Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:29

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	317
Rep	221
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	248
Rep	201
Ind	0
Tos	89

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	0	+65	0	0	0	20	2	252	+65
Rep	0	0	0	-7	0	-65	24	3	221	-65
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
91	47	38	4	2

Analysis

Final Map:

Obama 53%
McCain 45%
Nader/Barr 1%
Others 1%

It's been a long race. I've been looking at the polls everyday for at least 6 months now. I really hope McCain wins, but it likely won't happen. Based on Obama's lack of experience and associations of Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, etc. I can't trust him. History has it that Obama will win, but likely not by a landslide. Obama will get 337 electoral votes at the most. Ihe wins Florida and Indiana it will add up to 375. But I can't see it happening.

In order for McCain to win he'll have to make a huge upset in Pennsylvania. That's the #1 most important state. But he's losing in the polls by over 10%, so the west part of the state would have to have a huge turnout. Overall for McCain to win the polls must be wrong. That could happen for 2 reasons: Bradley Effect and undecided voters. However, a high turnout for African-American is expected so it can shift the election.

Florida:

Current polls show a pure toss-up. But I disagree. Jewish voters are skeptical. There will also be a high turnout for old people. It was definitely going to McCain before this last month. So I'm really confident it will go to McCain mostly because the southern part of the state aren't enthusiastic for Obama.

Ohio:

Always a pure toss-up. But Bush actually has a 37% approval rating (which is actually pretty high), so McCain has a pretty dedicated base. McCain has really put a lot of effort in the last week, so it most likely will go McCain.

Pennsylvania:

If any Kerry state changes, it will be this one. McCain must win this state to win. If not, he will lose. The West part is racist. The only area that will go to Obama is Philly. I think it will be a lot closer than what the polls say.

New Hampshire:

McCain has a strong base here, and Obama isn't that popular. The polls for the Democratic primary were totally wrong so anything can happen.

Colorado:

Obama has a strong base here. Not to mention, Bush didn't win by much. Also, even when McCain was winning in the polls he still wasn't getting close. So, it will most likely go to Obama.

North Carolina/Virginia:

African American turnout will decide these 2 states. The 2 haven't voted Republican in a while and there are alot of racism, so it will be close. Anyone's game.

Missouri/Nevada:

Both are bellwhethers so it will go to whoever wins. Missouri is too close in the polls. So if Obama wins, he will win this state by less than 1%.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-10-31 @ 21:14:32
thank you applemanmat, you have inspired me to redraw the map, your sense is very logical, if mccain wins the states the big 3 left is either colorado, or virginia? what happens if he doesnt get it hail mary for pennsylvania? i feel it but its one of those all outs thats got this election a real nail bighter because of the bradley effect.

By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 21:17:33
Nice map...minus MO.

By: applemanmat (L-VA) 2008-10-31 @ 21:32:16
If McCain doesn't get Pennsylvania, but wins all the other toss-ups, it will be a tie 269-269. McCain would have to pray hispanics don't turnout and win New Mexico or something.

By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-10-31 @ 21:37:56
I really do feel a possible Bradley Effect happening in PA the hard part is the demographics around Scranton and there love towards Joe Biden might shift it, that would be devestating.

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-10-31 @ 23:32:37
Nevada is trending strongly towards Obama in more recent polling. Even Arizona is getting too close for comfort for the McCain campaign. No sign that Pennsylvania is going to break its recent trend of voting Democratic in Presidential elections. I just can't see McCain pulling this one out absent something drastic happening. The Republicans would do well not to do damage to their political brand in these final days, by not going overboard on Obama. Take the loss gracefully.

By: applemanmat (L-VA) 2008-11-24 @ 18:34:03
I guess the polls weren't wrong after all. Oh well at least it will be more easy to predict next election. We now know that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire won't ever go Republican. Any state McCain got in this election is an automatic Republican state. As for the 2012 election, if Obama has low approval ratings than the Republican will obviously win all the close states in 2008. Romney 2012!!!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-25 @ 00:14:50
Automatic Republican?? Like Missouri?? How about against incumbent President Obama?

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-25 @ 04:00:44
When you're so low in the Electoral College, you try to be positive and think you can't get any lower...

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-25 @ 12:31:25
Franken/Coleman close close 210 votes separate them with 3000 challenged for mostly bogus reasons. This one will be the last race finished after the Georgia vote. We shall see.....

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	30/35	23/35	53/70	75.7%	1	4	224	T	305
2022 Governor	28/36	21/36	49/72	68.1%	1	4	241	T	272
2020 President	51/56	45/56	96/112	85.7%	12	7	130	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	8	7	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	10/11	21/22	95.5%	3	13	1	T	293
2018 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	1	3	246	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	25/36	56/72	77.8%	1	5	94	T	372
2016 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%	2	2	87	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	16/34	47/68	69.1%	2	2	213	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	1	2	25	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	17/36	51/72	70.8%	10	5	200	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	15/36	47/72	65.3%	7	11	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	17	17	T	153
2012 President	50/56	36/56	86/112	76.8%	31	2	591	T	760
2012 Senate	28/33	16/33	44/66	66.7%	21	2	211	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	11	1	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	14/52	49/104	47.1%	5	-	75	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	3	177	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	28	2	100	T	456
2010 Governor	36/37	28/37	64/74	86.5%	15	2	5	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	14	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	40/56	91/112	81.3%	29	4	200	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	12/33	44/66	66.7%	11	4	281	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	6	4	86	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	664/752	444/752	1108/1504	73.7%

Links

Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home