PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Chica Of Light (I-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:8

Prediction Map
Chica Of Light MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Chica Of Light MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem173
 
Rep365
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem97
 
Rep270
 
Ind0
 
Tos171
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+7-7-1-86131166-79
Rep+7+1+86-10-7303279+79
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
54361233
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Latest national EARLY VOTER BREAKDOWN (those that have already voted) as of 11/3/08: (Remember that this is a form of EXIT POLLING)


DIAGEO/HOTLINE (10/31/11/2)
Obama 51% (+5)
McCain 46%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_110308.htm


ABC/WASH. POST (10/31-11/2)
Obama 58% (+18)
McCain 40%

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6169954&page=1


NBC/WALL STREET JOURNAL (11/1-11/2)
Obama 51% (+8)
McCain 43%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081103_NBC-WSJ_Poll.pdf


FOX NEWS (11/1-11/2)
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 47%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110308_poll.pdf


MEAN: OBAMA +8

LAST WEEK'S MEAN: OBAMA +15.75%

TREND: To McCain!


In all four sources, Obama LEADS--as expected--but the variation is enormous. That being stated, the mean value of Obama's victory (the margin) is +8% (much lower than it was a week ago; Republicans are beginning to vote in greater numbers). Now this is out of an early voter pool that consist of a plurality of Democrats beating out the Republicans by double-digit margins.

As of 11/03, 22.9% of voters (as of 2004 figures) have voted, meaning AT LEAST a remaining 76.1% of voters have yet to do so, and it's widely expected that Republicans will outnumber Democrats on the final remaining election day--11/04--as they often do (and remember that Republicans now have the larger voting pool that has yet to vote on Election Day; the eligible Democratic voting pool is reduced). Also, the Exit Poll voting trend is TO MCCAIN--so McCain is bound to gain.

Now, remember that Democrats are often overpolled in these things (in 2004 they overpolled John Kerry by 5.5%). If the overpolling margin for Kerry in 2004 (+5.5%) holds true this year, Obama's 8% margin of victory will be reduced to 2.5% on Election Day--that's if voters vote the way they have in the last few weeks (we would have to ignore the voting trend). But that seems unlikely, as Republicans have had a history of outvoting the Democrats on Election Day! Assuming voters do however, Obama will win by a 2.5-point margin.

Now there's another factor that you have to incorporate into the these numbers, we're assuming the 2004 overpolling of Kerry is consistent--+5.5%. If it turns out to be greater for Obama this year--let's say 8%--McCain will win the popular vote without having to worry about how voters vote on Election Night (assuming they don't begin to trend toward Obama). If Obama underpolls Kerry's value--HE WINS!

But Exit polling is expected to be off this year, due to this year's unique race, so no one can be certain of anything.

And remember another thing: no polster ever doubts his work! (Funny, as this year they're all over the place!) . . . and then There's this: All respondents in Exit Polls VOLUNTEER their answers (what's actually being measured is the voting preference of those willing to express how they voted--that's the only 100% certainty in EXIT POLLING!)

(I'm betting Obama's overpolling margin is much greater than Kerry's 5.5% in 2004!)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 02:35:05
Less than or Equal to 4% = Tossup Candidate.

Less than or Equal to 8% = Lean Candidate.

Greater than 8% = Strong Candidate.
prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 04:05:08
2008's Early Vote was 24.9% (as of the 2004 Total vote)--a 2.4% improvement!prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:30:23
My, my... there is terrific improvement toward Obama on that map... You still have a few hours for a complete comeback to reality...prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 04:37:27
*LOL.* We'll see, French. We'll see . . .prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:41:30
Indeed we will. People here in France aer incredulous at the idea America might elect a black man. They still have a kind of Middle Age / Far FAR West image of the USA... I've been telling them for day but they're just like you. Except they actually want Obama to win. :-)
If this map comes true, or even close, I shall renounce predicting America elections outcomes for, say, at least two years. LOL
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:42:23
Chica what is your prediction on Prop 8?prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 04:46:50
I'm predicting a narrow affirmation or rebuke. Though California is a "liberal" state, it still exhibits conservative tendencies. I'm guessing it narrowly passes.

French--you and everybody else! And if I'm wrong--(which, according to the polls, appears definite!)--I'm going to be *LOL* in that boat.

But we'll find out today.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 04:56:55
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-04 @ 04:48:22
Delusion isn't pretty, but if it allows you to get up in the morning and get through the day, then so be it. I wish you eight more years of continued mental health...prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 05:00:00
I really hope Prop 8 doesn't pass. Since we're predicting opposité results on the pres race, I guess I can also predict a narrow rebuke... Anyway.
And it's quite late in California, isn't it? Anyway I'll have to stay up all night :-(
The results come in between midnight and 6am over here... GMT+1.
prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 07:13:16
Well, I was looking online searching for political pundits that are predicting a McCain win today. Thus far I have found only one . . . Fred Barnes at Fox News! Everyone else--EVERY ONE ELSE!--is predicting an Obama landslide: something on the order of 300+ Electoral Votes!

I'm still holding out hope for John McCain. He truly is the better, more qualified, more practical candidate this year and Obama has basically surfed on a wave of anti-incumbent hate! He has no qualifications, except that he's perceived as the kewl, right-for-the-moment peacenik (though actually quite ambiguous) who's so far indicated nothing (except that he's not Bush), and has aims to increase taxes on America's wealthiest (which I don't have a problem with as long as he states more specifically what he means and how). (I am, however, not in favor of European-style socialism. Europeans are trying to get rid of it--we shouldn't be trying to adopt it!) (Oh yeah: and then there's his connection to bomb-plotting terrorist, William Ayers!)

I stand firmly behind John McCain, war-hero, Independent-minded American, who is by far one of the most nonpartisan, thoughtful, genuinely concerned members of Government! If he should lose today (which polls suggest he will harshly) I will go down with him--as I'd rather go down with somebody I look up to than win with somebody I know is a fraudulent opportunist!

John McCain: it's you and me both today! One a Republican and the other a newly converted Independent!

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 07:59:13
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 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 07:48:59
(P.S.: I'm not drinking the kool-aid.)

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 07:53:19
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 By: satyrday (I-MI) 2008-11-04 @ 07:56:45
Dixville Notch, NH hasn't gone Dem since 1968. They went 71% for Obama. That's just a small first sip of the Obama landslide that will happen today.prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 08:00:29
And in 1968 the Dem candidate LOST!prediction Map

 By: satyrday (I-MI) 2008-11-04 @ 08:15:54
My point is that traditionally solid Republican areas are and will turn to Obama in a big way.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 08:16:20
So what's a girl to do Chica?
Are you staying with the Dems?
Or going Rep too like LR?
Dixville Notch was great.
Different time, different candidate, & NH is staying Dem!
You can rub salt into my wound if I'm wrong.
:)

prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 08:33:08
Dem, I'm going Independent. Surely with all the success and support Obama has, he doesn't need a lil' young gal like me.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-04 @ 08:37:11
Yes he does!
Every vote counts Hon.
So who are you voting for then as an Independent?
If you don't mind me asking.
prediction Map

 By: Chica Of Light (I-CA) 2008-11-04 @ 08:49:47
THE WAR HERO!!!

COUNTRY FIRST!!!

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 08:59:18
prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-04 @ 11:13:47
Demboy says: "Every vote Counts" lol...

Yea, and you're into the ladies! ;) May I remind you of the election in 2000, the Dem primary in 2008... No, only the votes the extremes and special interests of each respective party want to count actually DO count. If every vote counted, Gore would have been president! If every vote counted, Hillary would have been the nominee! Sorry, I don't buy that arguement anymore.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 11:14:42
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 By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-11-04 @ 12:22:22
McCain 5% in CT results McCain 50-49 WOWprediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 13:40:34
I don't really get what that means, but 5% of precincts is NOTHING. If you take 5% of precinctsin a state, for instance in the South of Texas, you can get overwhelming majorities for a party which loses overall. Obama will win a landslide in Connecticut.prediction Map

 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-04 @ 16:03:49
You're either a dyke, a racist, or a Republican operative. I'm not buying that you're just completely nuts...prediction Map

 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-11-04 @ 17:03:48
Hum... amazing that you have poll results when nothing, not even exit polls, have been released. I guess you conducted your own survey Repub08 ;).prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-11-04 @ 17:11:55

vt says:
"You're either a dyke, a racist, or a Republican operative. I'm not buying that you're just completely nuts..."

Typical Obama campaign! Its the Obama doctrine- Youre with us or youre against us. Of course considering the source, not much good has come out of Texas lately.
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 By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2008-11-06 @ 11:32:39
Again, you people have no sense of humor. Nothing is so sacred that it cannot be the object of playful ridicule or derision. So lighten up, fascist. Further, Chica's pathological hatred of Obama is clearly fueled by something more than typical partisanship. This hatred is likely rooted in issues pertaining to sexual orientation or race. Just because you don't like what I'm saying, doesn't mean that it's not true. You shouldn't be such a prude regarding social issues. Anyway, I am done wasting my time with you. I suspect you may suffer from a case of French ancestry or some other incurable malady...

Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 11:33:24
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 By: satyrday (I-MI) 2008-11-06 @ 12:28:44
Wow, what a spanking.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 39/56 15/56 54/112 48.2% pie 8 0 1443T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 8/52 8/52 16/104 15.4% pie 1 - 211T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 9/49 6/49 15/98 15.3% pie 1 - 182T235
Aggregate Predictions 56/157 29/157 85/314 27.1% pie


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