Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:45

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	376
Rep	162
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	130
Ind	0
Tos	97

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+10	+1	+124	0	0	0	20	2	252	+124
Rep	0	0	0	-10	-1	-124	21	2	162	-124
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
101	50	41	5	5

Analysis

Lucky last.
With an upset in Nebraska 2 as Omaha votes Obama.
Arizona falls into the Toss up zone - how embarrassing, & Ohio goes to leaning Obama.
North Dakota, followed by Montana will be very close, & could fall either way.
I believe Obama will prevail in Indiana, & North Carolina with the early turn out.
GOBAMA!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-06 @ 16:11:55
Nice, Demboy! Obama MAY HAVE lost MO & NE-02, but only by a hair! You may beat me on points due to your more accurate percentages: 60%+ in MA, CT & CA & +50% in NV.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-06 @ 18:44:07
Hey Win! Thanks! Congratulations on electing a new President! & for winning INDIANA! Yay! Finally she joins her cousins in the Northeast & votes Democrat! Well done! In regards to my predictions they were very poll driven. I was analysing them on this site almost daily! I was slightly nervous on the day but when Pennsylvania went to Obama on exit polls I knew we were in for a good day!!! My highlights were Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, & Hamilton County in Ohio - finally voting Democrat! Gee Obama slaughtered him in Nevada - ended up being 12 points, this blew out in the end didn't it? & can I just say thank God that the stupid Bradley effect some on here kept going on about proved to be wrong. Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 18:44:47

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 01:24:15
Perhaps the only relevent "Bradley effect": the Rachel Maddow theory, that Alaska voters were leary of telling pollsters they were voting for convicted felon Stephens. They'll be counting absentees & early votes for a while up there, though. I was nervous about MO & IN, and knew I could not predict Obama loosing here, having first hand seen the energy of the campaign's efforts. I had no such knowledge of MO, and percieved a greater evangelical influence there. In the end I went by polling showing Obama better off there, and couldn't reason predicting IN & not MO. So I lost out there. You will score points on NE-2 in the end. 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County. Your percentages are incredible: off only in CT, HI, & WY. IN is Blue.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:08:03
How shocking that they voted for a convicted fellon. I can't believe it, & can't see this happening almost anywhere else, probably in the entire world, developed world that is. Absolutely shocking. Just goes to show how much of that state is in his pocket & v.v. doesn't it? This is a person that won't be allowed to be seated in the Senate, & McCain has asked him to resign. I guess the only thing it does is allow Palin to appoint herself if she wants in the Senate. Missouri I thought was in the bag for Obama, considering they normally predict the winner with their vote, & the fact he had such large turn outs there - 100,000 in St Louis, & 75,000 in Kansas City, both areas he did really well, but wasn't quite enough, considering the rest of the state votes in 1 block just about. Awfully close though, the closest of the election. There had to be a surprise for McCain somewhere, so might as well be Missouri. Has Nebraska 2 gone to Obama? As I can't seem to see results for it, other than the counties. Awesome! I would have loved to have seen Obama do a big rally in Omaha! Would have been cool to see him there in the heartland, obviously it wasn't necessary but would have been cool. I saw he polled well in Omaha & Lincoln! I'm disappointed with my prediction on Hawaii, as I was so close to giving it 70% but thought no maybe that's a bit over the top! I really did think McCain would poll early 30's there with the military vote, white population, retirees, & the other candidates on the ballot. Oh well, great result in Hawaii! Vermont also nearly went over 70% I am so happy Indiana has finally finally gone Democrat, this for me was one of the true highlights! As we say in Australia - you bloody ripper! Fantastic result! I have no doubt Obama is going to be awesome & whoever the Reps throw up will have trouble as he is an inclusive non partisan politician. So for them it's going to be real hard. He does have difficult times ahead, he certainly hasn't been handed any favours by Bush or the Republicans in their poor governance. I would be surprised to see Palin back in any form on the National stage, & even more surprised if she was ever a credible threat. She connects with the base but no one else. If they pick her next time, going on her performance this time around, they are done! Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 02:12:07

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 02:43:13
Palin as a candidate would loose in a huge landslide. I think Jindal is the rising star, and a smart guy, I understand, an unusual quality in a popular Republican pol. The GOP would do well to become more moderate, but its not going to happen. You're percentages are good - you got MA + DC right, more than most. McCain leads in Omaha in preliminary results by about 500 in NE2. By the time the provisionals and early votes are counted, Obama will come out ahead. THIS is the heartland. Have you seen the NYT trend maps? Indiana is the deepest and largest bloc of Blue on the map!! Thank-you Hillary Clinton! The campaign infrastructure and awarenss from the primaries were crucial. How did it happen? http://www.blueindiana.net/showDiary.do;jsessionid=C00B4DD6137FF40296E6DC08D0DFEB85?diaryId=3433

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:47:41
No I meant Republican heartland re Omaha. Yes go Indiana! Ohio was good too. Do you think Obama will hold on in North Carolina? How many more votes usually come in now? Flashback to Florida in 2000, there are more to come in from overseas etc?

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 03:02:41
Actually I knew it was all downhill when CNN projected Pennsylvania before any votes had been counted. When McCain had campaigned so heavily there in the last weeks thinking he could win. Same with Minnesota, & Wisconsin! Didn't even bother to watch the votes - won on exit polling data.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 03:03:46
Wasn't happy to see the counties around Pittsburgh go Republican! Although Pittsburgh itself was still a good result, as I knew it would be. But fancy Obama picking up counties in the so called "Alabama" of PA hey?! Result in the east & around Philly was very good.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 03:16:23
He's the NYT trend map: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html Note Indiana dark blue on the map - practically the whole state is dark blue +20% from 2004. Now look at the exit poll page for Indiana. According to it, Obama got 4% LESS of the Black vote than Kerry in '04. Hard to believe. But he got 22% more of the white vote, 34% in 2004, and 45% this year. Pretty dramatic. Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 03:17:48

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 04:33:21
Very Impressive! Hooray!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 18:26:12
Omaha paper called NE-02 for Obama this afternoon. Congrats, Demboy. I think you, Liberalover & Rock are top dogs.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-09 @ 07:14:32
Nice one! Great to see Omaha cross over! Let's see if we can pull out a congressional win there next time! :)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	2	147	480	T	684
2016 President
2012 President	53/56	37/56	90/112	80.4%	1	150	489	T	760
2010 Senate	36/37	23/37	59/74	79.7%	5	1	63	T	456
2008 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	45	0	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	14/33	47/66	71.2%	5	1	204	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	21/52	58/104	55.8%	20	-	52	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	1	1	65	T	465
2004 President	54/56	35/56	89/112	79.5%	9	3	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	365/390	238/390	603/780	77.3%

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