PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - eridniel (--MD) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:16

Prediction Map
eridniel MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
eridniel MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem338
 
Rep131
 
Ind0
 
Tos69
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
99494442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 15

DISCLAIMER: I'm not confidant about my predictions of: Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina.


Version: 13

Aaaand it's going to be a landslide. Not much to talk about.


Version: 12

Obama leading McCain in WVA and ND?! If McCain can't win WVA against Barack Obama who got a quarter of the DEMOCRATIC vote during the primary, he really shouldn't be spending millions of dollars competing in Minesota and Pennsylvania. Interestingly, while Florida and Pennsylvania have clearly started to show sustained Obama leads in their polls, on Obama victory in Ohio is just marginally better than a 50-50 chance at this point, and polls there indicate a complete tossup race. With the polls showing a tossup, I think Obama would still be more likely to win than McCain because his ground organization is much better.


Version: 11

Maybe a good Palin performance in the debate will erode Obama's lead...


Version: 10

The political climate has shifted with the economic meltdown and this feels more like 2006 than 2004.


Version: 9

Overwhelmingly dislike of George W. Bush doesn't stop John McCain from winning a SHOCKING victory in the popular vote with a near miss in the electoral college. Palin has clearly helped McCain in a big way in states with large number of evangelicals. The national climate couldn't be more different, but this is starting to feel eerily like September 2004 again.


Version: 8

Only time will tell if Sarah Palin was the right pick for John McCain.


Version: 7

I thought John McCain was going to run a serious campaign! Now states like Alaska-where Al Gore won a quarter of the vote-and the Dakotas have unexpectedly turned into tossups. Obama's even leading in Florida which is chalk full of hawkish Cubans and elderly voters who voted against Obama during the primary. Worse for McCain is that Democrats are leading by wide (10 or more point) margins in states that were competitive in 2004 like Wisconsin and Minnesota. The only two states that voted for Kerry that McCain might carry are Michigan and New Hampshire. However, a surge in black voter turnout in Michigan could damage his chances there on election day and Jeanne Shaheen's (D) impending victory of Senator John Sununu (R) in New Hampshire complicates McCain's chances there, though it's more likely that McCain will carry New Hampshire than Michigan.

The one bright spot for the Republicans is that they don't need to pick up any blue states to win. They are running competitively in Ohio, Florida, and Michigan and a win in New Hampshire could offset expected losses in the West.

All in all, a dreadful landscape for the Republicans, especially given that they have had since late February to come up with a good message and think of ways to tear down Barack Obama, while Obama is very liberal and came out of his own primary in June with a divided party and trailing Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. Not to mention the baggage from Reverend Wright.


Version: 6

As expected, a blowout McCain victory across the Ohio River Valley and Great Plains. Obama is positioned to do well in the postindustrial states on both coasts as well as in southern states with large African American populations. The Rust Belt and Southwestern states will be the two regional battlegrounds come November.


Version: 5

Assuming that Obama is the nominee, Democrats can kiss goodbye to the Ohio River Valley states but have a stronger chance in the West and upper Midwest. A large turnout of African American voters on election day could make the Carolinas competitive, as polls indicate they are.


Version: 4

Polls show Oregon as hosting a very close race, with high unfavorability ratings for Hillary Clinton. Polls also show her trailing Republican candidates in Colorado. However Democrats stand to gain from virulent antiwar sentiments across the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and the Midwest, and should be able to hold on to several states because of it. That's why it appears very likely at this time the Republicans will not be able to carry Washington, Oregon, or Maine.

In the east, however, the Democrats appear well positioned. They have large leads in Arkansas and small ones in Virginia and Florida. Republicans cling to a small lead in Missouri, while New Jersey appears to be leaning Democrat. Strong anti-illegal immigration sentiments across the Midwest and Southwest may benefit Republicans.


Version: 3

West Virginia to Tossup after lastest batch of polls shows Hillary Clinton beating any and all announced Republican candidates. Virginia to Tossup as Mark Warner will now be on the ballot for Senator in 2008. Kentucky to Leaning as Mitch McConnell's approval rating is now down to net +3 (47-44) and he will be on the ballot in 2008. Missouri to Tossup as unpopular governor Matt Blunt is up for reelection in 2008 along with the presidential election. Support for Democrats outside Chicago is weak across the Midwest and Upper South due to their cultural conservativeness, something which will be accentuated in 08 if Clinton is the Democrats' nominee. Their position could be strangthened by emphasizing economic populism-but it would be damaged out west.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 5 434T684
P 2014 Senate 33/36 25/36 58/72 80.6% pie 3 2 60T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 3 2 97T300
P 2012 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 2 3 111T343
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 5 1 34T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 2 1 29T312
P 2008 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 16 0 26T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 6 4 9T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 2 6 113T465
P 2004 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 12 16 706T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 387/413 272/413 659/826 79.8% pie


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