PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - rosin (I-DNK) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:2

Prediction Map
rosin MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
rosin MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep157
 
Ind0
 
Tos70
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93493743
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Just changed the percentages a little bit from the 1st map. I haven't flipped MO or NC - don't know if it's realistic but believe in that Obama could overperform. Else - let's just see what's gonna happen tonight (and - in my European time zone - tomorrow morning).


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-11-21 @ 11:36:37
Well.. with the the present results it looks as if my outcome prediction has been false in three "states" - MO, IN and NE-2, while I've missed the percentages these three times as well as 13 others - AK, ND, GA, NE, NE-1, KS, HI, OR, IA, FL, MD, NJ and CT. Total: 93/112. Not very bad - especially not on the state level - but not good either.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-22 @ 07:42:37
And with those races as close as they were, your outcome was indeed very plausible.prediction Map

 By: rosin (I-DNK) 2008-12-05 @ 10:10:29
Oh - I see that - according to Leip - Alaska has went under 60% for McCain. That makes it an extra point for me. 94/112.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 0 177T
P 2012 President 56/56 50/56 106/112 94.6% pie 1 0 1T
P 2010 Senate 36/37 23/37 59/74 79.7% pie 1 1 63T
P 2008 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 2 0 139T
Aggregate Predictions 177/185 133/185 310/370 83.8% pie


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