Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:15

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	353
Rep	185
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	142
Ind	0
Tos	85

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+101	0	0	0	20	2	252	+101
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-101	23	3	185	-101
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
94	50	37	4	3

Analysis

Final Prediction

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 14

Some slight movement - Nevada and Ohio are now both more likely to go to Obama - Missouri flips to McCain. Georgia is in play and Arizona, Montana and North Dakota will be in play on a good night for Obama. Some late movement in Pennsylvania is not enough and this state will still go for Obama by a fairly wide margin.

Version: 13

Confidence adjustments with a week to go

Version: 12

10 days to go - things do not look good for McCain

Version: 9

Updating confidence on some of the picks

Version: 8

A few minor adjustments

Version: 7

Nebraska 2nd CD is in play

Version: 6

Taking into account the recent swing towards Obama - one month to go

Version: 4

I waited until after McCain's bounce started to dissipate and the public had a better idea who Sarah Palin was. Barring any major new events (which I'm sure there will be at least one), I think this is probably what we're going to see on election night. - Updated because I accidentally had MO going to Obama

Version: 3

I don't this is going to be as close as the news media makes it out to be based on most of the polls I've seen. Nevertheless, it is far too early to really truly be able to judge for sure. I'm moving New Mexico into the leans column since polls have consistently shown Obama to have a legitimate lead there. Recent polls in Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota have prompted me to move them into the lean category for McCain - they could become battlegrounds quickly.

Version: 1

This is just a rough preliminary prediction based on where the polls are today at the start of the race (Obama vs. McCain). I expect this to change

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberallover (-NY) 2008-11-06 @ 23:51:26
You rock! Who would've thought North Carolina and Virginia and Florida but not Missouri, the supposed consummate bellwether? Well, you were almost right. You missed Indy and may have missed Omaha, too. ;) Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 23:52:13

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 00:30:41
Awww, no faith in the Indiana Campaign for Change? Too bad! The rest of your map is excellent. I feared Obama would loose here, but couldn't imagine what a schmuck I would feel like if I predicted it for McCain and Obama won it. Where in IN are you?

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	21/56	72/112	64.3%	2	1	527	T	678
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	4	2	115	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	16/33	48/66	72.7%	3	2	144	T	343
2008 President	54/56	40/56	94/112	83.9%	15	0	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	2	0	96	T	407
2004 President	52/56	40/56	92/112	82.1%	9	1	126	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	277/290	180/290	457/580	78.8%

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