Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-11-13 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Analysis

More States are becoming competitive as the Primary/Caucus races loom head for both parties.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2007-11-14 @ 12:22:07
I do not think that the upper midwest will favor anyone but the Dems. War is strong issue/female vote trending Dems/will be a third party to drain libertarians...welcome aboard

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-11-14 @ 17:12:04
In a GOP landslide, such a scenario is possible. I doubt it will happen, but the theoretical possibility is always there.

By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-14 @ 19:17:38
I love it, great map!

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-11-16 @ 04:55:56
Stop drooling, CR. I have to clean up my keypad again!!! :)

By: BenNebbich (O-NAM) 2007-11-16 @ 05:16:50
i still think a gop victory i possible as the democrat candidates turn out as not so strong as looked upon a few months ago. on the other hand where is the gop candidate who can produce a landslide like this?

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-16 @ 10:48:36
Reagan died! There isn't anyone in the GOP field today that possess the charisma of Reagan- certainly not Giuliani and Romney. Do people really think the political climate is favorable for the GOP in 2008 with the war continuing and the economy souring? I just can not see, given the current climate the GOP winning WA, OR, MN, MI, DE, and NJ. On a very good night for the GOP I could concede they would do well in WI, IA, NM, and possibly NH, just due to the general, historicaly closeness of these states, politically. But this is purely wishful thinking. I can't see how either party is going to break 300-320EV's???

By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-16 @ 17:35:53
I don't think the climate is as unfavorible as you say. We are winning the war, we will being to bring the surge troops home around December. And with all do respect Democrats have a charge and say in DC now. You run congress regardless of the number of seats. Your responsible for everything from the war to the economy to immigration to judges just as much as the Republicans are. But I digress. I think this year the people are furious with DC and we'll see who is left standing after the smoke clears. I have a feeling we are going to have a mixed bag. Last Edit: 2007-11-16 @ 17:36:20

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-16 @ 17:52:41
I don't think the USA is "winning" the war. The fact is casulaties are down. The benchmarks for Iraq are far from being met and the tension with Iran continues to mount. That said, I believe that while we are suppossedly "winning," lets call it a day and start withdrawing troops in larger numbers so instead of worrying about 40 soldiers dead a month we can have NO casualties. And we are only bringing 5000 "surge" troops home in Dec. It won't be until June/July when the 30,000 are brought home. But even with American casualties down anti-war sentiment is at an all time high! Accompanied with that, Americans are now facing an economy headed for recession. And you and I both know that though we have a split government, the President almost always gets the final say in most matters- that was the case with Clinton and it is the case today with Bush. Likewise it is the President who is the "face" of the nation, not the Congress. When something goes well, or not so well, it is the president and the president's party that takes the credit or the blame. You might be a little more sophisticatd to realize that there is a power-share, but the majority of Americans equate the current situation (good or bad) with the current administration. FACT!!! Last Edit: 2007-11-16 @ 17:54:52

By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2007-11-16 @ 18:01:44
Republicans must be the partying of lowering the expectations of Americans. Less casualties=winning, even if none of the political objectives are being achieved.

By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-16 @ 18:04:32
The point is we are crushing Al Quade in Iraq. The capital is almost completely secured and the people are standing up for themselves because they are sick of the violence. We will being to bring surge troops home first and we'll follow that with regulars. Even Hillary and Obama said that they would have troops there until at least 2013. Also I don't believe those anti-war polls. If they are true then I want the Democrats to do what they are doing now, withhold the funds. Do it and not a dime till we bring the troops home. We'll see where the people stand then. And I feel the economy will get better. We still have growth, the market is strong, and we do have job growth (real jobs not the low paying ones). I am touched you think I'm sophisticated! I think you can be pretty smart yourself. But I also believe that the people are smart enough to know of power sharing. They know the Democrats run congress. Like it or not, we are as parties, in this together and will share the responsibilies on election day. But that's just my opinion. Last Edit: 2007-11-16 @ 19:26:12

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2007-11-16 @ 18:06:54
I must agree with ConservRep that the war in Iraq has improved and not just the death count. There seems to be some political progress in regions which were hostile a short time ago. However, saying that the economy is tanking so I believe we will still have troops Iraq election day, and the desire for change in direction will aid Dems as well as a woman running which is a change no matter how long she has been in DC. Saying that I would rather have another candidate than any person running who is considered having a chance,.....

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-11-17 @ 13:32:30
There is no way to measure the progress in Iraq as long as el quada is in hiding. This is not the first time that there was a lull, only to have us face a brutal insurgency a couple of months on. I hope it does not happen again, but if it does, remember my words. El quaeda is far from crushed, it is hiding. And once again, CR is ignoring the fact that the DEM congress does not have a veto-proof majority. They can cut the funds after the GOP filibusters until the messiah comes (or returns, depending on your take) and when it goes through, the POTUS can put through an emergency exec. order still keeping the troops there. Is a nasty chess game, and CR knows this. Which means that not just the DEMS are playing politics here.

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