Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:16
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Version: 15 DISCLAIMER: I'm not confidant about my predictions of: Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina. Version: 13 Aaaand it's going to be a landslide. Not much to talk about. Version: 12 Obama leading McCain in WVA and ND?! If McCain can't win WVA against Barack Obama who got a quarter of the DEMOCRATIC vote during the primary, he really shouldn't be spending millions of dollars competing in Minesota and Pennsylvania. Interestingly, while Florida and Pennsylvania have clearly started to show sustained Obama leads in their polls, on Obama victory in Ohio is just marginally better than a 50-50 chance at this point, and polls there indicate a complete tossup race. With the polls showing a tossup, I think Obama would still be more likely to win than McCain because his ground organization is much better. Version: 11 Maybe a good Palin performance in the debate will erode Obama's lead... Version: 10 The political climate has shifted with the economic meltdown and this feels more like 2006 than 2004. Version: 9 Overwhelmingly dislike of George W. Bush doesn't stop John McCain from winning a SHOCKING victory in the popular vote with a near miss in the electoral college. Palin has clearly helped McCain in a big way in states with large number of evangelicals. The national climate couldn't be more different, but this is starting to feel eerily like September 2004 again. Version: 8 Only time will tell if Sarah Palin was the right pick for John McCain. Version: 7 I thought John McCain was going to run a serious campaign! Now states like Alaska-where Al Gore won a quarter of the vote-and the Dakotas have unexpectedly turned into tossups. Obama's even leading in Florida which is chalk full of hawkish Cubans and elderly voters who voted against Obama during the primary. Worse for McCain is that Democrats are leading by wide (10 or more point) margins in states that were competitive in 2004 like Wisconsin and Minnesota. The only two states that voted for Kerry that McCain might carry are Michigan and New Hampshire. However, a surge in black voter turnout in Michigan could damage his chances there on election day and Jeanne Shaheen's (D) impending victory of Senator John Sununu (R) in New Hampshire complicates McCain's chances there, though it's more likely that McCain will carry New Hampshire than Michigan. Version: 6 As expected, a blowout McCain victory across the Ohio River Valley and Great Plains. Obama is positioned to do well in the postindustrial states on both coasts as well as in southern states with large African American populations. The Rust Belt and Southwestern states will be the two regional battlegrounds come November. Version: 5 Assuming that Obama is the nominee, Democrats can kiss goodbye to the Ohio River Valley states but have a stronger chance in the West and upper Midwest. A large turnout of African American voters on election day could make the Carolinas competitive, as polls indicate they are. Version: 4 Polls show Oregon as hosting a very close race, with high unfavorability ratings for Hillary Clinton. Polls also show her trailing Republican candidates in Colorado. However Democrats stand to gain from virulent antiwar sentiments across the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and the Midwest, and should be able to hold on to several states because of it. That's why it appears very likely at this time the Republicans will not be able to carry Washington, Oregon, or Maine. Version: 3 West Virginia to Tossup after lastest batch of polls shows Hillary Clinton beating any and all announced Republican candidates. Virginia to Tossup as Mark Warner will now be on the ballot for Senator in 2008. Kentucky to Leaning as Mitch McConnell's approval rating is now down to net +3 (47-44) and he will be on the ballot in 2008. Missouri to Tossup as unpopular governor Matt Blunt is up for reelection in 2008 along with the presidential election. Support for Democrats outside Chicago is weak across the Midwest and Upper South due to their cultural conservativeness, something which will be accentuated in 08 if Clinton is the Democrats' nominee. Their position could be strangthened by emphasizing economic populism-but it would be damaged out west.
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