Obama takes the Dem. nomination winning IA, NH, SC, on the way to building momentum that HRC is unable to stop. As independents and a fair number of GOP vote in the “open” Dem primaries and caucuses for Obama, his nomination becomes inevitable and his “electability” becomes apparent to the Dem establishment. They begin to abandon HRC and she “graciously” steps aside to stop intra party squabbling and bloodletting. Although she is divisive during the period she stays in, the damage is not permanent and her core supporters have nowhere to go and come over to Obama. Because HRC is not the Dem nominee, Bloomberg is satisfied enough to forgo a run.

On the GOP side, things remain very unsettled (very un-GOP) for a long while. The eventual winner is McCain. Faced with a very unhappy and large bloc of Huckabee supporters, essential to the GOP coalition, McCain is forced (against all instincts) to select Huckabee as his running mate. The GOP establishment fears a third party run by a “social values” candidate. In a “fundamental change” atmosphere this ticket is doomed from the start. McCain’s usual appeal to Independents is blunted by Obama’s emergence as their darling. McCain is further damaged by Huckabee who is “not ready for prime time” in a national election. With Huckabee on the ticket the GOP avoids the sure death of a “values” candidate third party run. Ron Paul, a true man of principle, tempted (for very different reasons) and flush with cash does not run, seeking instead to change the GOP from within. This will be a 2 party race with a maximum of 2% total going to 3rd parties.

Obama chooses Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia as VP. Webb agrees, bringing a strong military background, populist economic message, the state of Virginia and some neighbors (WV and NC) with him. In the tradition of 1980, the sour mood of the country coupled with an appealing change agent sweeps the opposition from the White House in a “Reaganesque landslide”.

Popular vote:
Obama-Webb (D) 54%
McCain-Huckabee (R) 44%
Others 2%
We will see. The fun begins in about 6 hours.

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Presidential Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Presidential Prediction Map