Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-23 Version:5

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	379
Rep	159
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	375
Rep	121
Ind	0
Tos	42

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+11	+1	+127	0	0	0	20	2	252	+127
Rep	0	0	0	-11	-1	-127	20	2	159	-127
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
89	49	31	5	4

Analysis

McCain now saying Obama is Bush III and he's always been against the guy he was hugging a month ago. I'd watch numbers for Barr and independents if far-right comes out at all.

GOP failed in bids to suppress vote in OH and IN, where new poll has Obama+10, vindicating early call.

One more screw up and a half dozen more states could flip. Maybe Palin can shoot a Mexican-American trying to vote early. Neither of them have a clue at this point and it is not reassuring.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2020 President	51/56	37/56	88/112	78.6%	2	168	480	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	1	331	101	T	423
2016 President	42/56	25/56	67/112	59.8%	2	26	597	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	15/34	45/68	66.2%	1	96	277	T	362
2012 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	2	1	508	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	16/33	48/66	72.7%	1	34	144	T	343
2010 Senate	26/37	16/37	42/74	56.8%	4	48	359	T	456
2008 President	54/56	35/56	89/112	79.5%	5	12	247	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	1	29	117	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	3	77	232	T	465
2004 President	46/56	24/56	70/112	62.5%	5	76	1629	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	426/485	263/485	689/970	71.0%

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