in traditionally Democratic states, while McCain has mostly shored up much of the states Bush carried in 2004, with the notable exception of some Ohio and Missouri, which is why Obama still wins at this point.

Version: 54

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama still ahead, but struggling in Democratic territory.

Version: 53

Barack Obama vs. John McCain.

Version: 52

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Obama appearing to pull ahead, but McCain is even and persistently in the game. It is very possible that McCain could bounce back in the near future. This still reflects a very close result. Obama does well from coast to coast and even the middle of America, but he also struggles in Democratic strongholds like Massachusetts and Maryland.

Version: 51

Barack Obama vs. John McCain: Close and closer. This race promises to as tight as the last two elections. Obama may have trouble pulling ahead of McCain. Right now he maintains a slight edge.

Version: 50

Barack Obama vs. John McCain.

Version: 49

Barack Obama vs. John McCain. Obama has a slight lead.

Version: 48

Barack Obama vs. John McCain. After closing the gap, Obama pulls ahead. It remains to be seen whether Obama can maintain his slight lead over McCain or even expand, but Obama has momentum right now.

Version: 47

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: Continues to get closer, reflecting their closeness in the polls. Here, we see a close race comparable to 2000 and 2004, accept Obama breaks out in the West over McCain.

Version: 46

John McCain vs. Barack Obama: With Obama as the Democrat nominee, the tables slowly begin to turn on McCain, because Obama is a stronger candidate against McCain than Clinton is. McCain still wins, but the race tightens.

Version: 45

John McCain vs. Barack Obama. Though I have long held that Clinton would win the Democrat nomination, it appears that this year is a year for surprises. First, McCain as the GOP nominee. And now the increasing likelihood that Obama will be the Democrat nominee. And while I'm never one to doubt or underestimate the Clintons, I do think Hillary is in desperate straights now. Only time will tell. But I'm currently going to pit Obama against McCain, which is good for the Democrats because he's the stronger candidate against McCain.

Version: 44

John McCain vs. Hillary Clinton. John McCain is a good position to beat Clinton even in Democratic territory, and he can begin campaigning for president while Clinton must still dispatch Obama. John McCain wins because he is the GOP's strongest candidate against either Clinton or Obama.

Version: 43

John McCain vs. Hillary Clinton. McCain wins easily, because McCain is the GOP's strongest candidate with large amounts of crossover appeal.

Version: 42

McCain is back! If McCain is the nominee against Hillary Clinton he appears to have a decisive advantage, although the race is still very competitive, he can win.

Version: 41

John McCain vs. Hillary Clinton: McCain starts off with several key advantages over Clinton, because McCain is the GOP's strongest candidate at this point. McCain is able to appeal even in Democratic areas and is thus to barely squeak by Clinton and thus win, although notice the closeness of this race still.

Version: 40

In a Huckabee vs. Obama matchup: Kentucky flips to the GOP.

Version: 39

Believe it: North Carolina will be a battleground this time around.

Version: 38

Clinton has again emerged above 270 in EV's strongly or leaning in her column.

Version: 34

Clinton does well against most Republicans in Arkansas, but she would struggle in the state against a Mike Huckabee candidacy.

Version: 29

Clinton is now back to having over 270 electoral votes firmly in her column.

Version: 27

Are the Republicans starting to make a rebound, now that a Clinton victory has seemed all but assured. I doubt it. But if they can flip Florida around, that at least is an encouraging sign for the GOP that all is not lost. It remains to be seen whether this this is just another false start, or the beginning of what would be a massive comeback. But Florida is usually known for being unpredictable and confounding in terms of predictability.

Version: 26

Notice that Clinton has almost all the states that John Kerry won in 2004, already in her column, while the battleground states comprise mainly states that Bush won and a Republican must hold.

Version: 23

Hillary Clinton has not been slowed down this week, despite the race continuing to focus more and more on her (even more than the lameduck President). This map reflects her growing strengths in storming Republican stronghold while maintaing a grip on most of the key Democratic "blue" states.

Version: 21

Still having problems with my map, but this is my latest prediction.

Version: 20

My apologies for any mistakes or discrepencies in this map. Unfortunately, all my setting went back to default and thus I had to do a prediction for every single state all over again. Hopefully I will work out all the kinks (if there are any) over the course of several predictions.

Version: 19

What Clinton is doing electorally is wrapping up all the "blue state" battlegrounds and taking the fight to "red state" terroritory and even to places once considered "off limits" for a Democrat.

Version: 18

Clinton is assured of victory at this point. The GOP's Southern bastion is crumbling.

Version: 17

It appears that the slight fall earlier was only a blip, Clinton is safely ahead.

Version: 16

One of the reasons Clinton is being so successful is because she is competitive in the South, picking up states her husband carried in 1992 and 1996, thus giving her a lead in the Electoral College of comparable size. It appears that nothing has really arrested the Clinton surge, but it's still early and still something to keep an eye on.

Version: 15

Hillary Clinton still maintains a wide lead over any of the Republican hopefuls. My only question is if Clinton has now peaked, and the turn around is beginning, or if she has just stablized her lead. I don't know at this point. Missouri looks like it be close, much closer than last time.

Version: 14

Hillary Clinton is now running so far ahead of her prospective GOP opponent that she has a large enough lead in enough states to give the win outright without even contesting the emerging battleground states.

Version: 13

Republican chances are starting to collapse in the face of the Hillary Clinton juggernaught.

Version: 10

Still Clinton, still mopping up.

Version: 8

Clinton is still continuing to plow on like a juggernaught. The key is that Clinton is able like her husband before her to punchholes in the Republican southern "fortress" without which they cannot win the White House. They Republicans cannot afford to lose Ohio, Missouri or Florida. But with defeat looming in places like Virginia and Arkansas to boot, a lose for them turns into a rout.

Version: 7

Clinton appears to be heading for a major victory now. Her momentum has been building against the unknown Republican for some time.

Version: 6

As before, the supposed matchup is Democrat Hillary Clinton vs. a generic, unknown Republican.

Version: 5

As mentioned in the prediction: analysis assumes Clinton as Democratic nominee.

Version: 4

Although I mention earlier the difficulty of making predictions before the candidates are known, I will venture a new prediction based on the notion that it is fairly likely that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. This prediction presumes Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. The Republican primary is still wide open and so this map is Clinton versus generic Republican. Still, with one candidate known, the landscape changes dramatically as Clinton breaks the Red-Blue stanglehold to emerge victorious in a small landslide. She does this in part by breaking into Southern states with big Democratic registration that voted for her husband and by pulling ahead in several important swing states that have of late seemed out of reach to Democrats. Clinton becomes America's first female president.

Version: 3

This is all purely speculative until we have a better idea of who the eventual nominees from each party will be, whether there will be a strong third party challenger or not, and what issues will be predominating.

Version: 1

A close race which assumes a somewhat strong third party challenger (like Perot in 1996). Since all candidates here are considered generic, this landscape will certainly change when we have certain candidates.

Version History

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Member Comments

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:18:38
The First Returns are already in: Dixville Notch goes for O The hearty folks in the northern New Hampshire town have renewed their Election Day tradition, heading to the polls just after midnight. The results: Obama 15, McCain 6. And, folks, those are real votes not exit polls. President Bush won the town in 2004.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:46:14
as did Dole in '96 & Bush I in '92. Good analysis. I think Obama takes FL & OH by decent margins. MO, IN & MT are extremely tight.

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By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 02:16:15
Apparently it's the first time a Democrat has won the town since 1968.

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By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:38:11
Hubert Humphrey isn't really our best candidate ever... Are they actually ALLOWED to do that?

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