PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:183

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem349
 
Rep189
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem259
 
Rep142
 
Ind0
 
Tos137
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+80+97000202252+97
Rep000-80-97233189-97
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
94484042
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Barack Obama is elected the 44th and first African-American president of the U.S.

These states are close and are the one's I am most worried about calling: Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. One of these will probably be the closest state of the night. McCain has surged late in both Ohio and Florida. McCain cannot afford to lose either, and both campaigns have focused their last days on these states. I give them very tentatively to Obama. In Ohio, Obama may have enough of any early vote lead beat off a McCain late surge. Missouri is also hanging on a razor thin edge and could go either way. It's status as a bellwether will seriously tested and I give to Obama on the premise of it still being a bellwether. North Carolina remains close, but I believe McCain has shored it up at the last minute.

Even if McCain wins all these states he still loses and that is why I am confident of an Obama win. He has solid leads in all of the states won by Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004. Minnesota has tightened but Obama retains the edge. McCain's campaigning in Pennsylvania is for nothing; he's still behind. Furthermore, Obama has pulled away in Nevada, and has significant leads in Colorado and Virginia, and winning either of these two would put him over 270.

Obama has made significant inroads in very red states Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Georgia. They will be much closer than four years ago, but I expect McCain to prevail in all these states. Strong libertarian candidacies in Montana, and heavy black turnout in Georgia could make these states interesting.

At the end of the day: Obama had the better organization, a more effective message, and a political climate conducive to that message. McCain proved erratic in the last days. But in the larger scope, as I argued, this win was one long in the making. Only historians can decide the significance of this election, but I believe it will be looked back as being very significant.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:18:38
The First Returns are already in:

Dixville Notch goes for O

The hearty folks in the northern New Hampshire town have renewed their Election Day tradition, heading to the polls just after midnight.

The results: Obama 15, McCain 6.

And, folks, those are real votes not exit polls.

President Bush won the town in 2004.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:46:14
as did Dole in '96 & Bush I in '92.

Good analysis. I think Obama takes FL & OH by decent margins. MO, IN & MT are extremely tight.
prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 02:16:15
Apparently it's the first time a Democrat has won the town since 1968.prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:38:11
Hubert Humphrey isn't really our best candidate ever...
Are they actually ALLOWED to do that?
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie


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