PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Liberalrocks (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:53

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Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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Prediction History
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Comments History - show

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Member Comments
 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-03 @ 23:37:18
I too thought McCain would prevail in North Carolina, but I'm not sure now with the early voting - as apparently it's been huge & mostly Democrat.
It's completely lineball though, & on '04 results it's a 14% swing, so even if Obama doesn't win it, he has done well in a once reliably Red state.

Last Edit: 2008-11-03 @ 23:46:05
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-03 @ 23:44:52
You may very well be right but todays polls all point toward him taking a lead again. I think that rural white voters will put him over the top but again with early voting (which mainly was black) and the larger cities Raleigh Charlotte Wake Forest it will be close eithier way. I wont be sad to see Elizabeth Dole go even as a new republican. She was useless and always caved to party demands no backbone. The "godless" ad was really in poor taste as Hagan is a good religious woman.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-03 @ 23:48:05
I used to be a bit of a fan of Elizabeth Dole, until I went off the Rpublicans some time ago.
& to think she ran for the Presidency in 00 wasn't it?
How the mighty have fallen.
I still wouldn't be surprised if she scraped in.
But either way it's close.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-03 @ 23:51:49
What's this R behind your name now?
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 By: Tokar (D-VA) 2008-11-03 @ 23:53:28
If Obama turns around everything will you still be anti-Obama?

By everything I mean...
-get out of the wars
-turn around the market
-turn around the housing market
-turn around the national debt
-improve domestic spending on social services
-improve our standing around the globe
-improve the value of the dollar
-reduce our dependence on foreign oil
-make it easier to get health insurance and make it cheaper
etc. etc.
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 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-03 @ 23:58:45
Congratulations Rocks... I hope you all find yourselves out there in the wilderness and come back as the party of TR and the party of Lincoln. Make it compelling enough and maybe I will join you (after Obama's terms are up).prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-03 @ 23:59:10
Tokar---HE WONT. He will be a Black Jimmy Carter.

By your definition of "turning everything around" then yes I will still be anti-Obama as you are clearly one of his followers.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 00:01:30
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 00:00:07
Oh go shove it liberallover.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 00:05:33
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 00:10:31
Demboy what I have found this season is that I agree with the republicans more then 50% of the time particuliarly on taxes and MY money being re-distributed. I work hard I dont need to pay for the bums on the street or someone who is making minimum wage. We dont need to spend more on social programs in the middle of a recession nor do we need to tax small buisness who will be helping us rev up the economy again.I also dont agree with Obama's naviety in foreign policy. So I would say I proably agree with republicans at least 60 % of the time if not closer to 70% of the time.

Im sorry I want out of the Pelosi-Obama-Dean party. A great way to oppose them is to join the republicans.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 00:12:16
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 02:38:30
What has Pelosi done that's got you so mad with her?
I don't understand.
Ditto with Obama.
Obama & Hillary were so close on the issues it's not funny.
I think it's all about personality & that's fine.
Obama is not going to redistribute the wealth that is a Republican lie/sound bite.
If you earn under 250,000 you will get a tax cut.
& for those that earn over 250,000 it will go back to what it was under Clinton is my understanding.
What's wrong with that?
Maybe if Bush didn't hand out all those tax cuts in the first place your economy would be a bit stronger at the moment than it is.
I think you guys pay less tax than we do anyway.
Some of the best countries in the world - standard of living - are socialist orientated.
You don't see ghettoes in Sweden now do you?
I can quite confidently say that I think big business will still rule in America no matter what & Obama is hardly socialist.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 02:40:53
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:03:37
Pelosi's leadership has been a disaster.

I disagree with you on Obama and Hillary but thats fine it doesnt matter you will get your messiah very soon.

Sarah 2012 !
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:04:20
Socialism belongs in Europe not my country!prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 03:08:32
Socialism is great except for the taxes!
He's not my Messiah but I do like him now.
I'm sad his Grandmother died before seeing him win hopefully.
What do you think about Dixville Notch in New Hampshire voting Obama 15 to 6 for McCain, first time since 1968 the village has voted Democrat.
Let's hope that's a sign.
Fingers all crossed.
No to Palin.
Now you have become a Republican let me assure you you have better women then her.
Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Kay Bailey-Hutchison, Susan Molinari etc.
Hell even Elizabeth Dole.
Is it just me or does she look very plastic? If you know what I mean.
I saw a recent photo of her & thought good lord woman stop it.

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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:11:46
New Hampshire is definetly lost to Mc Cain that one doesnt suprise me.

Colorado and Virginia appear closer in polling then New Hampshire did.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 03:26:51
I know weird.
I thought McCain would have a strong shot at New Hampshire, but it's drifted away again in the last week or so.
You'll be ok either way.
I thought it was the end of the world when Bush won - twice.
Well not really but it was not good but I got over it.
Then again I don't live there, so it is obviously worse.
As Gloria Gaynor sung darling - I Will Survive!

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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:44:44
McCain 1.0 would have had a chance. McCain 2.0, that is Bush 3.0, is not on good ground. New Hampshire will probably follow the evolution of Vermont in years to come, though not quite as liberal or as weirdo (somehow I don't see a socialist Senator from NH...).prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-04 @ 07:54:19
Liberalrocks welcome to the fold my friend. Always good to have another Republican on board! Even if you are a liberal Snowe/Rockefeller like Republican I'll take all the voices and votes we can get. If we lose you are so right in that it will be time to dig in as the opposition and rebuild our party. This election is not over yet, however, I think your map is the best Obama win senerio, minus Ohio. I believe John will carry Ohio but he may lose Nevada. We'll see.

The key states to watch for tonight are Virginia, Pennslyvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri. They'll tell us a lot about the state of the race. We just may be in for a few suprises.

McCain/Palin 2008!!!
Palin/Jindal 2012!!!

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 07:55:10
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 08:06:16
Palin is history & will be history for 012 if not you guys will loose even more.
But that's just my opinion.
She has rallied the base but not much else.
Jindal on the other hand is probably worth a look at.
I would say Virginia has gone a while ago.
Pennsylvania seems to be strengthening for Obama in last few polls.
New Hampshire gone.
Hell you guys couldn't even win Dixville Notch - hasn't voted Democrat since '68 - that's an ominous sign if you ask me, & possible sign of a big swing on there to Obama.
North Carolina - totally line ball, early voting may swing it to Obama.
Ohio - I'm going to say Obama with big turn out.
I would love to see Hamilton county go, but maybe stay Republican by 1-3 points.
Florida - very lineball, which is still great considering Bush won it by 5 points 4 years ago.
Will we see a repeat of the chad fiasco?
Different voting system I know but awfully close once again.
I think Obama can win Florida.
The theme is everything is down on 4 years ago.
Missouri - I think Obama can scratch out a win on turnout.
100,000 in St Louis, & 75,000 in Kansas City says something is going on there.
Have you voted yet?
What's the weather like?
I'm off to bed & hope to wake up cheering on the Obama wins in the morning here!
Don't worry I won't be sleeping in!

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 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-04 @ 08:13:09
The weather is just fine and I was in line at a quarter to six this morning. My ballot has been cast. Let me stay this, the whole St Louis thing with 100000, how many where from Illinois right next door? Palin has attracted good turnout in our state too. And win or lose she's not done yet. We'd have never come this far without her. Had McCain picked anyone else I think we'd have lost for sure. That of course is my opinion.

But we'll see, we'll see. Allow the people to speak and then move on.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 08:22:12
True but right next door Illinois is fairly Republican isn't it?
That is the part of Illinois near St Louis.
How far is St Louis from Chicago?
I guess people could have driven down.
I agree I don't think she has been as bad for your ticket as some initially thought (myself included).
She has rallied the base, & if she didn't McCain wouldn't have, & would probably be going down even worse today.
But she's become the butt of jokes & ridicule (poor woman) & has entered Dan Quayle territory, so I don't know.
She'll need to polish up her act a bit, starting with getting some of her facts right (eg VP job description) for one would be good.
But good luck to her I guess.
I think you guys can and will probably need to do better though.
Jindal or Pawlenty at this stage would be better choices IMO.
I hope she does well in Alaska though.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 08:24:02
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 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-04 @ 08:32:25
Not really, you have East St Louis, IL and it is heavily Democratic. So are several of the other counties in Illinois that border the St Louis region. I believe St Louis is about a 3 or 4 hour drive from Chicago. I know a lot of people that go up to Chicago for the week from St Louis. So I guess its not that far.

Personally I think Biden is the butt of many a joke himself. He's like a Dan Quayle to me. I guess it really depends on what side of the political divide you fall on. I believe that after serve as Alaska govenor for 4 more years, should we lose, that she'd be in prime condition to run in 2012. Sarah would certain have no problems in the GOP primaries I can tell you that much.

I'm also a big fan of Jindal. He her co-rising star as far as I'm concerned and I'd love to see them run for the White House together. That's my dream ticket, Palin/Jindal. But there are other great conservatives too - Pence, Blackburn, DeMint, Cantor, Steele, and so on and so forth. The GOP has bright days ahead of itself! Let's hear it for more optmism!
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 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 08:42:06
Liberal--hell, I might join you if Obama proves to be an effing disaster! Save a seat for me on the Republican luxury yacht!!!

As soon as this election is over--and I mean it!--I'm going to register as an Independent! I've absolutely had it!

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 08:43:44
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 08:45:54
Gosh I don't know of any of those other people you've mentioned.
Oh Blackburn is the woman from Tennessee?
Yeah she seems ok, I'm sure I would hate her views, but she speaks/presents herself well.

I'm no great fan of Biden, Obama could have done much better eg Hillary!
Those two I think would have been lethal this year.
You would have seen West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, & perhaps Tennessee also in play, certainly alot closer.
+ no Hillary fan leakage to the McCain.
Hell I think we would have even kept Liberalrocks!

I'm off to bed it's nearly midnight, & I'm stuffed, worked today, too much Champagne half way through for Melbourne Cup...

Take care.

I'll look forward to reading the post election analysis, as long as we win, otherwise it might take me a day or two to regroup...
probably not.

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 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 09:15:34
ConservRep--I think there will be surprises.

Here's to a night of surprises, my friend!

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 09:16:28
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 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 16:51:45
I think we are in for some surprises as well...I don't know to what extent though. I still see Obama winning, but the electoral margin many have him winning by is just not conceivable to me. Again, I hope you guys are right!prediction Map

 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-06 @ 23:44:14
Congratulations, Lib! You lost the right to marry. You and your Republican friends must be very happy.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 01:03:02
OK Liberallover Im going to break Prop 8 down to you and if you dont believe me go review exit polling.
For this election as you all so strongly proclaim polling was 100%Right! huh? well not as far as this initiative was concerned.

The No on 8 forces including myself and YES other non-homosexual republicans were ahead in the polls anywhere from 3 -6 percent going into this election we lost 52/48. Oh but lets review why we lost.

But first lets review what groups we won.

We won a majority of white voters state wide
We won upper income, 4 year degree or higher educated.
We won asian and jewish americans
We won women.
We outpolled expectations among republicans and outpolled expectations in certain republican leaning counties including the republican stronghold Orange county where we got 44% of the vote.

Lets review where we lost

African Americans the same group energized about equality and your messiah. We lost them 75% to 25%. Hmm how many of them are registered Democrats? How many voted for Obama the "liberal" savior? So much for that right wing stealing equality for us lol.

We lost Hispanic Americans by a wide but less pronounced margin. Another group who voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

So we actually did better amoung Republicans then you eithier know or care to admit. Most likely you havent taken time to examine the statistics. Or are you trying to rub something you clearly have not reviewed right in my face? Something I worked long and hard on and am still protesting as we speak.

I know this I worked my heart out on this campaign again with Republicans who supportive vs. groups who voted for obama. Groups who have by their very nature faced discrimination throughout their lifetime.

That being said for the past 3 days and yes nights there have been protests going on all over Los Angeles San Francisco and a few others scattered about the state. In an attempt to have it overturned by the courts. Several lawsuits are being filed--Its a complete mess but the fight is not over.

So really dont try to make implications when you have no clue what the -real- situation was and just why it passed. We again received much more support from registered republicans then we did "liberal" african americans

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 03:20:14
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 01:15:26
Its truly ironic that for the past 3 days I have had to accept defeat to your messiah. One whom's election the media proclaims to have broken the ultimate barrier. Only to have watched my rights being (hopefully temporarily) taken from me in the same night. By people who endured discrimination and claim to be voting for Obama to break the ultimate barrier.

Truly Ironic.....Go drink some more kool aide there will be a surplus for quite some time ,,no doubt.

None for me thanks....Still looking for substance over rhetoric in whom I support.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 01:15:47
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:29:23
Well Liberal I'm sure you know that Conservative groups that are die hard Republicans or Republican supporters were hell bent in passing this proposition.

Sorry to see it though, but not surprised.
At least it wasn't as bad as the vote in Florida.

The 70% support from African Americans in passing this bill does not surprise me, as there is alot of homophobia in this community - just look at the hate filled lyrics by many Rap artists.
Socially they can be quite a conservative community.

Glad to see you're back to being an Independent - what happened?
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 02:35:50
Again read my above anaylysis about the measure. Minorities who know discrimination voted for discrimination. Scapegoating of another group of people without regard for thier own past struggles.... in a year when their barrier was broken they made ours that much harder. So much for seperation of church and state.

Read my map analysis about my party affiliation, I truly dont know where I fit or that I want a title. What I do know is that I will be voting republican and donating to various campaigns for as long as Obama is in the white house.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 02:39:17
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:41:34
This is human nature unfortunately Liberal.
We love to discriminate others!
Look at the Jews with the Palestinians, straight after the Holocaust.
I know there's 2 sides there but to a certain extent the Palestinians have been treated badly.
I'm not anti Jewish, I just say it's human nature, stronger over weaker etc.
I do think however it's getting to the point at least in the Western World that we are the last group - Gays & Lesbians that are being totally discriminated against & it's unacceptable.
The fact that these discriminatory measures are allowed to go to the ballot is unacceptable.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 02:42:55
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 02:45:43
There is hope, Liberal:

> Warning: extremely emotional content!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:50:28
Liberal will be fine I'm sure she'll see the light re Obama.
Might just take a while........

I'm so looking forward to it so over Bush so over the Republican party.

They deserve a stint in the wilderness, hell we certainly didn't.

If we've had to put up with Bush for 8 years I think that gives the Dems at least 12!
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 03:09:39
Thanks wingindy.
I had actually heard that clip on the radio and was moved but to watch it is a different experience. We had many republicans vote with us you would be suprised. Again as I stated above. Realize though that California Republicans ( in the schwartzenegger mold) are less socially conservative then those from the mid-west and south. Thats why I had considered a change in party affiliation but then declined when taking a second look at the base of the party.

Well the truth be told I proably do agree with the two of you on more issues then I have admitted through out this campaign. I could however not bring myself to support the messiah. I have major issues with this man and his qualifications and I just dont like him- flat out.

Having said that he talks a good game...
Now lets see him deliver, With respect to the issue we've been discussing What will he do for the gay community? Will he speak out on this issue in the next 4 possibly 8 years?

I will say he is more likely to nominate a justice to the supreme court that would be more lgbt friendly that is reassuring. Unfortuanately Ruth Ginsberg and John Paul Stevens are in poor health they have been very good to our community.

I will be watching, Yes I could come back to the party I have such contempt for at the moment. Pelosi is sure not going to make that happen neithier is Dean. So we will see in time.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 03:12:53
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 03:16:45
We are fighting this in court,We are protesting in the streets. We will fight this and we will overcome in time.

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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 04:28:29
Keep up the good fight Liberalrocks!
To have the Supreme Court overuled by a ballot initiative seems a bit ridiculous to me.
Why have the Supreme Court?
Why not just rule by referendum in that case?
They can't retroactively deny those already married.

I for one hope you come back to the Dems.
But Ind is ok too.

I was hurt too when Hillary lost just came round alot quicker.
She really was great for Obama, he owes her some thanks that is for sure.
Hillary worked tirelessly for him which really was amazing after such a heated Primary campaign.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 14:48:18
Obama would not have won in Indiana without the contested primary here against Hillary in May. No doubt. I imagine the same goes for North Carolina. Thank God for Hillary!!

Hip Hip!
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 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-07 @ 15:59:30
I think everybody knows the majority of the African American community is homophobic. Like demboy said, listen to the lyrics of rap music. But it wasn't African Americans who proposed Prop 8, Liberal. It was the Republicans, the Christians and the Sarah Palins. It's certainly not OBAMA's fault that the black community is homophobic; in fact, he has spoken out against the behavior the black community on a number of occasions.

You fought prop 8 day and night, but encouraged people to vote for Sarah Palin. That's called shitting against the tide.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-07 @ 21:57:38
Id do it all again!! Not so much for Sarah Palin but in support of Mc Cain.

Water under the bridge you have your messiah lets see if he can deliver. I certaintly am watching....

Im not opposed to giving him a chance I just dont have any faith he can deliver upon the smooth slogans after the hype dies.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 15:31:17
The messiah doesn't need bridges. He walks over water and parts the seas for his supporters to cross.

But seriously, I think people are probably going to be a little disappointed in the following months.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-08 @ 15:46:58
I see the Omaha district went for Obama which gives him another electoral vote 375-163. There will be much that the new President elect will be unable to do once in power but he will govern more from the center I predict.

Thanks for your passionate defense of your positions, I praise you for this honest emotional and intellectual commitment to your causes.
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-08 @ 15:53:52
The question is, if Obama *does* deliver, will you, liberal rocks, admit you were wrong about him and then support him? Or will you stubbornly hold onto your hatred of him?

If the later what does that imply? If all the reasons for opposing Obama fall through the roof (as half of them already have, such as you Hillary supporters insistence that he couldn't get elected) and there is nothing left, and you still refuse to back him, does that mean there is really another reason for hating him which you are not stating or admitting to?

I will give you the benefit of the doubt, though, and assume that if Obama delivers and ends up being an effective president who gets through most of what he has promised, that you will then support him.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-08 @ 17:01:38
I will support him if he delivers.... There I said it and it wasnt easy.

There are many things I hate about this man the slogans the empty promises the lack of accomplishments, The empty rock star idolism that is built on words not actions or again *ANY ACCOMPLISHMENTS* I also dislike most of his supporters...

I will support him if he proves himself, However I dont know if I can ever go back to the democratic party although Im not sure I want to embrace the republican party just yet eithier.
I truly am disappointed but not blinded in complete hatred I just have no faith in him and doubt he can deliver upon the cheap slogans. Time will tell but again I am open to hearing him out.

Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 17:06:29
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-08 @ 17:05:14
This election just like the last two have left me very disappointed and my faith in the american people choices in leadership. I see Obama as a democratic liberal version of George W Bush. I see similiarities to Jimmy Carter in the way he is coming to Washington. Now it remains to be seen if we see the same naviety in an administration as we saw in Carters or if he does become a strong leader and is able to become the next FDR/Truman/Kennedy/Reagan combinations and truly be an affective leaderprediction Map

 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-08 @ 17:10:49
Please do not put REAGAN, the guy who ignored HIV and ignored millions in poverty, into the same group as FDR, Truman and Kennedy.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-08 @ 17:15:50
LOL Fair Enough.

I had just thrown him in there as the american public widely considers him very successful.

As you know Im not a huge Reagan fan myself.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-08 @ 17:21:36
If I wasnt prepared to see Obama out I would not have returned to comment on post election results.

Surely you must see that I am here and commenting and you know how much I oppose him. I however was not blinded as to his coming victory in the closing days of this awful campaign.
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-08 @ 17:35:06
As a Hillary supporter I'm willing to give Obama a chance, just like I did Bush. Not to rehash electability, but I had thought that Hillary was more electable because she had a base of support from her husband. She was also more moderate and the dems that have been elected have been more moderate Dems. Obama was not ahead until Hillary dropped out in June and throughout the summer If you look at my maps I consistantly had Obama ahead narrowly until the financial crisis occurred. It was touch and go for him during the Rep Convention, but It was clear in September after the market crash, credit crisis, bailout, mortgage mess, etc... that Obama would have a very healthy win because the issue went 100% to the economy.

I don't personally like Obama. I don't care for his inner circle either, though I DO like Joe Biden. But, I'm willing to give him a chance. It will be refreshing to listen to a president that can actually use the English language correctly.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 22:40:53
I think that is what a lot of this election boiled down to. People wanted a President they could believe in again. The machine candidates failed and the message of optimism and change carried the day. I think Obama won in the end because he inspires his followers to vote more than McCain inspires his own.

I know a few Republicans that didn't even bother voting on election day here. Of course, they probably all figured McC would easily carry Indiana.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-09 @ 08:20:40
Uh, LR, if I read this all correctly, it was the REPUBLICANS who put up Prop 8, and Palin is for a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage, and yet you were a strong McCain supporter.

So, if you wished to cut off your own leg, that was your problem, and you should not be blaming others for it. Had you stuck with the DEM platform instead of getting so caught up in personalities, had you actually listened to Hillary Clinton when she more than wholeheartedly endorsed Obama and went on the trail for him SEVENTY times, then perhaps the pain of Prop 8 would be different.

But I find it unbelievably hypocritical that a gay man was willing to support a party that is OPENLY hostile to his orientation.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-09 @ 08:22:00
"It will be refreshing to listen to a president that can actually use the English language correctly. "

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 By: colin (R-ON) 2008-11-09 @ 09:28:09
Bonn and to all others...we have hashed this out once before. Please don't insult mine and others intelligence by saying that we are all one issue voters. There are many policies that are important to me as a human being, and one does not trump the other(s). I am a much more complex human being than just "I am gay". So, yes, I am gay, and yes, I would have voted for McCain had I been able to. As LR stated above, the Republican community in California was actually much more open and friendly to Prop 8 than most base Democrat groups were, ie. African Americans. Speaking of unbelievably hypocritical! Ignorant people will never understand...I have begun to accept this conclusion...and I am NOT referring to African Americans...prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-09 @ 13:13:34
Bonn-I form my own opinions and although I support Hillary she does not own my opinion. I would have done it all again very proudly I carry the fundamental belief that Obama should not be where he is.So if somehow I supported Obama the pain of the loss would be different?? Oh please! detail that because I truly want to hear that. Truly Humorous. Would I feel any less of a second class citizen like the bottom of the earth.

What I want to hear is how by voting for "change" and the historic barrier of an african american taking the white house calms the pain and anger of losing a fundamental right. I want to hear how voting for Obama a candidate who African Americans and Latinos swarmed the polls to vote for, yet voted against equality for ALL Californians. Somehow Im suppose to feel greatful we have come so far, No Bonn Sorry I dont. I would have felt the same no matter how I voted presidentially. Some of my friends have voted for Obama and yet feel the same loss just like we are overlooked second class citizens. They actually feel worse because its like they did what they felt is their part for equality and yet was bitch slapped by the same people they helped break that barrier African Americans and to a lesser extent Latino's.I certaintly dont expect Obama to do a damn thing to change that. He is a gifted skilled POLITICIAN and knows better then to take on the risk of helping the gay community.

So again going back to what I wrote in my above statements, and because you are such a gifted genius in polling maybe you should pour over those election returns of where the democratic ticket trounced Mc Cain and yet the YES vote was somehow strong. "Democratic" precincts where Yes won overwhelmingly. Republican precincts where it was unexpectly close. We carried a majority of white voters who tend to lean republican. We again LOST african americans who were energized by your messiah.

The real truth is no matter which presidential candidate had been elected none would have done a damn thing for or against the movement. None would have taken us on because we are a risk politically and now apparently for the moment we are again second class citizens in California.

So I dont need a straight man residing in Germany to spell that out for me. Im on the ground here in California I know whats going on and I have reviewed the election returns and the exit polls.

Last Edit: 2008-11-09 @ 13:22:32
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-09 @ 13:27:37
Colin-Thanks for the comments my friend and I am with you in our disappointment in the loss of Mc Cain-Palin. As far as Prop 8 is concerned as I wrote above all one has to do is review the precincts where YES won and how it won in parts of inner city Los Angeles and suburban Los Angeles where Obama trounced Mc Cain and registration is 3 sometimes 4 to 1 Democratic. All one has to do is read the post political stories being written of how this initiative was inacted due to the support of minorities. The same minorities who know all too well whats its like to live with discrimination. I know you get it Colin!

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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-09 @ 18:00:02
Minorities are downscale and less educated and more religious and therefore not as open to gays as upscale educated secular people. That's a sociological fact and there is nothing we can do about it.
Now, with Schwazenegger favoring Prop 8, I think you can still argue the conservative Republican in "inner CA" voted for the Prop. Maybe some upscale social liberal Republicans didn't. That's highly probable and they should be numerous in CA. The issue was split around social conservative social liberal lines, which does blur the pure party line thing.

And Liberalrocks, I happen to be a white male middle-class heterosexual so I can't tell you I know how you feel, but I certainly feel for all Californian gays and gays who thought of coming to your state to live with equal rights. There is no excuse for this constitutional amendment and frankly I think a McCain/No voter and an Obama/Yes voter are not only paradoxes (though I know noone is a one-issue voter) -I just couldn't decide who I'm closer to.

Good luck with your legal fight. I hope you win.

Btw, I told you about the Republican base. You might like the ideas but the people won't like you. Politics is a world where tolerance is low. Just look at how we split on the only issue of the Democratic candidate's name, called ourselves names for months and eventually lost your support not only for Obama but for the party.

I wish you luck, and I hope you will see the good in Obama one day, if indeed he is up to the expectations. He has an enormous weight on his shoulders, the kind of which none has had since Harry Truman, and he cannot afford to disappoint a nation which turned to him as its last hope. Obama has no middle road: either he carves himself a place in history next to FDR and Harry Truman or he goes down in the books as an inexperienced man who mishandled a crisis which overwhelmed him -in short, as you put it, a second Carter. Frankly I don't know.
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-09 @ 18:19:26
"But I find it unbelievably hypocritical that a gay man was willing to support a party that is OPENLY hostile to his orientation.

Fascinating." -bonn

Yes, it is fascinating, but some people just aren't too bright.

I totally get that a gay person can be fiscally conservative. Though I strongly disagree, its his or her right and mind. If a gay person doesn't like the democratic positions on fiscal issues, and doesn't want to vote for Democrats because of it, that is completely respectful, but to turn around and to stick up for a party which denies your humanity, your basic rights as living being, and claims you are a beacon of sin, and claims that you chose your lifestyle, which you know yourself is untrue, is sickening. Its not just that they say you shouldn't have basic rights, its that they claim the way you were born was sinful, when you aren't hurting anyone else. And their attitude breeds intolerance, misinformation, hatred, lies and encourages the destruction of science, reason and evidence and human good will.

So if you don't want to vote Democratic, fine. Vote third party, don't vote, or speak out openly against the GOP and their hatred. And don't bash someone else with the courage and the balls to do so. Write the GOP, tell them what they are doing is wrong and don't stand down. But, alas, there is something telling about a party that harbors members who are so hateful on such an issue, and who think such a way on such an issue for this kind of thinking isn't in a vaccum, but rather, it denotes a flaw in ones world view and a flaw in logic. 90% of people who are anti gay are thus so because (or at least they use this as an excuse for their fears) of religion. They claim the bible says being gay is wrong (even though it is only mention once in the bible, and many many many minor things which they over look are mentioned far more often)
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-09 @ 18:29:27
Its a fact that the black community is very socially conservative and religious. As I stated before, they only vote Democratic due to economic issues. In general they have little in common with Dems culturally. The same applies to the Latino community, but it was apparent from Exit Polling in CA the bulk of the Oppostion to Gay Marriage (Yes on 8) came from blacks, and evangelicals. Ironic that those most blindly devoted to the polar opposites (Palin and Obama) had one thing in common: Opposition to Gay Marriage. Actually, What is Incredibly hypocritical is that certain people felt they deserved or were owed an Obama presidency, yet didn't want to return any favors in support or help of fellow "Democrats" who were eager to support Mr. Obama. Again the Dems have become so "tolerant" that they are becoming "intolerant."

I believe it was actually out of state money and people, especially those associated with the Mormon church that were instrumental in Prop. 8. Governor Schwarzenegger and the GOP mayor of San Diego were against Prop. 8. John McCain does NOT support a constitutional ammendment banning gay marriage even though the bulk of his party does, including Palin.

Why should Liberalrocks have had to listen to Hillary Clinton. Does anyone actually listen to Hillary Clinton anymore? lol... Conservatives hate her. Liberals hate her. I can't even stand to listen to her anymore. "We must elect Barack Obama our President." blah, blah, blah... Okay Hillary, no one is paying attention to you. Your party ditched you and your about as popular as Joe Lieberman! You've now allowed yourself to be walked over by two men, just to save your political ambitions. You wont stand up for your voters. Youre a doormat!

Last Edit: 2008-11-09 @ 18:35:51
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 By: FiveSenses99 (--MO) 2008-11-09 @ 19:19:08
I wouldn't say the black community is "socially conservative" though I will agree as a whole they are with the gay issue. But with abortion, freedoms of speech, with rap artists etc they are hardly socially conservative...

But again, it all boils down that RELIGION.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-09 @ 23:17:49
Republicans turned out in Indiana, but many of them split their tickets - Obama, and Mitch Daniels for Governor. Daniels won a resounding victory.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-09 @ 23:29:54
"upscale social liberal Republicans" in California? Not a huge contingent.

Continue playing the victim with the "Clinton is a doormat" and "Not to rehash electability" talk, if you wish.
Hillary herself moved on long ago, as has been noted made 70 campaign appearance for Obama, has been consulted extensively by the transition team, and will likely play any role she chooses in the administration.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-10 @ 02:34:38
Too bad they didnt fully vet her EVER for vice president.

Then ofcourse releasing Bidens name as Vice President at 3 am was truly priceless.

No I agree with Doniki Clinton is a doormat and while I still admire her strength I too feel she has allowed herself to be used in order to save her reputation politically. Its so apparent she is not doing it out of her own will. I have lost some respect for her. I will always admire her but just feel bad for the way things had to turn out.

Last Edit: 2008-11-10 @ 02:35:58
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-10 @ 02:38:48
The same holds true for Bill Clinton. The Clintons and the Obama's will never have any love between them The Clintons simply want to be on the right side of history. Obama would have won with or without them the fact that they campaigned for him (more so Hillary) shows how they have postioned themselves for the history books rather then out of their own inner will. Just another day in politics.prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-10 @ 10:23:02
Im not playing the victim. Im just stating the facts. I simply don't care anymore. That said, if she had the strength of character, I thought she did, she would have told the Democrats to go to hell, like Lieberman did. But, its her choice to support Obama, to save her political career, so the liberals in the Dem party dont boot her out the way they did Joe Lieberman. At least Joe Lieberman stands his ground, despite was is "popular" or "trendy" at the time.

I'm just calling it as I see it! I don't feel any allegiance to either party and don't really care. I didn't even vote. But it is hard to ignore the reality that is staring at you in the face!

Last Edit: 2008-11-10 @ 10:24:06
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-10 @ 10:51:07
She stated on numerous occasions, probably the bulk of those 70 campaign appearances, that Obama represnted to positions she herself had fought for her whole life. (She reamins a heroine amonst liberal, after all). To claim that she did this out of pure political expediency is ignoring this reality, IMHO. There are those who are able to value principles before personalities. While I know it was not easy for you, Doni, it appears to me that you, like Hillary, are one of those that have been able to do so.prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-10 @ 11:24:24
@wingindy- My point is that I don't care. It was Hillary's choice. I don't particularly agree, but she did what she had to, as she did in the 1990's for her husband. It just a very sad commentary on the woman, IMO. I just don't have much respect for either party anymore and I don't feel represented by either party anymore and I didn't feel like voting for the lesser of two evils once again. I like Mr. McCain (on his own) and I could have voted for Mr. McCain, but quite frankly Palin scares me and it is very apparent that the McCain I recall from 2000 and 2004 isn't the one that emerged in 2008. At the same time I could have voted for Obama since I really have become a fan of Joe Biden, but I don't particularly like Mr. Obama.

I'm more than willing to give Mr. Obama a chance and I will consider him in 2012. In fact, I'm encouraged by his promise to lift Bush's ban on expanding stem cell research. There is a lot of work that is done in Columbus at OSU and in Cleveland at the Cleveland Clinic regarding research with stem cells and I think it would be a boost to Ohio to have access to more stem cell lines. I hope Obama acts swiftly, via executive power, to undo what he can from the Bush administration.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-11 @ 05:22:36
As a gay person I would not vote for my enemies & that = the Republican party.
I am sick & tired of their wedge politics.
This is another reason why they lost.
People are sick of the partisanship, the ugly commentary on the right.
Gay people can vote Republican, I think it's weird, but it's their right.
We are all more than 1 issue people but at the end of the day we would have no rights if it was up to the Republicans/& or their base, so for me that trumps economics, religion, conservatism any day as it is a threat to me as an individual to exist.
I don't want to live in a 1950's world where I have to hide who I am, be married unhappily & have 2 kids, & a dog, & then it's all peachy.
No thanks.
LR how do you explain now die hard Republican Arkansas with their much stronger vote against Gay adoption?
& the stronger result against us in more Republican Florida?
Obviously there are some Republicans that support us, not much, but some, & yes unfortunately there are Democrats who are against us.
Bottom line is we - Gay & Lesbian people are the last truely discriminated agianst minority.
I do hope Obama will bring about change for us.
I hope that the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy for the military is scrapped, this for me is more important than the marriage issue to begin with.
In the question of marriage, we should be asking for Civil Unions to be recognised, this should be the bare minimum.

Last Edit: 2008-11-11 @ 05:41:23
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-11 @ 05:26:35
Hillary was fantastic, a true sport, which can't be said from some of her die hard supporters.
She has done more than any other Primary candidate (probably combined) for the Presidential candidate in history.
I hope Obama gives her a cabinet position if she wants it, she would be great in Health obviously.
Clinton is no doormat how rude.
I'm offended.
She has held her position in the Democratic party, & will continue to be a strong influence as she sees fit in the years to come.

Last Edit: 2008-11-11 @ 05:30:48
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-11 @ 05:29:18
Doniki I think you'll find Liebermen went feral after he was disendorsed for the Democrats by the Connecticut party.
If it was on principal than it was on his unwaivering pro Iraq war stance.
PS did you end up voting, I'd love to know how your vote went.

Last Edit: 2008-11-11 @ 05:50:39
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-11 @ 10:26:08
@demboy- I was offended by a lot of things in this election... lol... To be completely honest, the fact is that we are seeing a repeat of 1998 in 2008 regarding Hillary Clinton. She has sacrificed herself and her integrity for yet another man. The difference this time is that in the process 18 million voters weren't heard, though I fully understand Mr. Obama's ego had no intention of giving us any representation. I absolutely refuse to defend the Republican party, though I still respect John McCain. At the same time, I have tried my damndest to defend the Democratic party over the past 8 years and I have tried my damndest to defend Hillary Clinton over the past 2 years, but I can no longer defend the indefensible.

I don't think I'm being rude in my observation. Its simply my opinion. Opinions are just opinions. They are not facts. I still like her positions on certain issues, including healthcare, but I don't admire the woman the way I did a few months ago. I will tell you though if you want to see RUDE, you should log onto dailykos, swingstateproject, and other liberal websites? Who is Public Enemy Number 1? Not Bush and Cheney! Public Enemy number 1 for liberals is Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Joe Lieberman!!! The true left wing goes beyond "rude." They go right pure HATE!!! I've never seen such a group of angry and hateful people. I thought evangelicals were bad in 2004. Liberals are worse.

Also, I didn't even bother to go vote. The new Dem Congressman in my district, John Boccieri, whom I really do like and wanted to see win, was well ahead or I might have reconsidered. If the left wing wanted to elect Obama they didn't need my vote and I'm not going to sacrifice my values to vote for Sarah Palin. I honestly didn't care who won. It was a fascinating race to watch, but I think the outcome was a foregone conclusion since September. Again, I just didn't care. I'm fine either way. I'm willing to give Obama a chance, just as I was willing to give Bush a chance in 2000.

Last Edit: 2008-11-11 @ 10:28:47
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-11 @ 10:45:42
I read kos, and see no hatred for the Clintons. Lieberman yes, I grant you that. Certainly kossacks and others, on all sides, went over the line during both the primaries and general election. Thankfully the Obama campaign consistently rejected divisive politics, as does the transition team. Most now recognize the incredible service Clinton performed, not only in her post-primary campaigning, but in staying in and keeping the Democratic race high profile into May. Obama WOULD NOT have won Indiana OR North Carolina had those states not had the competitive late primaries.

Olberman had a good opinion piece on Prop. 8 yesterday. While I never was opposed to gay marriage, as a straight male I have to admit I was a bit apathetic on the issue, and saw civil unions as a reasonable alternative. Olberman's commentary made me give more thought to the issue, and see the ugliness of the anti-gay marriage movement. I'm confident that in time this will be overturned, perhaps sooner, by the Courts, rather than later.
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 By: Liberallover (D-NY) 2008-11-11 @ 21:40:47
Agreed, Demboy.

Please folks, stop being offended for Hillary. No one's ego got in the way, someone came out on top with more delegates and WON the primary. That's how it works. (That said I'm quite happy I get to keep my liberal senator AND get my first liberal president- in my lifetime)

And yes, there is a groundswell everywhere from New York to California to Utah against the Christian Right. Gays will not be second class citizens by 2012.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-11 @ 23:01:31

Prop 8 Myths
Writes Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee:

Last week, however, 10 percent of voters were African American while 18 percent were Latino, and applying exit poll data to that extra turnout reveals that the pro-Obama surge among those two groups gave Proposition 8 an extra 500,000-plus votes, slightly more than the measure's margin of victory.

To put it another way, had Obama not been so popular and had voter turnout been more traditional – meaning the proportion of white voters had been higher – chances are fairly strong that Proposition 8 would have failed.
Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin.

Furthermore, it would be premature to say that new Latino and black voters were responsible for Prop 8's passage. Latinos aged 18-29 (not strictly the same as 'new' voters, but the closest available proxy) voted against Prop 8 by a 59-41 margin. These figures are not available for young black voters, but it would surprise me if their votes weren't fairly close to the 50-50 mark.

At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial one. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. It appears that the generational splits may be larger within minority communities than among whites, although the data on this is sketchy.

The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that -- and there's no polite way to put this -- the older voters aren't going to be around for all that much longer, and they'll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era. Everyone knew going in that Prop 8 was going to be a photo finish -- California might be just progressive enough and 2008 might be just soon enough for the voters to affirm marriage equity. Or, it might fall just short, which is what happened. But two or four or six or eight years from now, it will get across the finish line.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-12 @ 00:40:07
I choose not to ignore the fact that over 70 % of African Americans and well over 50% of all latinos voted Yes on the measure. While a majority of white voters voted against it.(including 20% of republicans) Im sorry choice sugar coated wording is NOT going to change the fact that minorities victims of discrimination themselves voted to attach it to a legal document on grounds of morality.

No few paragraphs beautifully worded is going to change that for me a gay second class citizen in this county.

Thanks for playing! Wingindy, Now go back to your first class superior heterosexual lifestyle.

Last Edit: 2008-11-12 @ 00:44:53
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-11-12 @ 00:42:45
Oh and Liberallover-Ill stay offended for Hillary and the sham of a democratic primary process. Someone needs to takes offense as Hillary has allowed herself to become a doormat in this entire process.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 04:30:08

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing update):

The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:

Obama: 52.77%


Other: 2%

As of 11/12, the PV and percentages:

Obama: 52.62% (66,115,514)

McCain: 46.05% (57,859,168)

Nader: 0.54% (679,465)

Barr: 0.40% (500,045)

Baldwin: 0.14% (180,864)

Other: 0.25% (320,071)

Current PV total: 125,655,127

real vote margin: +8,256,346

Margin: Obama +6.57

PV total 2004: 122,293,548

Difference to 2004: +3,415,579

Deviation from my projection:

Obama: -0.16%

McCain. +0.82%

Other: -0.67%

Tendency: rising for Obama.

I missed McCain's percentage. But am only 0.16% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.70%.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 05:05:06
OY!!!! OY!!!! OY!!!!!

I am not 100% sure how many more votes are out there to count, but assuming that a number of states use the 10 day rule to count absentee ballots or military ballots, spread over 50 state plus DC, I can imagine that easily 800,000-900,000 ballots are still yet to be tabulated. That would average to 17,647 per "state". Wait and see. But soon we will have the official results and the whole world will know.

But I just did blitzmath in my head and came to a startling conclusion, based on the current PV total of 66,115,514 for Obama. If Barack Obama gets just 484,486 of those remaining votes to be tabulated, then his vote tally comes to:

66,600,000 votes

Those who know the Book of Revelations out of the Christian Bible (the final book, called "Die Offenbarung Johannes" in german) know immediately what these first three digits have been interpreted to mean. I can see and "hear" the propaganda for the extreme-right and the religious right already revving up.

Mark my words: there will be op-eds and write ups about this in certain circles, as soon as the final vote comes in, for I think that Obama will come it at either just below or just above 66.6 million votes.

My statistical response as a thinking american: fascinating.

My response as a jew: OY!

When the right-wing press kicks into overdrive about this, just remember who reported it first: good old, mild mannered Bonncaruso.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-12 @ 06:52:14
I don't think you can blame just minorities for prop 8.
It's disappointing at their level of support, but there was obviously plenty to go round.
Hang in there don't despair.
We've been through worse & continue to survive & thrive as a Gay & Lesbian community.

Hillary is no doormat.
She never has been & never will be.
She will continue to be the great Senator from New York.
Obama has appreciated her unprecedented help, & I am certain her strength in the Democratic party will continue in whatever form she sees fit.
She has come out of this process still being held in great esteem by most in the Democratic party & beyond.

Would be great to see her in health, or something like Ambassador to the UN.
Just my opinion.
But again she's doing fine in the Senate.
It's not like it's a crap job to begin with.

Anyway Hillary has already created her own history in this campaign, & it's nothing to be ashamed of - most votes for runner up, running strong as a Woman etc.

Go Hillary!

Last Edit: 2008-11-12 @ 06:55:11
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 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-15 @ 13:29:11
Go Hillary!

Liberalrocks is now Indi-rocks by popular demand!

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-15 @ 15:31:39
Moose is the new Black!

Last Edit: 2008-11-15 @ 15:32:17
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-17 @ 16:31:47
Häääääähhh?prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-18 @ 11:01:45
Moose is the new Black! Yes it is!

It's a play on Tina Fey's "Bitch is the New Black." Since you can't turn on the television and be inundated with Obama or caribou barbie, the right-wing moose hunter/moose chili maker up in Alaska, I've declared "Moose is the New Black!"
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-18 @ 11:09:27
"Oh yea, ya see my dad goes out and hunts the moose. I hunt the caribou cuz the moose is too big and you don't want to mess with a big mother moose protectin' her youngins. So my dad kills the moose and has it cut up and we freeze it. A moose can feed the entire family thru the winter, yes it can. Now, I just go in the freezer get a hunka meat and cut it up real fine and put it in my moose chili. Todd and the kids love my moose chili."

AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.......I'm sick and tired of hearing about Moose!!! Someone shut her up!!!
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-18 @ 11:48:17

Sometimes there are advantages to not getting american TV, you know...
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 30/35 17/35 47/70 67.1% pie 5 0 334T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 25/36 58/72 80.6% pie 3 2 56T372
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 14 0 369T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 17/34 47/68 69.1% pie 7 0 213T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 6/12 15/24 62.5% pie 5 0 47T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 60 0 82T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 17/36 46/72 63.9% pie 53 0 123T300
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 97 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 48 0 40T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 12 0 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 44/52 26/52 70/104 67.3% pie 67 - 5T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 71 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 44 5 106T312
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 53 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 15/33 46/66 69.7% pie 4 24 227T407
P 2008 Governor 8/11 5/11 13/22 59.1% pie 2 17 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 49/52 18/52 67/104 64.4% pie 24 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 33/49 16/49 49/98 50.0% pie 7 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 595/672 378/672 973/1344 72.4% pie

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