PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - ajv51 (R-KY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:4

Prediction Map
ajv51 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ajv51 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep281
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem207
 
Rep189
 
Ind0
 
Tos142
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+40+26-10-21192231+5
Rep+10+21-40-26273260-5
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
75452541
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

As I had predicted a few weeks ago (without any evidence and relying on my gut instincts), PA is making a late trend towards McCain. yes, he is still down in PA by about 4 points but it is a dramatic improvement from his double digit deficit. I believe he can pull off the upset in this state. Likewise, VA is trending back to McCain again even though he's still a couple of points down. On the other hand, I think McCain will lose NV, CO and NM due to the fact that Hispanics have ironically turned their backs on him. He can save FL since Cuban-Americans typically do not vote like the rest of Hispanics.

I concede that the odds are GREATLY against McCain. Nonetheless, I believe there is a great potential for an upset. The polling companies have been taking into consideration too many questionable assumptions, such as party affiliation, youth turnout (which has been sadly lagging so far), etc. Again, the odds favor Obama but I believe the Mac will be back once again.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 49/56 26/56 75/112 67.0% pie 4 1 702T1,505
P 2004 President 55/56 24/56 79/112 70.5% pie 14 7 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 104/112 50/112 154/224 68.8% pie


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