Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:83

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	326
Rep	212
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	248
Rep	149
Ind	0
Tos	141

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	0	+74	0	0	0	20	2	252	+74
Rep	0	0	0	-7	0	-74	24	3	212	-74
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
77	49	23	4	1

Analysis

My final prediction based on Bonn Caruso's polls and stats, pundits and my gut feelings.

Still I picked Ohio for Kerry last time and was wrong...

Senate prediction 58-42
MN stays Rep and gains in Alaska, NM, CO, OR, VA, NC and NH
runoff for Chambliss

House prediction 262-173

Governorships +- = zero= win in Missouri balanced by loss in NC or WA

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-03 @ 09:44:45
Watch the NE 2nd for a stray electoral vote possibility for Obama Still think Ohio and NC might go for McCain thanks for all for a nice site!

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-03 @ 16:07:51
Dnul, if you don't want to get trounced on the percentages you should de-pinkify and de-skybluify this map... Otherwise a very possible scenario. Good job. I think FL is for Obama though.

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-03 @ 18:00:29
If Obama takes NC, then FL won't be too far behind. I give FL to Obama before I would NC - given FL's recent electorla history. I think you are right on the Senate. 4 Nov 08 will not be a good day for the GOP.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-04 @ 12:28:48
Early voting in central MN very heavy in my precinct which is 75% Catholic, 95% Male (all male college campus) and 80% under 25... 2004 I was 7th to vote, same time this year 38th...15% had voted in first 1.5 hours.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 14:57:19
de-pinkify and de-skybluify - very nice adjectives. While you're at it, de-skybluify and pinkify Indiana. :P Concerned for voting irregularities in VA & PA - on top of predicted rain. Also problems in Florida, Ohio, & Colorado. See DemConvWatch for details. Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 14:59:39

By: colin (I-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 15:51:47
there is an all-male college there dnul? whereabouts are you located? =)

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 16:10:21
Interested in young males? Wing, I think the rain might actually favor Democrats since it might preserve the early voting advantage... And yes, there will be irregularities. Let's hope the win is big enough for it not to matter.

By: colin (I-ON) 2008-11-04 @ 16:55:17
lol...actually no...usually the same age or older...but I know many who would be...lol

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-08 @ 15:56:31
St. John's University in a cooperative educational arrangement with the College fo St. benedict's (both Catholic one male one female one educational system two campuses) The men voted 6 to 4 for Obama and the women more so. And the same two campuses voted for Coleman. Located in Stearns county 75 northwest of Minneapolis on I94. Total students at each school 2000 for total of 4000. Our county Stearns voted for Tinklenberg over bachmann but to no avail.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-11 @ 07:32:03
Update on the COleman recount which is scheduled to begin soon...the official tallies are due today which is why the number kept shrinking for Coleman. There were undercounts for senate race from Presidential totals as is the case in all states...however 2/3 of the undercount is in Democratic counties...we will see when the handcount looks at the ballots if Franken wins...please note that the machines do not catch all the marks people make if they fail to completely fill in the dots. At least we keep a paper trail. My estimate is Franken wins the recount round and Coleman enters the court phase, with Franken ahead by 500 votes...in the end the senate decides who sits in its own body.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-11 @ 15:20:13
Er... Can the Senate decide who is elected? In that case I should think it will be Franken. It's a difficult call, even with official results, because the early edge is Coleman's and the trend is Franken's. I was sad to see Bachmann reelected. That woman is an extreme, bigoted nuthead. She doesn't belong in her office.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-18 @ 14:49:17
The US Senate is the final arbitor of who sits in its chambers...so in a dispute they pick the senator-put seldom happens that way. Most commentator in MN expecting a narrow Franken victory from machine errors corrected by paper trail counted by neutral observers with witnesses ALL OPEN TO PUBLIC_ANYONE! then the court phase...

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-12-18 @ 19:28:38
A Minnesota update for anyone reading or watching...Coleman lead down to 5 and tomorrow Franken will take the lead by the canvassing board counting the ballots. The board is made up of a majority of judges appointed by Republican governors - and that is without counting contested absentee ballots which will tend to favor Franken...there are about 1600 of them...so I give Franken(stein) still do not like him....a 3/4 chance of becoming another senator from MN. Merry Christmas, Happy Chunakah and an Enjoyable Kwansa to all!

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-22 @ 17:02:01
So we either get two or no points at all for a bleeping 5 votes? Something like 0.0002% of the vote? Yeah that's the only thing I'm concerned about because no offense dnul but Coleman or Franken the impact on the national scale is at best the hairstyle. I'm more Coleman on that one, btw. Old-fashioned stuff. Speaking of holidays, what's this war-on-Christmas stuff? In secular agnostic France we have Christmas holidays and we say Merry Christmas even when we're atheists and nobody gives a sh*t in hell about religious controversies.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-12-24 @ 06:59:29
After the counting of contested ballots Franken +250 and after reenteriing the votes for which challenges were withdrawn it is Franken +48 1600 absentee ballots to be counted or not Looks like Franken at this point! And not much impact except to keep 2008 election cycle going into 2009

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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