Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	338
Rep	200
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	273
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	91

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	0	+86	0	0	0	20	2	252	+86
Rep	0	0	0	-7	0	-86	24	3	200	-86
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
94	49	38	4	3

Analysis

Popular Vote estimates (allowing 1% for minor party candidates):

Alabama: 59-40 R

Alaska: 56-43 R

Arizona: 55-44 R
Arkansas: 55-44 R

California: 57-42 D

Colorado: 52-47 D

Connecticut: 56-43 D

Delaware: 56-43 D

DC: 90-9 D

Florida: 51-48 R

Georgia: 54-45 R

Hawaii: 63-36 D

Idaho: 62-37 R

Illinois: 59-40 D

Indiana: 52-47 R

Iowa: 56-43 D

Kansas: 57-42 R

Kentucky: 56-43 R

Louisiana: 55-44 R

Maine: 57-42 D

Maryland: 58-41 D

Massachusetts: 58-41 D

Michigan: 54-45 D

Minnesota: 54-45 D

Mississippi: 57-42 R

Missouri: 51-48 R

Montana: 53-46 R

Nebraska: 58-41 R

Nevada: 50-49 D

New Hampshire: 53-46 D

New Jersey: 56-43 D

New Mexico: 55-44 D

New York: 60-39 D

North Carolina: 52-47 R

North Dakota: 54-45 R

Ohio: 51-48 D

Oklahoma: 62-37 R

Oregon: 55-44 D

Pennsylvania: 53-46 D

Rhode Island: 61-38 D

Tennessee: 57-42 R

Texas: 56-43 R

Utah: 65-34 R

Vermont: 62-37 D

Virginia: 52-47 D

Washington: 55-44 D

West Virginia: 55-44 R

Wisconsin: 56-43 D

Wyoming: 60-39 R

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	/56	/56	/112	%					682
2020 Senate	/35	/35	/70	%					422
2020 Governor	/11	/11	/22	%					292
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	2	8	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	15	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	14	2	164	T	372
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	64	1	325	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	18/34	50/68	73.5%	15	0	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	6/12	15/24	62.5%	10	2	47	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	2	9	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	23/36	57/72	79.2%	11	1	82	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	10	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	1	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	40/56	94/112	83.9%	34	2	367	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	13	2	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	6	2	51	T	228
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	9	0	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	9	0	17	T	312
2008 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	13	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	4	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	4	1	27	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	20	1	65	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	19/36	54/72	75.0%	16	1	81	T	312
2004 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	35	3	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	609/652	405/652	1014/1304	77.8%

Links

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