PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - texaslefty (I-UT) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:18

Prediction Map
texaslefty MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
texaslefty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem353
 
Rep185
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem278
 
Rep145
 
Ind0
 
Tos115
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+80+101000202252+101
Rep000-80-101233185-101
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
97504142
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Here it is...my final prediction!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 16

After a long hiatus, I'm back. This map reflects how I see each state going, based on formulas I worked on last week. I am already working like crazy to update everything, so expect some more frequent changes in my map later on. I will have complete predictions and explain how my formulas, which are very similar to Scott's on Election Projection, work.


Version: 14

Unemployment rate

Green = -0.1 to 0.1 standard deviations (-0.12% to +0.12% away from average)

Red = Below average
Blue = Above average

30% = 0.1 - 0.5 standard deviations (0.13 - 0.62% away from average)
40% = 0.6 - 1.0 standard deviations (0.63 - 1.24% away from average)
50% = 1.1 - 1.5 standard deviations (1.25 - 1.86% away from average)
60% = 1.6 - 2.0 standard deviations (1.87 - 2.48% away from average)
70% = 2.1 - 2.5 standard deviations (2.49 - 3.10% away from average)
80% = 2.6 - 3.0 standard deviations (3.11 - 3.72% away from average)
90% = 3.1+ standard deviations (3.72%+ away from average)


Version: 13

Homeownership rate

Green = -0.2 to 0.2 standard deviations from average of 69% (-0.94% to 0.94% away from average)

Red = Below average
Blue = Above average

30% = 0.2 - 0.6 standard deviations (0.94 - 2.82% away from average)
40% = 0.6 - 1.0 standard deviations (2.82 - 3.70% away from average)
50% = 1.0 - 1.4 standard deviations (3.70 - 5.58% away from average)
60% = 1.4 - 1.8 standard deviations (5.58 - 7.46% away from average)
70% = 1.8 - 2.2 standard deviations (7.46 - 9.34% away from average)
80% = 2.2 - 2.6 standard deviations (9.34 - 11.22% away from average)
90% = 2.6+ standard deviations (11.22%+ away from average)


Version: 12

Infant Mortality Rates

Green = 7.0 (U.S. Average)
Blue = Below Average
Red = Above Average

30% = 0.1-0.3 Standard Deviations from average (0.24 - 0.72% away)
40% = 0.4-0.6 Standard Deviations from average (0.72 - 1.20% away)
50% = 0.7-0.9 Standard Deviations from average (1.20 - 1.68% away)
60% = 1.0-1.2 Standard Deviations from average (1.68 - 2.16% away)
70% = 1.3-1.5 Standard Deviations from average (2.16 - 2.64% away)
80% = 1.5+ Standard Deviations from average (2.64%+ away)


Version: 11

Percent of each population that is Asian according to the Census.

30 = 0-2%
40 = 2.1-4%
50 = 4.1-6%
60 = 6.1-8%
California = 12.1%
Hawaii = 41.8%


Version: 10

Percent of each population that is Native American/Native Alaskan according to the Census.

30% = 0.0 - 0.9%
40% = 1.0 - 1.9%
50% = 2.0 - 4.9%
60% = 5.0 - 6.9%
70% = 7.0 - 8.9%
80% = 9.0 - 10.9%
90% = 11.0%+


Version: 9

Percent of the population of each state that is black according to the Census.

30% = 0.0 - 6.0%
40% = 6.1 - 12.0%
50% = 12.1 - 18.0%
60% = 18.1 - 24.0%
70% = 24.1 - 30.0%
80% = 30.1 - 37.0%
90% = 37.1% and up (DC is 57.7% black)


Version: 8

Percentage of the population that is White (including White Hispanics). Percentage is according to percentage counted by the Census Bureau.

http://www.census.gov/statab/ranks/rank05.html


Version: 7

Resident Population 65 Years and Older

Green = At or very near average (National average = 12.4%)
Blue = Above national average
Red = Below national average


Version: 6

Resident Population Under 18 Years Old

I used my skills in statistics to figure out the standard deviation, which was about 4%. Almost every state was within 4% of the average, so I decided to use increments of 0.1 standard deviations, or 0.4%, to arrange the states. The national average is 25%.


Green = average (within 0.1 standard deviation, or 0.4%, of the average)

Blue = Percent of residents under age 18 above national average
Red = Percent of residents under age 18 below national average


30% blue or red = 0.1-0.2 standard deviation (0.5-1.2% above or below average)

40% blue or red = 0.3-0.4 standard deviation (1.3-2.0% above or below average)

50% blue or red = 0.5-0.6 standard deviation (2.1-2.8% above or below average)

60% blue or red = 0.7-0.9 standard deviation (2.9-4.0% above or below average)

80% blue or red = 1.2-1.3 standard deviation (4.9-5.6% above or below average)

90% blue or red = 1.4-1.5 standard deviation (5.7-6.4% above or below average)


Version: 5

Now I thought I'd do a little something different. Here are my travels in the U.S.

Blue - Never Been
Light Blue - Airport Only
Pink - Drove Through
Red - Visited
Light Green - Lived In After Moving
Green - Where I'm From!

Here's an outline of my travels, in the non-dark blue states.

Alabama - drove through en route to Florida on a church trip in '96

Arizona - lived in Tucson for a year

Arkansas - visited boyfriend's step-family in Hot Springs

California - My Home!

Colorado - ski trip to Breckenridge in '97 and convention in Denver in '04

Florida - church trip to Panama City Beach in '96 and high school band trip to Orlando in '98

Georgia - laid over at Hartsfield en route to Brazil in '06

Illinois - laid over at Midway en route to NYC in '02

Kansas - spring break trip to Lawrence in '04

Kentucky - camped out at Mammoth Cave in '03 on the return trip from Pittsburgh

Louisiana - slept overnight in Baton Rouge en route to Florida in '96 and convention in N'Awlins in '02

Mississippi - spring break trip to the Delta in '03

Missouri - visited Kansas City as a side trip on our Kansas trip in '04

Nebraska - spring break trip to Omaha in '05. Side trip to the Strategic Air and Space Museum in Ashland (not sure if it's in the 1st or 2nd; I put the former since we drove out of Omaha to get to the museum). Haven't been anywhere in the 3rd.

New Jersey - hotel for band trip to NYC in '00; volunteered at Community Food Bank of New Jersey in Newark in '02

New Mexico - having lived in the other 3 border states, it's inevitable that I did a lot of driving here! Also spring break trip to Roswell in '02 and post-Christmas vacation to Carlsbad Caverns in '05

New York - high school band trip to the City in '00; came here again in '02 with some university buddies where we helped out at the food bank in N.J.

Ohio - drove through en route to Pennsylvania in '03 and '06, going through Cincy and Columbus. (On our first drive, my boyfriend and I saw a roof painted like the Confederate flag! We has just entered from Kentucky.)

Oklahoma - drove through en route to Kansas in '04 and Nebraska in '05

Pennsylvania - visited boyfriend's cousin and aunt in Pittsburgh in '03 and '06

Tennessee - drove through en route to Pittsburgh. Stayed overnight in Nashville in '03 and just outside Memphis in '06.

Texas - I live here. And am counting down the days until I get out!

West Virginia - drove through en route to Pittsburgh. In '03 we went through a tiny bit of the northern panhandle where the speed on the freeway was a ridiculously low 45 MPH! (At least it was in August '03.) In '06 we bisected the state from southwest to northeast.

Just for fun, I will include all the Congressional districts that I have seen, using the current district lines.

Airport only: FL-18, GA-04 and 05, IL-03 (those are my best guesses as to where Hartsfield and Midway are; Miami was easier to figure out)

Drove through: AL-01, AZ-02, AR-01, AR-02, AZ-04, AZ-05, AZ-06, AZ-07, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-33, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-39, CA-41, CA-49, CA-50, FL-01, KS-01, KS-02, KS-04, KY-01, KY-04, KY-05, KY-06, LA-01, LA-03, LA-04, LA-05, LA-07, MS-04, NJ-08, NJ-09, NJ-11, OH-01, OH-02, OH-03, OH-06, OH-07, OH-12, OH-15, OH-18, OK-03, OK-04, OK-05, PA-12, PA-18, TN-05, TN-06, TN-07, TN-08, TX-01, TX-02, TX-07, TX-08, TX-11, TX-15, TX-18, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, WV-01, WV-02, WV-03

Visited: AZ-01, AR-04, CA-30, CA-38, CA-40, CA-42, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48, CA-53, CO-01, CO-02, FL-02, FL-08, KS-03, KY-02, NM-02, LA-02, LA-06, MS-02, MO-05, NE-01, NE-02, NJ-05, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-02, NY-08, NY-12, NY-15, PA-04, PA-14, TN-05, TN-09, TX-03, TX-04, TX-05, TX-12, TX-13, TX-16, TX-17, TX-19, TX-20, TX-21, TX-23, TX-27, TX-30, TX-31

Lived in after moving: AZ-08, TX-06, TX-10, TX-24, TX-26, TX-32

Home district: CA-26


Version: 4

Based on the explanation in this thread.

What if the election were held and your favorite party was won by your 26 favorite states and your least favorite party was won by your 25 most disliked states. Make maps and show if you win or not.

Here's mine. I win, 297-241. And I think you can tell my most favorite state and my least favorite state! ;)


Version: 3

Obama/Henry vs. Huckabee/Giuliani


Version: 2

Ricahrdson/Vilsack (D) vs. McCain/F. Thompson (R)


Version: 1

Richardson/Vilsack (D) vs. Thompson/McCain (R)


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 13 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 26/37 60/74 81.1% pie 8 0 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 0 1T103
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 18 0 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 3 0 9T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 50 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 3 4 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 2 4 10T312
Aggregate Predictions 238/248 176/248 414/496 83.5% pie


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