PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:19

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem367
 
Rep171
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep141
 
Ind0
 
Tos86
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+100+115000202252+115
Rep000-100-115213171-115
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
96484143
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

I've analyzed all of the data, crunched all of the numbers, reviewed the trends, and looked at the get out the vote operations and voter enthusiasm, and this is the most likely result I can come up with. No more lean states at this point: I've decided that either I'm certain on a state or I'm not, no in-betweens. Missouri remains the most flippable state, I just can't get a good read of what's happening there. Regardless, unless the polls are wrong on a historic level, Barack Obama will be our 44th President. I expect him to have around a 9% lead over McCain in the popular vote. In a high-turnout landslide scenario, I think he could actually pull off upset victories in Georgia and Nebraska's second congressional district.

One final word:

VOTE


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 264
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie


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