PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - doniki80 (I-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:80

Prediction Map
doniki80 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
doniki80 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep156
 
Ind0
 
Tos71
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
99494442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Last prediction map:
November 3, 2008

Closest states: MO, NC, IN, ND, FL

House: Dem gain 25-30
Senate: Dem gain 7-8 (Coleman wins over Franken in MN, Georgia goes to a runoff)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-03 @ 18:04:42
Doniki...are you feeling pessimistic today? lol I just don't think Obama is going to do that well...let's hope not anyway. By the way...I am very curious as to what you look like =) You are just sort of around the corner and all =) prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-04 @ 09:39:13
The Day is here.
Last Update November 4th:

House: Dem Gain 25-30 (maybe more)

Likely Dem pickups- AK-AL, AZ-1, CO-4, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, NC-8, NJ-3, NM-1, NY-13, NY-25, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11

Lean Dem pickups- CA-4, CT-4, ID-1, MI-7, MI-9, MN-6, NJ-7 NM-2, NV-3, NY-29, PA-3,

Tossups- AL-2, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, IA-4, IL-10, IN-3, LA-4, MD-1, MN-3, NJ-5, NV-2, NY-26, OH-1, WA-8, TX-10, VA-2, VA-5, WY-AL,


Likely GOP pickups- FL-16, TX-22

Lean GOP pickups- PA-11

Tossup- AL-5, PA-12


Senate: Dem Gain of 7-9

Likely GOP pickups- CO, NM, NH, VA

Lean GOP pickups- AK, NC, OR

Tossups- MN, GA (due to likely runoff)

In regards to the House races, there appear to be an increasingly large number of tossups in that once safe GOP districts become more engaged, especially as the DCCC has poured money into races once not thought of as competitive. At the same time the majority of Open GOP seats appear poised for Dem pickups, but as the RCCC has pulled out of some seats they feel are unsalvageable and poured money into other competitive races, they may be saving a few seats from Dem takeover.

_______________________


@Colin- Are you flirting with me? :) I've never had a Canadian that wasn't on ice before! ;) I've also never been with a conservative gay before. You don't like Obama, right? What are your feelings about Hillary? We will have to wait and see. I have very high political standards for potential beaus. lol...

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 09:52:34
prediction Map

 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 16:21:06
hmm.....flirting? me? =) lol

You know, gay conservatives DO exist...why do people have such a hard time with that? lol As for Obama, I don't know if I have ever felt more strongly about someone not getting elected. As for Hillary...to be completely open and honest with you, I didn't like her at all before the primary season began. Through it all, I grew to have an immense respect for her as a human being and a politician. My impression was that she was just power hungry, but I now believe that my impression was largely influenced by the media. When she really started to open up and show some vulnerability...she proved to me there was a real person in there. So, to make a long story short, I felt for her tremendously at the end of it all (and yes, I believe Obama did everything in his power to destroy her). Between you and me (don't tell my conservative friends...lol) but I would have been okay with her being president if she had won. I know that doesn't sound very emphatic, but that says a lot given how I felt a year ago. As for your political standards for potential beaus...I have them as well...one of mine is someone who stands up for what is right. I think you do that and I respect you greatly for it. =)
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-17 @ 16:30:52
Doniki, thought to stop by and say hello. Check out the newest films and photos of Marlene on my family blog, btw...prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-18 @ 10:57:45
I will do that. I hope all is well with you guys. This is going to be Marlene's second or third Christmas? Is she going to be spoiled with Gifts? She gets the best of both worlds- Christmas and Channukah!prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-18 @ 11:46:45
It will be her 2nd Christmas and Chanukah, respectively. And Nikolaus-Tag is coming up on Dec. 6th. Yes, Papa is spoiling the little princess....prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 250
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 25 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 24/36 56/72 77.8% pie 21 3 94T372
P 2016 President 51/56 36/56 87/112 77.7% pie 53 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 18/34 50/68 73.5% pie 33 1 89T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 5/12 15/24 62.5% pie 5 1 47T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 17/36 51/72 70.8% pie 56 0 200T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 40 0 192T300
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 96 1 47T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 26 2 20T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 16/52 6/52 22/104 21.2% pie 3 - 187T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 20/37 54/74 73.0% pie 73 1 151T456
P 2010 Governor 36/37 19/37 55/74 74.3% pie 50 2 118T312
P 2008 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 80 1 26T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 16 4 117T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 46/52 26/52 72/104 69.2% pie 10 - 7T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 10/49 3/49 13/98 13.3% pie 1 - 195T235
Aggregate Predictions 537/650 343/650 880/1300 67.7% pie


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