Comments History
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hideVersion: 44
This will probably be my final prediction...
A convincing win to Obama/Biden after a very fractured almost amateurish run by McCain/Palin.
Change/Hope wins out over the baseless negativity & old school campaigning of the McCain camp.
America has moved on from the Bradley effect if ever there was one in the first place.
Obama will make a great President & will restore America's prestige at home & with the world.
Version: 43
Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, & Georgia would fall in a bigger landslide...
Version: 42
Although a swing is obviously on in states like West Virginia, & Montana, & it's big at that, probably won't be enough on the day to switch over, but it will be close.
Still think Obama is in for a pretty convincing win.
McCain has run a pretty terrible campaign, & everything seems to be going against him.
Version: 41
In the interests of good sportsmanship & the so called "closing" of the McCain gap I've decided to give back Montana to the Republicans.
Version: 40
If nothing changes this will be a blow out to Obama!
100,000 in St Louis for Obama = WOW!
I'm thinking this is going to be a blow out!
Obama has out campaigned McCain, out performed him, & out spent him.
Barring the unimaginable ...
It's OVER.
Version: 39
Indiana may just go McCain.
But look for a possible upset in Nebraska 2.
Version: 38
Well the John McCain is fast approaching terminal velocity.
I'm now thinking if this continues the way it's going & I can't see it stopping anytime just yet, West Virginia may flip Dem now, & Arkansas will come close.
Who would have thought!
It looked like this earlier on in the campaign that it would be a blow out, & then things got close, I'm glad it's gone back the other way as America needs change so desperately.
Version: 37
Anyone who seriously thinks McCain has this in the bag is fooling themselves.
I would be very surprised to see the momentum that Obama has had going for most of this campaign turn around in the last few weeks.
Having said that you did vote for Bush twice, even after the Iraq war was proven to be folly, so anything can happen I guess.
But I'm feeling good for Obama, & the Democrats as a whole.
There's going to be a serious backlash against the Republican party in this election, which I believe has failed America so badly under this current administration.
The desire for change, coupled with a massive turn out should be unbeatable for Obama & the Democrats.
Of all the states looking to go across to Obama I would say Colorado is proving the least reliable at the moment.
I find that funny as most predictions on this site have Obama winning it, yet give Virginia to McCain, in the end I believe Obama will win Virginia more strongly than Colorado.
Version: 36
Loving the latest polls with the trend continuing in Obama's favour.
Just hope it continues through until November 4, & am increasing confident it will barring any October surprises in McCain's favour.
Nice to see Pennsylvania, & Michigan, Wisconsin, & Minnesota moving further away from the Republicans reach.
One would have to start feeling pretty worried on the Republican side considering it's only 4 weeks away now to the big day, & you have failed to move as yet any Democratic states onto your side!
Version: 35
You would think things are starting to look a bit ominous for the McCain campaign.
With swings towards Obama in 41 out of the 50 states & DC, & currently up by 8 points on Gallup tracking, & a victory in the debate.
McCain's addled suspension of his campaign to then not show the lead in the bail out plan, & Palin increasingly showing her inadequacies are leaving the campaign listless to say the least.
This is where I honestly see it at the moment.
But note Obama is still shy of the 270 in the confidence area at the moment, however in the coming week I would see New Hampshire, Colorado, & possibly even Virginia changing from toss up to leaning Obama.
I expect Biden to hit Palin out of the grand stand as long as he stays humble, & focused, & does not appear arrogant.
Version: 34
Feeling now good about Virginia & in particular Missouri for some reason.
Think McCain may have hit his high tide mark & Obama may open the field a bit.
Version: 33
A reflection of the closeness of the race, & a conservative win for Obama.
Version: 32
A funny result when you consider Missouri & Ohio both loose there bellwether status.
I nominate the battleground states as
on the GOP side - Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, & Virginia
on the Dem side - Michigan, Pennsylvania, & New Hampshire.
I note with interest West Virginia's slide in the polls for the GOP, & expect with a bit of campaigning by Obama for Arkansas to follow suit.
2 ex Dem states that could be won with some elbow grease.
Version: 31
Think we may have seen the high water mark for McCain in this campaign after the bounce from the Convention & Palin's novelty wears off with the realisation of the GOP's mess with the economy & the fact that 26 years of McCain has not brough change in Washington.
Version: 30
As usual Conservative Republican leaning America comes to grips with voting for a Democrat.
Version: 29
the plot thickens...
for now
Version: 28
Well it appears things are a lot closer, & that contrary to my opinions the Republicans had a successful pick in Palin, & a successful convention.
I still think this election is Obama's to loose with an unpopular Republican administration that has spent half a trillion in Iraq, when the real war was in Afghanistan, resulting in over 4,000 young Americans lives snuffed out.
An economy on the brink of recession, & a 26 year 72 year old Senator now promising change.
Will the Americans be that gullible?
Version: 27
Frankly I think America's had enough of the Republican party at the moment.
McCain & that shrill negative one from the North are showing that they are just more of the same, no plans, just negativity & sarcasm.
It's time for change, it's time for hope again.
GOBAMA!
Version: 26
2 months to go & it's unravelling for the Republicans.
McCain's woeful choice in a complete inexperienced unknown has seriously questioned his judgement amongst voters.
Obama's superior performance at the Democratic National Convention captivating 38 million viewers, stopping people in Times Square & around the country is an ominous omen for the Republican party.
Version: 25
Back to reality.
This is where it's at for the moment.
Version: 24
Alaska goes back with the choice of Palin as VP.
& that's about all she will do for the Republicans.
3 electoral votes!
Nice work.
Although I was looking forward to Alaska going Democrat!
Version: 23
Based on Obama's Acceptance of the Nomination & the Democratic Convention this is what I believe could happen if the cards fall the right way.
Version: 22
This election is definitely tightening at the moment.
Biden was a bad boring choice for VP.
Don't think this will do much for Obama at all, apart from shoring up Delaware with oh my gosh all of it's 3 electoral votes - AWESOME!
Should have been Hillary!
Although she can do better & probably will, especially if Obama loses this election, as she will automatically line up as the first one off the block next time around for the Dems.
Anyway hopefully the Democratic Convention will go well, & Obama will get a boost, as he's only going backwards in the polls at the moment, which is somewhat surprising.
Version: 21
North to Alaska!
McCain holds in latest average by 1 point with Obama ahead 5 points in latest poll!
Interesting...
Massive swing here on last election!
Version: 20
The Obama Juggernaut Continues winning 2 congressional districts in Nebraska.
Colorado switches back, as does Indiana.
Version: 19
Perhaps a tightening...
With the continued arrogance of some in the Obama camp, & a backlash after Hillary gets snubbed for the VP position from her 18 million + voter base.
Version: 18
Actually think Obama should win New Mexico as it was so line ball last time, & I don't think the neighbourly status of McCain will save him here, maybe in Nevada, & Colorado but not enough in New Mexico.
I've given Indiana back to the Reps, I think Obama will make real inroads here in the vote, but may just fall short, after all it has been Republican since '64.
However I think he has a better shot in Virginia where he should just fall over.
Version: 17
Back to reality perhaps.
I think Obama's failure to capture the Hispanics so far may see neigbouring McCain hang onto Colorado, New Mexico, & Nevada by slim margins.
Version: 16
The World LOVES Obama!
& America does too!
Version: 15
Back to reality from my last out there prediction.
This is where I see it at the moment & quite probable in November.
I do believe Obama can pull off shock wins in North Dakota, Indiana, & Virginia.
I don't believe that this will be entirely a vote for Obama, but against the Republican monolith that has careered from one disaster to the next.
Obama is very right in stating that the war on terror was always in Afghanistan & the resources need to be placed there rather than a futile war in Iraq.
Version: 14
This is my worst case scenario for McCain at the moment.
Version: 13
This is where I honestly think it's at.
Version: 12
Strongly support Obama over another Republican.
Version: 11
Still reasonably close in some ways but Obama definitely with the edge.
Version: 10
Could this be the year of the Democratic landslide?
Version: 9
Nothing much changes, McCain's got an uphill battle with a weak campaign/machine against the Obama juggernaut & the movement for change, tied with the Republican induced recession & the wrong turn war in Iraq.
Version: 8
Not sure if Obama can win NC but maybe now in Florida.
Still think although McCain will win Arizona it will be by less than 10 points in his home state.
Think he'll carry Nevada but not New Mexico amongst his neighbours.
Version: 7
Starting to feel more confident on Obama.
Early days but think it could end up being this positive.
Version: 6
Feeling more confident that Virginia may just fall to Obama this time around.
Who would have thought.
Version: 5
Where I think it's at at the moment with the Obama presumptive nomination.
I think he will struggle in Ohio, & definitely won't win Floriday, at this stage anyway.
Version: 4
This is Obama vs McCain in my opinion at the moment.
I think Hillary would do much better in the general election -
winning back on this analysis:
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
West Virginia
Missouri
& naturally Arkansas!
She would also make things much closer in:
Nevada
Montana (a combination of Hillary supporters & some Republicans defecting, but not yet ready to vote for the most LIberal Senator in the Senate).
New Mexico (although perhaps McCain's neighbour status may win the day here)
Kentucky
Tennessee
Fingers crossed she'll make it through on the steep path she has to climb now to win the nomination!
Version: 3
This is where I think it's at at the moment with McCain now the Republican nominee & still no decided winner on the Democratic side.
Version: 2
Maybe a stretch at this stage for the Dems to win NC, TN, & AZ, so have put them back in the Republican camp.
Really anyone's guess until we know the nominees & see the way the campaign is heading.
My prediction is it will be McCain versus Clinton with Clinton to win!
Version: 1
Very Early Days but the Republicans are heading for defeat unless they elect 1. Giuliani or 2. McCain.
Only these 2 candidates can give it a shot, & are by no means certain of victory.
Huckabee will be one of the biggest Republicans losers ever, followed closely by Romney, both of whom will loose to either Clinton or Obama, or just about anyone else on the Democratic side.
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