PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - nyquil_man (D-AR) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
nyquil_man MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nyquil_man MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep160
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
96494043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is my final forecast. Barring a major upset, Senator Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States and Senator Joseph Biden will be elected the 47th Vice President of the United States.

Popular vote forecast:

Senator Barack Obama/Senator Joseph Biden (D): 52.2%
Senator John McCain/Governor Sarah Palin (R): 45.5%
Other: 2.3%

State-by-state forecasts, as of 11/4:

Alabama
McCain 59.6
Obama 38.6
Other 1.8
Spread 21.1

Alaska
McCain 56.4
Obama 40.4
Other 3.1
Spread 16.0

Arizona
McCain 50.9
Obama 47.0
Other 2.1
Spread 3.8

Arkansas
McCain 53.7
Obama 44.5
Other 1.8
Spread 9.2

California
Obama 59.8
McCain 37.4
Other 2.9
Spread 22.4

Colorado
Obama 51.9
McCain 45.4
Other 2.7
Spread 6.4

Connecticut
Obama 59.0
McCain 38.4
Other 2.6
Spread 20.6

Delaware
Obama 59.6
McCain 38.1
Other 2.3
Spread 21.6

D. C.
Obama 89.1
McCain 8.8
Other 2.0
Spread 80.3

Florida
Obama 50.3
McCain 48.0
Other 1.8
Spread 2.3

Georgia
McCain 50.9
Obama 47.1
Other 2.1
Spread 3.8

Hawaii
Obama 64.3
McCain 32.8
Other 2.9
Spread 31.5

Idaho
McCain 61.3
Obama 35.6
Other 3.1
Spread 25.8

Illinois
Obama 60.5
McCain 37.5
Other 2.0
Spread 22.9

Indiana
McCain 50.2
Obama 47.8
Other 2.0
Spread 2.4

Iowa
Obama 55.1
McCain 42.7
Other 2.1
Spread 12.4

Kansas
McCain 56.1
Obama 41.1
Other 2.8
Spread 15.0

Kentucky
McCain 54.9
Obama 42.7
Other 2.3
Spread 12.2

Louisiana
McCain 53.7
Obama 44.6
Other 1.8
Spread 9.1

Maine
Obama 56.1
McCain 40.4
Other 3.5
Spread 15.7

Maryland
Obama 59.2
McCain 39.0
Other 1.8
Spread 20.2

Massachusetts
Obama 60.3
McCain 35.9
Other 3.7
Spread 24.4

Michigan
Obama 55.2
McCain 43.0
Other 1.8
Spread 12.2

Minnesota
Obama 54.7
McCain 42.0
Other 3.3
Spread 12.7

Mississippi
McCain 54.4
Obama 43.7
Other 1.9
Spread 10.7

Missouri
Obama 49.1
McCain 48.7
Other 2.2
Spread 0.4

Montana
McCain 50.3
Obama 46.5
Other 3.2
Spread 3.7

Nebraska
McCain 58.9
Obama 38.2
Other 2.9
Spread 20.7

Nevada
Obama 51.3
McCain 45.5
Other 3.2
Spread 5.8

New Hampshire
Obama 54.0
McCain 44.1
Other 1.9
Spread 9.9

New Jersey
Obama 56.8
McCain 41.0
Other 2.2
Spread 15.8

New Mexico
Obama 54.6
McCain 43.1
Other 2.3
Spread 11.5

New York
Obama 63.3
McCain 34.1
Other 2.6
Spread 29.2

North Carolina
Obama 49.2
McCain 49.1
Other 1.6
Spread 0.1

North Dakota
McCain 51.0
Obama 45.7
Other 3.3
Spread 5.4

Ohio
Obama 50.4
McCain 47.3
Other 2.3
Spread 3.1

Oklahoma
McCain 62.5
Obama 37.5
Other -
Spread 25.1

Oregon
Obama 55.9
McCain 40.6
Other 3.4
Spread 15.3

Pennsylvania
Obama 53.1
McCain 45.1
Other 1.9
Spread 8.0

Rhode Island
Obama 59.0
McCain 37.1
Other 3.9
Spread 22.0

South Carolina
McCain 54.6
Obama 43.6
Other 1.8
Spread 10.9

South Dakota
McCain 53.3
Obama 44.4
Other 2.3
Spread 8.8

Tennessee
McCain 55.3
Obama 43.1
Other 1.6
Spread 12.3

Texas
McCain 54.6
Obama 43.6
Other 1.8
Spread 11.0

Utah
McCain 60.9
Obama 35.6
Other 3.4
Spread 25.3

Vermont
Obama 60.3
McCain 36.0
Other 3.7
Spread 24.2

Virginia
Obama 51.2
McCain 47.0
Other 1.8
Spread 4.2

Washington
Obama 56.8
McCain 40.3
Other 2.9
Spread 16.5

West Virginia
McCain 52.2
Obama 45.5
Other 2.3
Spread 6.7

Wisconsin
Obama 54.5
McCain 42.6
Other 2.9
Spread 11.9

Wyoming
McCain 60.3
Obama 36.6
Other 3.1
Spread 23.8

As complete vote returns come in, I will check them against my forecast to see how close (or far) I was from the actual outcome.

My major concerns are MO and NC, which are both razor-thin margins and may well flip. A further concern is the third-party estimate, which is based on a combination of state/national polling and historical data and may be overly optimistic.

Anyway... we'll see.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 24

National:

Barack Obama - 52.2%
John McCain - 45.5%

State-by-State (as of 10-31):

Alabama
McCain 59.5
Obama 38.6

Alaska
McCain 56.2
Obama 40.0

Arizona
McCain 51.2
Obama 46.5

Arkansas
McCain 54.4
Obama 43.5

California
Obama 58.6
McCain 38.4

Colorado
Obama 51.6
McCain 45.5

Connecticut
Obama 58.4
McCain 38.8

Delaware
Obama 58.6
McCain 39.0

D. C.
Obama 88.1
McCain 9.8

Florida
Obama 51.0
McCain 47.0

Georgia
McCain 51.2
Obama 46.6

Hawaii
Obama 63.9
McCain 33.1

Idaho
McCain 61.5
Obama 35.2

Illinois
Obama 60.7
McCain 37.3

Indiana
McCain 50.3
Obama 47.2

Iowa
Obama 54.5
McCain 43.2

Kansas
McCain 54.7
Obama 42.6

Kentucky
McCain 55.0
Obama 42.8

Louisiana
McCain 54.4
Obama 43.8

Maine
Obama 55.6
McCain 40.8
ME-1
Obama 57.5
McCain 39.4
ME-2
Obama 53.6
McCain 42.5


Maryland
Obama 58.9
McCain 39.2

Massachusetts
Obama 60.2
McCain 35.9

Michigan
Obama 56.7
McCain 41.8

Minnesota
Obama 55.6
McCain 41.6

Mississippi
McCain 54.2
Obama 44.1

Missouri
Obama 49.3
McCain 48.0

Montana
McCain 50.8
Obama 45.2

Nebraska
McCain 59.1
Obama 37.8
NE-1
McCain 55.8
Obama 41.4
NE-2
McCain 55.5
Obama 40.7
NE-3
McCain 66.2
Obama 31.2


Nevada
Obama 50.9
McCain 45.8

New Hampshire
Obama 54.3
McCain 43.4

New Jersey
Obama 57.4
McCain 40.4

New Mexico
Obama 53.2
McCain 44.8

New York
Obama 63.1
McCain 34.2

North Carolina
Obama 49.6
McCain 49.0

North Dakota
McCain 50.5
Obama 45.9

Ohio
Obama 51.4
McCain 46.2

Oklahoma
McCain 63.0
Obama 37.0

Oregon
Obama 54.9
McCain 41.7

Pennsylvania
Obama 54.4
McCain 44.0

Rhode Island
Obama 58.6
McCain 37.3

South Carolina
McCain 55.0
Obama 43.2

South Dakota
McCain 53.1
Obama 44.3

Tennessee
McCain 55.6
Obama 42.7

Texas
McCain 55.6
Obama 42.7

Utah
McCain 63.1
Obama 33.3

Vermont
Obama 60.1
McCain 36.0

Virginia
Obama 51.4
McCain 46.4

Washington
Obama 55.8
McCain 40.9

West Virginia
McCain 51.7
Obama 45.4

Wisconsin
Obama 54.1
McCain 43.3

Wyoming
McCain 60.2
Obama 36.3


Version: 23

Barack Obama (D): 51.9
John McCain (R): 45.4

State-by-state estimates, as of 10-26:

Alabama
McCain 58.6
Obama 38.9

Alaska
McCain 55.9
Obama 39.9

Arizona
McCain 52.5
Obama 44.7

Arkansas
McCain 53.1
Obama 44.5

California
Obama 58.1
McCain 38.7

Colorado
Obama 51.2
McCain 45.9

Connecticut
Obama 57.4
McCain 40.0

Delaware
Obama 56.5
McCain 40.5

D. C.
Obama 87.8
McCain 10.8

Florida
Obama 50.2
McCain 47.9

Georgia
McCain 51.3
Obama 46.2

Hawaii
Obama 63.5
McCain 33.4

Idaho
McCain 62.9
Obama 32.6

Illinois
Obama 60.6
McCain 37.0

Indiana
McCain 49.4
Obama 47.4

Iowa
Obama 54.9
McCain 42.4

Kansas
McCain 54.6
Obama 42.4

Kentucky
McCain 54.8
Obama 42.7

Louisiana
McCain 55.4
Obama 42.6

Maine
Obama 55.1
McCain 40.7
ME-1
Obama 56.9
McCain 39.2
ME-2
Obama 53.1
McCain 42.3


Maryland
Obama 59.3
McCain 39.0

Massachusetts
Obama 60.7
McCain 34.7

Michigan
Obama 56.6
McCain 41.2

Minnesota
Obama 54.0
McCain 42.3

Mississippi
McCain 53.6
Obama 43.9

Missouri
Obama 50.2
McCain 47.4

Montana
McCain 50.4
Obama 45.0

Nebraska
McCain 58.7
Obama 37.9
NE-1
McCain 55.3
Obama 41.5
NE-2
McCain 55.2
Obama 40.8
NE-3
McCain 65.8
Obama 31.3


Nevada
Obama 50.1
McCain 47.0

New Hampshire
Obama 52.7
McCain 44.0

New Jersey
Obama 57.2
McCain 40.3

New Mexico
Obama 52.8
McCain 44.7

New York
Obama 63.3
McCain 33.5

North Carolina
Obama 49.9
McCain 48.2

North Dakota
McCain 49.6
Obama 46.6

Ohio
Obama 51.9
McCain 45.2

Oklahoma
McCain 63.1
Obama 36.9

Oregon
Obama 54.6
McCain 41.5

Pennsylvania
Obama 53.8
McCain 43.7

Rhode Island
Obama 58.3
McCain 36.8

South Carolina
McCain 55.7
Obama 42.3

South Dakota
McCain 52.7
Obama 44.3

Tennessee
McCain 55.3
Obama 42.7

Texas
McCain 55.5
Obama 42.5

Utah
McCain 65.0
Obama 31.2

Vermont
Obama 61.4
McCain 34.8

Virginia
Obama 51.7
McCain 46.0

Washington
Obama 55.2
McCain 41.4

West Virginia
McCain 50.7
Obama 46.4

Wisconsin
Obama 53.6
McCain 43.1

Wyoming
McCain 59.9
Obama 36.3


Version: 22

National
Obama 51.4
McCain 45.8

State-by-state estimates as of 10-19:

Alabama
McCain 57.8
Obama 40.1

Alaska
McCain 56.2
Obama 38.5

Arizona
McCain 54.7
Obama 42.4

Arkansas
McCain 52.9
Obama 44.4

California
Obama 57.2
McCain 39.6

Colorado
Obama 51.8
McCain 45.2

Connecticut
Obama 57.2
McCain 39.5

Delaware
Obama 57.2
McCain 39.7

D. C.
Obama 88.6
McCain 9.4

Florida
Obama 50.4
McCain 47.2

Georgia
McCain 52.3
Obama 45.5

Hawaii
Obama 62.9
McCain 33.7

Idaho
McCain 60.3
Obama 35.6

Illinois
Obama 58.0
McCain 39.6

Indiana
McCain 50.3
Obama 46.4

Iowa
Obama 53.9
McCain 43.3

Kansas
McCain 54.7
Obama 42.6

Kentucky
McCain 54.2
Obama 43.5

Louisiana
McCain 52.3
Obama 45.6

Maine
Obama 54.4
McCain 41.0
ME-1
Obama 56.2
McCain 39.6
ME-2
Obama 52.5
McCain 42.4

Maryland
Obama 58.6
McCain 39.4

Massachusetts
Obama 61.1
McCain 35.3

Michigan
Obama 54.8
McCain 42.8

Minnesota
Obama 53.1
McCain 43.2

Mississippi
McCain 54.0
Obama 44.0

Missouri
Obama 50.2
McCain 46.9

Montana
McCain 52.3
Obama 43.2

Nebraska
McCain 58.2
Obama 38.5
NE-1
McCain 54.7
Obama 41.1
NE-2
McCain 54.6
Obama 42.0
NE-3
McCain 65.9
Obama 31.3

Nevada
Obama 50.0
McCain 46.7

New Hampshire
Obama 52.5
McCain 44.1

New Jersey
Obama 54.6
McCain 42.5

New Mexico
Obama 52.7
McCain 44.6

New York
Obama 60.6
McCain 36.4

North Carolina
Obama 49.9
McCain 48.4

North Dakota
McCain 50.2
Obama 45.9

Ohio
Obama 49.5
McCain 47.5

Oklahoma
McCain 62.6
Obama 37.4

Oregon
Obama 54.2
McCain 41.7

Pennsylvania
Obama 55.2
McCain 41.9

Rhode Island
Obama 60.1
McCain 35.4

South Carolina
McCain 54.9
Obama 43.2

South Dakota
McCain 54.2
Obama 43.3

Tennessee
McCain 54.8
Obama 43.7

Texas
McCain 55.0
Obama 42.7

Utah
McCain 63.0
Obama 33.2

Vermont
Obama 59.1
McCain 36.6

Virginia
Obama 51.9
McCain 45.9

Washington
Obama 54.7
McCain 41.7

West Virginia
McCain 49.6
Obama 47.5

Wisconsin
Obama 53.4
McCain 43.0

Wyoming
McCain 59.9
Obama 36.2


Version: 21

Barack Obama (D): 51.6%
John McCain (R): 46.0%

State-by-state estimates, as of 10/13:

Alabama
McCain 20.2

Alaska
McCain 16.7

Arizona
McCain 9.0

Arkansas
McCain 5.6

California
Obama 15.6

Colorado
Obama 3.4

Connecticut
Obama 19.2

Delaware
Obama 18.1

D. C.
Obama 82.8

Florida
Obama 5.8

Georgia
McCain 6.3

Hawaii
Obama 24.0

Idaho
McCain 23.7

Illinois
Obama 16.7

Indiana
McCain 4.3

Iowa
Obama 12.5

Kansas
McCain 11.5

Kentucky
McCain 10.0

Louisiana
McCain 7.2

Maine
Obama 10.8
ME-1
Obama 13.0
ME-2
Obama 8.4

Maryland
Obama 21.1

Massachusetts
Obama 27.6

Michigan
Obama 9.8

Minnesota
Obama 11.2

Mississippi
McCain 10.7

Missouri
Obama 1.8

Montana
McCain 8.4

Nebraska
McCain 19.6
NE-1
McCain 13.4
NE-2
McCain 12.5
NE-3
McCain 34.5

Nevada
Obama 4.4

New Hampshire
Obama 8.8

New Jersey
Obama 12.4

New Mexico
Obama 7.4

New York
Obama 26.4

North Carolina
Obama 0.2

North Dakota
McCain 7.7

Ohio
Obama 4.1

Oklahoma
McCain 26.3

Oregon
Obama 11.8

Pennsylvania
Obama 12.3

Rhode Island
Obama 25.0

South Carolina
McCain 10.5

South Dakota
McCain 10.2

Tennessee
McCain 8.2

Texas
McCain 12.5

Utah
McCain 28.0

Vermont
Obama 24.3

Virginia
Obama 4.5

Washington
Obama 12.4

West Virginia
Obama 0.2

Wisconsin
Obama 8.9

Wyoming
McCain 24.6


Version: 20

National:
Obama - 50.7%
McCain - 47.0%
Other - 2.3%

State-by-state estimates, as of 10-05:

Alabama
McCain 21.4

Alaska
McCain 16.9

Arizona
McCain 9.0

Arkansas
McCain 8.3

California
Obama 14.4

Colorado
Obama 2.9

Connecticut
Obama 16.6

Delaware
Obama 19.0

D. C.
Obama 76.7

Florida
Obama 4.3

Georgia
McCain 7.0

Hawaii
Obama 30.2

Idaho
McCain 30.6

Illinois
Obama 18.0

Indiana
McCain 3.1

Iowa
Obama 11.8

Kansas
McCain 14.7

Kentucky
McCain 11.6

Louisiana
McCain 12.1

Maine
Obama 7.2
ME-1
Obama 9.7
ME-2
Obama 4.4

Maryland
Obama 18.8

Massachusetts
Obama 20.6

Michigan
Obama 8.4

Minnesota
Obama 11.4

Mississippi
McCain 11.6

Missouri
Obama 0.3

Montana
McCain 9.0

Nebraska
McCain 21.1
NE-1
McCain 15.0
NE-2
McCain 13.7
NE-3
McCain 36.2

Nevada
Obama 3.1

New Hampshire
Obama 5.7

New Jersey
Obama 11.4

New Mexico
Obama 6.5

New York
Obama 19.9

North Carolina
McCain 2.5

North Dakota
McCain 11.8

Ohio
Obama 4.0

Oklahoma
McCain 23.9

Oregon
Obama 11.8

Pennsylvania
Obama 8.4

Rhode Island
Obama 17.8

South Carolina
McCain 14.7

South Dakota
McCain 14.0

Tennessee
McCain 12.3

Texas
McCain 13.4

Utah
McCain 33.3

Vermont
Obama 19.9

Virginia
Obama 2.0

Washington
Obama 11.4

West Virginia
McCain 4.1

Wisconsin
Obama 8.1

Wyoming
McCain 26.1


Version: 19

Obama (D): 49.6%
McCain (R): 48.4%
Other : 2.0%

State-by-state estimates, as of 9/24. The number in parentheses is the calculated probability of the candidate winning the state:

Alabama
McCain 21.2 (100.0)

Alaska
McCain 21.0 (99.9)

Arizona
McCain 10.8 (99.6)

Arkansas
McCain 11.6 (99.9)

California
Obama 15.0 (100.0)

Colorado
Obama 3.7 (93.1)

Connecticut
Obama 14.8 (100.0)

Delaware
Obama 10.3 (100.0)

D. C.
Obama 75.8 (100.0)

Florida
McCain 1.8 (84.3)

Georgia
McCain 13.3 (99.7)

Hawaii
Obama 28.2 (100.0)

Idaho
McCain 29.6 (100.0)

Illinois
Obama 15.7 (99.6)

Indiana
McCain 5.1 (98.5)

Iowa
Obama 7.9 (93.3)

Kansas
McCain 14.9 (99.7)

Kentucky
McCain 17.1 (100.0)

Louisiana
McCain 10.1 (99.2)

Maine
Obama 10.7 (99.7)
ME-1 Obama 12.9
ME-2 Obama 8.2

Maryland
Obama 15.0 (100.0)

Massachusetts
Obama 16.0 (100.0)

Michigan
Obama 5.0 (100.0)

Minnesota
Obama 2.5 (99.8)

Mississippi
McCain 14.3 (100.0)

Missouri
McCain 3.0 (100.0)

Montana
McCain 10.5 (100.0)

Nebraska
McCain 22.5 (100.0)
NE-1 McCain 16.2
NE-2 McCain 13.6
NE-3 McCain 38.2

Nevada
McCain 1.0 (69.0)

New Hampshire
Obama 1.5 (67.2)

New Jersey
Obama 6.9 (99.8)

New Mexico
Obama 6.8 (100.0)

New York
Obama 17.0 (100.0)

North Carolina
McCain 3.3 (95.9)

North Dakota
McCain 12.6 (98.3)

Ohio
McCain 1.5 (80.9)

Oklahoma
McCain 26.1 (100.0)

Oregon
Obama 8.3 (99.9)

Pennsylvania
Obama 4.5 (93.5)

Rhode Island
Obama 21.2 (100.0)

South Carolina
McCain 13.1 (96.3)

South Dakota
McCain 12.9 (98.4)

Tennessee
McCain 14.5 (99.7)

Texas
McCain 11.1 (97.6)

Utah
McCain 33.3 (100.0)

Vermont
Obama 18.9 (100.0)

Virginia
Obama 0.1 (51.4)

Washington
Obama 6.8 (97.8)

West Virginia
McCain 3.4 (100.0)

Wisconsin
Obama 5.2 (87.0)

Wyoming
McCain 25.6 (98.7)


Version: 18

Obama (D): 49.6%
McCain (R): 48.6%
Other: 1.8%

Projected state-by-state margins, as of 9/20. The number in parentheses is the calculated probability of that candidate winning the state:

National
Obama 1.0 (63.7)

Alabama
McCain 21.3 (100.0)

Alaska
McCain 20.6 (99.9)

Arizona
McCain 13.0 (100.0)

Arkansas
McCain 11.5 (97.5)

California
Obama 14.8 (100.0)

Colorado
Obama 0.5 (53.9)

Connecticut
Obama 15.2 (100.0)

Delaware
Obama 10.6 (100.0)

D. C.
Obama 72.5 (100.0)

Florida
McCain 2.1 (77.7)

Georgia
McCain 12.9 (99.5)

Hawaii
Obama 25.7 (100.0)

Idaho
McCain 30.4 (100.0)

Illinois
Obama 15.9 (99.9)

Indiana
McCain 4.2 (96.4)

Iowa
Obama 6.6 (92.0)

Kansas
McCain 18.2 (98.1)

Kentucky
McCain 17.5 (100.0)

Louisiana
McCain 11.4 (99.7)

Maine
Obama 11.0 (99.8)

Maryland
Obama 14.0 (100.0)

Massachusetts
Obama 18.4 (100.0)

Michigan
Obama 4.5 (92.8)

Minnesota
Obama 7.0 (85.5)

Mississippi
McCain 14.5 (100.0)

Missouri
McCain 3.6 (100.0)

Montana
McCain 9.0 (99.1)

Nebraska
McCain 23.2 (100.0)

Nevada
McCain 2.0 (85.3)

New Hampshire
Obama 1.3 (69.5)

New Jersey
Obama 7.5 (98.9)

New Mexico
Obama 4.6 (89.6)

New York
Obama 17.2 (100.0)

North Carolina
McCain 5.3 (94.0)

North Dakota
McCain 10.7 (96.5)

Ohio
McCain 0.4 (55.8)

Oklahoma
McCain 27.8 (100.0)

Oregon
Obama 7.3 (99.9)

Pennsylvania
Obama 3.1 (93.6)

Rhode Island
Obama 22.2 (100.0)

South Carolina
McCain 11.2 (93.0)

South Dakota
McCain 11.3 (96.6)

Tennessee
McCain 17.0 (99.9)

Texas
McCain 11.1 (97.5)

Utah
McCain 34.3 (100.0)

Vermont
Obama 18.8 (99.8)

Virginia
McCain 2.1 (70.6)

Washington
Obama 5.4 (99.9)

West Virginia
McCain 5.7 (81.2)

Wisconsin
Obama 4.6 (81.3)

Wyoming
McCain 26.2 (98.9)


Version: 17

Colorado tilts in McCain's favor, giving him the win, although my model still has Obama winning the popular vote:

National
Obama 0.5

Alabama
McCain 17.1

Alaska
McCain 20.2

Arizona
McCain 12.0

Arkansas
McCain 13.4

California
Obama 14.0

Colorado
McCain 0.4

Connecticut
Obama 15.1

Delaware
Obama 10.0

D. C.
Obama 77.5

Florida
McCain 4.7

Georgia
McCain 13.2

Hawaii
Obama 14.2

Idaho
McCain 28.2

Illinois
Obama 15.9

Indiana
McCain 6.2

Iowa
Obama 8.2

Kansas
McCain 16.3

Kentucky
McCain 15.6

Louisiana
McCain 15.4

Maine
Obama 12.8

Maryland
Obama 12.3

Massachusetts
Obama 17.1

Michigan
Obama 2.9

Minnesota
Obama 6.9

Mississippi
McCain 13.7

Missouri
McCain 3.8

Montana
McCain 11.0

Nebraska
McCain 18.3

Nevada
McCain 1.0

New Hampshire
Obama 2.2

New Jersey
Obama 6.3

New Mexico
Obama 3.0

New York
Obama 15.1

North Carolina
McCain 8.3

North Dakota
McCain 9.3

Ohio
McCain 2.9

Oklahoma
McCain 28.9

Oregon
Obama 7.8

Pennsylvania
Obama 2.6

Rhode Island
Obama 21.9

South Carolina
McCain 10.0

South Dakota
McCain 12.5

Tennessee
McCain 15.6

Texas
McCain 9.0

Utah
McCain 35.5

Vermont
Obama 16.8

Virginia
McCain 1.8

Washington
Obama 5.3

West Virginia
McCain 8.4

Wisconsin
Obama 6.5

Wyoming
McCain 25.1


Version: 16

State by state estimates, as of 9-12:

National
Obama 1.5

Alabama
McCain 17.2

Alaska
McCain 19.5

Arizona
McCain 11.2

Arkansas
McCain 10.8

California
Obama 15.3

Colorado
Obama 0.8

Connecticut
Obama 15.2

Delaware
Obama 8.1

D. C.
Obama 78.3

Florida
McCain 3.9

Georgia
McCain 12.2

Hawaii
Obama 14.7

Idaho
McCain 28.3

Illinois
Obama 17.5

Indiana
McCain 5.5

Iowa
Obama 7.8

Kansas
McCain 16.2

Kentucky
McCain 15.5

Louisiana
McCain 15.3

Maine
Obama 13.0

Maryland
Obama 13.4

Massachusetts
Obama 19.1

Michigan
Obama 3.0

Minnesota
Obama 9.7

Mississippi
McCain 13.6

Missouri
McCain 3.4

Montana
McCain 10.8

Nebraska
McCain 18.1

Nevada
McCain 0.4

New Hampshire
Obama 2.5

New Jersey
Obama 7.1

New Mexico
Obama 2.9

New York
Obama 17.2

North Carolina
McCain 8.3

North Dakota
McCain 9.6

Ohio
McCain 0.2

Oklahoma
McCain 26.3

Oregon
Obama 8.4

Pennsylvania
Obama 3.2

Rhode Island
Obama 22.2

South Carolina
McCain 9.0

South Dakota
McCain 10.8

Tennessee
McCain 13.3

Texas
McCain 8.2

Utah
McCain 31.6

Vermont
Obama 12.9

Virginia
McCain 3.0

Washington
Obama 7.6

West Virginia
McCain 8.2

Wisconsin
Obama 6.8

Wyoming
McCain 24.5


Version: 15

The race tightens, mostly due to the GOP convention bounce.

State by state estimates, as of 9-9-08:

Alabama
McCAIN 16.5

Alaska
McCAIN 12.8

Arizona
McCAIN 10.8

Arkansas
McCAIN 10.7

California
OBAMA 15.3

Colorado
OBAMA 1.4

Connecticut
OBAMA 15.6

Delaware
OBAMA 7.7

D. C.
OBAMA 78.3

Florida
McCAIN 2.3

Georgia
McCAIN 8.2

Hawaii
OBAMA 14.7

Idaho
McCAIN 20.8

Illinois
OBAMA 18.1

Indiana
McCAIN 5.1

Iowa
OBAMA 8.1

Kansas
McCAIN 15.7

Kentucky
McCAIN 15.1

Louisiana
McCAIN 15.1

Maine
OBAMA 11.8

Maryland
OBAMA 13.7

Massachusetts
OBAMA 18.8

Michigan
OBAMA 3.5

Minnesota
OBAMA 10.0

Mississippi
McCAIN 13.1

Missouri
McCAIN 3.7

Montana
McCAIN 6.2

Nebraska
McCAIN 17.3

Nevada
OBAMA 0.4

New Hampshire
OBAMA 0.5

New Jersey
OBAMA 9.2

New Mexico
OBAMA 4.8

New York
OBAMA 17.5

North Carolina
McCAIN 4.3

North Dakota
McCAIN 3.4

Ohio
McCAIN 0.4

Oklahoma
McCAIN 26.0

Oregon
OBAMA 8.5

Pennsylvania
OBAMA 4.0

Rhode Island
OBAMA 22.3

South Carolina
McCAIN 8.5

South Dakota
McCAIN 10.0

Tennessee
McCAIN 13.2

Texas
McCAIN 7.9

Utah
McCAIN 29.3

Vermont
OBAMA 14.5

Virginia
McCAIN 1.6

Washington
OBAMA 7.6

West Virginia
McCAIN 10.4

Wisconsin
OBAMA 7.6

Wyoming
McCAIN 27.1


Version: 14

Popular Vote Estimate:
Obama (D): 49.9%
McCain (R): 47.0%
Other: 3.1%

McCain has made large gains since my last prediction; though they have not materially changed the electoral map, his gains have served to shore up support in traditionally Republican states and have given Obama fewer opportunities to compete on 'enemy turf.'

Only two states (NC and OH) seem equally likely at this moment to vote for either Obama or McCain; all others have a definite lean. This is, of course, prone to change.

Assigning electoral votes proportionally based purely on win probability, Obama has 303.6 to McCain's 227.4. Seven remain unassigned.


Version: 13

Popular vote estimate:
Obama (D) - 50.4%
McCain (R) - 46.6%
Other - 3.1%

The confidence map is based on the probability, from recent polling data, of either candidate winning the state. While states like Iowa or Alaska have been polling consistently close, only one candidate has consistently held a lead there. Therefore, both states are classified as "Strong."

Assigning electoral votes proportionally based on win probabilities, Obama leads McCain 309-222, with 7 electoral votes outstanding.


Version: 12

Obama - 50.4%
McCain - 46.7%


Version: 9

National:
Obama - 50.9
McCain - 46.1
Other - 3.0

Only two projections here give me pause.

First, Nevada has been polling pretty consistently in McCain's favor for several months. Even with Obama's "bounce," McCain is polling ahead. Adjustments may have to be made to account for Nevada's apparent movement *away* from Obama.

Second, Nebraska's congressional districts are, at best, an educated guess. However, no matter how I run it, Obama is narrowly winning/losing NE-2. So, I'll leave it.


Version: 6

This is the first prediction where I've attempted to calculate the vote in the five congressional districts (ME and NE).

In ME, it doesn't make any difference. Obama leads comfortably in both districts.

NE is another story. According to my calculations, Obama enjoys a very narrow lead - roughly half a point over McCain - in NE-2, a lead unlikely to hold unless McCain's overall lead in NE remains below average.


Version: 4

Obama's Top 10:
DC (+81.9)
VT (+25.7)
HI (+21.3)
IL (+21.1)
RI (+19.3)
MD (+14.0)
NY (+12.9)
CA (+12.6)
ME (+12.1)
WA (+10.9)

McCain's Top 10:
UT (+35.0)
AL (+25.2)
KY (+25.0)
ID (+24.8)
OK (+24.7)
WY (+21.7)
AR (+19.5)
NE (+18.8)
TN (+18.0)
SD (+13.3)

10 Closest:
NH (R +0.4)
OH (R +0.7)
CO (D +1.7)
MI (R +1.7)
MO (R +1.9)
NV (R +1.9)
PA (D +2.2)
WI (D +2.9)
VA (R +3.0)
NM (D +3.5)


Version: 3

Hypothetical Obama-McCain matchup.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: nyquil_man (D-AR) 2008-12-01 @ 16:06:51
Update, 12/1:

Well, it was close but no cigar. As expected, I missed MO. I also missed IN and NE-2, missed percentages all over the place, and dramatically overestimated the third party vote (as I thought I would). So, while my overall EV projection (364-174) was close, it was in the wrong states.

Percentage errors are below. Negative numbers represent underestimations; positive numbers represent overestimations:

National
Obama 52.2 Error (0.5)
McCain 45.5 Error (0.3)
Spread 6.7 Error 0.2

Alabama
McCain 59.6 Error (0.7)
Obama 38.6 Error (0.1)
Spread 21.0 Error (0.6)

Alaska
McCain 56.4 Error (3.1)
Obama 40.4 Error 2.6
Spread 16.0 Error (5.7)

Arizona
McCain 50.9 Error (2.7)
Obama 47.0 Error 1.9
Spread 3.9 Error (4.6)

Arkansas
McCain 53.7 Error (5.1)
Obama 44.5 Error 5.7
Spread 9.2 Error (10.8)

California
Obama 59.8 Error (1.2)
McCain 37.4 Error 0.3
Spread 22.4 Error 1.5

Colorado
Obama 51.9 Error (1.6)
McCain 45.4 Error 0.5
Spread 6.5 Error 2.2

Connecticut
Obama 59.0 Error (1.7)
McCain 38.4 Error 0.3
Spread 20.6 Error 2.0

Delaware
Obama 59.6 Error (2.3)
McCain 38.1 Error 1.2
Spread 21.5 Error 3.5

D. C.
Obama 89.1 Error (3.4)
McCain 8.8 Error 2.3
Spread 80.3 Error 5.6

Florida
Obama 50.3 Error (0.6)
McCain 48.0 Error (0.1)
Spread 2.3 Error 0.5

Georgia
McCain 50.9 Error (1.3)
Obama 47.1 Error 0.2
Spread 3.8 Error (1.4)

Hawaii
Obama 64.3 Error (7.6)
McCain 32.8 Error 6.2
Spread 31.5 Error 13.8

Idaho
McCain 61.3 Error -
Obama 35.6 Error (0.4)
Spread 25.7 Error 0.4

Illinois
Obama 60.5 Error (1.3)
McCain 37.5 Error 0.6
Spread 23.0 Error 1.9

Indiana
McCain 50.2 Error 1.3
Obama 47.8 Error (2.1)
Spread 2.4 Error 3.4

Iowa
Obama 55.1 Error 1.2
McCain 42.7 Error (1.7)
Spread 12.4 Error (2.9)

Kansas
McCain 56.1 Error (0.7)
Obama 41.1 Error (0.3)
Spread 15.0 Error (0.4)

Kentucky
McCain 54.9 Error (2.5)
Obama 42.7 Error 1.6
Spread 12.2 Error (4.0)

Louisiana
McCain 53.7 Error (4.9)
Obama 44.6 Error 4.7
Spread 9.1 Error (9.5)

Maine
Obama 56.1 Error (1.6)
McCain 40.4 Error 0.0
Spread 15.7 Error 1.6

Maryland
Obama 59.2 Error (2.7)
McCain 39.0 Error 2.5
Spread 20.2 Error 5.2

Massachusetts
Obama 60.3 Error (1.7)
McCain 35.9 Error (0.4)
Spread 24.4 Error 1.3

Michigan
Obama 55.2 Error (2.2)
McCain 43.0 Error 2.1
Spread 12.2 Error 4.2

Minnesota
Obama 54.7 Error 0.6
McCain 42.0 Error (1.8)
Spread 12.7 Error (2.5)

Mississippi
McCain 54.4 Error (2.1)
Obama 43.7 Error 1.0
Spread 10.7 Error (3.0)

Missouri
Obama 49.1 Error (0.2)
McCain 48.7 Error (0.7)
Spread 0.4 Error (0.6)

Montana
McCain 50.3 Error 0.8
Obama 46.5 Error (0.7)
Spread 3.8 Error 1.5

Nebraska
McCain 58.9 Error 2.1
Obama 38.2 Error (3.1)
Spread 20.7 Error 5.2

Nevada
Obama 51.3 Error (3.9)
McCain 45.5 Error 2.9
Spread 5.8 Error 6.7

New Hampshire
Obama 54.0 Error (0.1)
McCain 44.1 Error (0.4)
Spread 9.9 Error (0.3)

New Jersey
Obama 56.8 Error 0.1
McCain 41.0 Error (1.3)
Spread 15.8 Error (1.4)

New Mexico
Obama 54.6 Error (2.3)
McCain 43.1 Error 1.3
Spread 11.5 Error 3.6

New York
Obama 63.3 Error 1.1
McCain 34.1 Error (2.6)
Spread 29.2 Error (3.7)

North Carolina
Obama 49.2 Error (0.5)
McCain 49.1 Error (0.3)
Spread 0.1 Error 0.2

North Dakota
McCain 51.0 Error (2.1)
Obama 45.7 Error 1.2
Spread 5.3 Error (3.3)

Ohio
Obama 50.4 Error (0.5)
McCain 47.3 Error 0.0
Spread 3.1 Error 0.6

Oklahoma
McCain 62.5 Error (3.1)
Obama 37.5 Error 3.2
Spread 25.0 Error (6.3)

Oregon
Obama 55.9 Error (0.9)
McCain 40.6 Error 0.2
Spread 15.3 Error 1.1

Pennsylvania
Obama 53.1 Error (1.5)
McCain 45.1 Error 0.8
Spread 8.0 Error 2.3

Rhode Island
Obama 59.0 Error (4.1)
McCain 37.1 Error 1.9
Spread 21.9 Error 6.0

South Carolina
McCain 54.6 Error 0.7
Obama 43.6 Error (1.3)
Spread 11.0 Error 2.0

South Dakota
McCain 53.3 Error 0.1
Obama 44.4 Error (0.4)
Spread 8.9 Error 0.5

Tennessee
McCain 55.3 Error (1.6)
Obama 43.1 Error 1.3
Spread 12.2 Error (3.0)

Texas
McCain 54.6 Error (0.8)
Obama 43.6 Error (0.1)
Spread 11.0 Error (0.8)

Utah
McCain 60.9 Error (1.4)
Obama 35.6 Error 1.3
Spread 25.3 Error (2.8)

Vermont
Obama 60.3 Error (7.2)
McCain 36.0 Error 5.6
Spread 24.3 Error 12.7

Virginia
Obama 51.2 Error (1.4)
McCain 47.0 Error 0.7
Spread 4.2 Error 2.1

Washington
Obama 56.8 Error (0.7)
McCain 40.3 Error (0.0)
Spread 16.5 Error 0.6

West Virginia
McCain 52.2 Error (3.5)
Obama 45.5 Error 2.9
Spread 6.7 Error (6.4)

Wisconsin
Obama 54.5 Error (1.8)
McCain 42.6 Error 0.2
Spread 11.9 Error 2.0

Wyoming
McCain 60.3 Error (4.5)
Obama 36.6 Error 4.1
Spread 23.7 Error (8.5)

Last Edit: 2008-12-01 @ 16:10:00
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 5 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 25 0 74T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 5 0 3T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 5 0 6T312
P 2004 President 49/56 35/56 84/112 75.0% pie 3 65 834T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 171/183 135/183 306/366 83.6% pie


Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved