Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:18

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	278
Rep	260
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	239
Rep	189
Ind	0
Tos	110

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+4	0	+26	0	0	0	20	2	252	+26
Rep	0	0	0	-4	0	-26	27	3	260	-26
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
88	46	35	4	3

Analysis

I'm more optimistic for McCain then most people are. A loss is a loss, though. God help us if Obama wins...

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 15

McCain/Obama

Version: 14

McCain/Obama

Version: 13

McCain / Obama

Version: 12

McCain / Obama

Version: 11

McCain/Obama

Version: 10

McCain/Obama

Version: 9

McCain / Obama

Version: 8

This assumes a McCain/Obama match up.

Didn't change anything except percentages and lean/tossups.

McCain should be able to flip New Hampshire, despite the fact that it's been trending Democratic. After all, he wouldn't be the Republican nominee if it weren't for New Hampshire, and the polls showed him ahead there even back when the National polls had him behind. The same goes for Pennsylvania and Michigan. If the nominee ends up being Clinton (unlikely, but plausible), Ohio would probably flip, but not with Obama. Virginia has been trending Democratic lately, not to mention the large black population. Obama gets stomped in Arkansas; thinking otherwise is folly. Clinton, yes, Obama, no. Florida has trended to the GOP since '00; I'd be surprised if Obama won there, although Hillary would put it back into the tossup column. Iowa seems like it will almost certainly bolt for Obama, though perhaps not for Clinton. Missouri seems to be in good shape for McCain right now. Minnesota is McCain and Wisconsin is Obama because a coin flip said so. New Mexico and Nevada go for Obama, but not Clinton. Colorado could flip for Obama, but I'll wait and see for now. I threw Oregon in there because I felt like it, and it seems possible it might flip.

Version: 3

This is probably a little bit of wishful thinking, but...what the heck, why not?

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	1	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	2	1	45	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	3	7	56	T	103
2008 President	50/56	38/56	88/112	78.6%	18	0	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	27/33	12/33	39/66	59.1%	3	235	358	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	3	54	183	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	40/52	21/52	61/104	58.7%	16	-	38	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	36/49	14/49	50/98	51.0%	13	-	52	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	231/277	141/277	372/554	67.1%

Links

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