PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - dmurphy1984 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-28 Version:3

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem273
 
Rep265
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem264
 
Rep184
 
Ind0
 
Tos90
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+30+21000202252+21
Rep000-30-21283265-21
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
81452943
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final Prediction....

Barack Obama-51.0%
John McCain-48.5%

Obama wins by a narrow margin. States showing as true tossups in the polls go to McCain as undecideds break for John McCain this election. But losses in CO, NM, IA, and PA do their damage.I do however expect the race in most states to be closer than most polls show.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 1 12 24T483
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T362
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T382
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T343
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T456
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T312
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 436/468 297/468 733/936 78.3% pie


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