Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:12

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	382
Rep	156
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	333
Rep	132
Ind	0
Tos	73

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+11	0	+130	0	0	0	20	2	252	+130
Rep	0	0	0	-11	0	-130	20	3	156	-130
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
92	47	40	4	1

Analysis

Time to get serious here, in the interest of trying to maximize my performance...

No state is going only 30% for either candidate...so I moved any state which was previously at 30% to 40 or 50% because at this point what is the difference between trying to indicate that a state is LEANING to one candidate of being STRONG for that candidate. There is no viable 3rd party candidate that will get an appreciable amount of votes to cause <30%...but <40% is a possibility in a couple states like Missouri (the candidate who wins MO either wins barely over 50% or just under 50%) or Montana (where Ron Paul should get a good share of the vote).

North Carolina isn't going +40%, so I moved that to 50% for the respective party choice in those states.
Ditto for Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, South Dakota, and Florida.

Indiana I switched over the GOP because I really haven't seen the polling to indicate that Obama has a legitimate shot of victory here. Same for North Dakota.

Montana I kept in the red (for the DEMs) because of the realistic shot that Ron Paul has in pulling votes away from McCain.

Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are in the democratic bag because of the Latino vote.

Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire were all capitulated by McCain...no brainer to have them in the DEM column.

Virginia has not polled positively for McCain since the beginning of October. Its not going to the GOP.

Georgia polls are too close to ignore the early voting totals. Polls don't account for young voters very well, so they may have a huge impact here. Thus I left it in the DEM column.

Missouri routinely goes the way of the election...and considering I have Obama winning it was a no-brainer to leave it in the DEM column.

Arizona is not going to Obama so I pushed that back up to <50% GOP.

Not a single positive poll for McCain in Pennsylvania since April...no chance it goes to McCain, sorry republicans.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	29/56	80/112	71.4%	1	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%	1	0	120	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	1	0	67	T	279
2014 Senate	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	2	167	288	T	382
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	6	4	77	T	760
2012 Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	7	1	56	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	22/37	56/74	75.7%	10	2	116	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	21/37	54/74	73.0%	1	12	130	T	312
2008 President	51/56	41/56	92/112	82.1%	12	0	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	6	1	117	T	407
Aggregate Predictions	356/390	237/390	593/780	76.0%

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