Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:19

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	367
Rep	171
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	141
Ind	0
Tos	86

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+10	0	+115	0	0	0	20	2	252	+115
Rep	0	0	0	-10	0	-115	21	3	171	-115
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
96	48	41	4	3

Analysis

I've analyzed all of the data, crunched all of the numbers, reviewed the trends, and looked at the get out the vote operations and voter enthusiasm, and this is the most likely result I can come up with. No more lean states at this point: I've decided that either I'm certain on a state or I'm not, no in-betweens. Missouri remains the most flippable state, I just can't get a good read of what's happening there. Regardless, unless the polls are wrong on a historic level, Barack Obama will be our 44th President. I expect him to have around a 9% lead over McCain in the popular vote. In a high-turnout landslide scenario, I think he could actually pull off upset victories in Georgia and Nebraska's second congressional district.

One final word:

VOTE

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	1	124	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	29/36	63/72	87.5%	6	1	11	T	272
2020 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	18	6	359	T	684
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	26	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	26	3	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	33/56	84/112	75.0%	37	1	87	T	678
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	11	4	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	6	3	73	T	300
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	30	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	7	1	40	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	19/52	64/104	61.5%	42	-	25	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	30/37	65/74	87.8%	26	1	5		456
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	6	1	29	T	312
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	19	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	19/52	56/104	53.8%	15	-	58	T	271
Aggregate Predictions	589/649	421/649	1010/1298	77.8%

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