Last update, 5 days before election, takes Nevada into the Republican column (relatively low early voting numbers, esp. among youth & minorities, bodes well for McCain), but the preponderance of polls led me to move Ohio into the Obama camp.

Conceivable, a best-case scenario for Obama would be that he could carry, in addition to the states above, NC, GA, FL, MO, MT, ND, NV, IN, and even AZ, giving him a victory of 406-132 as the most extreme possibility.

On the other hand, despite McCain's efforts in PA, I think the only states I indicated for Obama that he might lose would be OH and VA (the latter being quite a stretch, based on the latest polls), which would still give Obama a 273-265 electoral vote victory, though it is possible that heavy McCain support in the southern half of the Plains, part of the Intermountain West, the upper South, and Appalachia could throw the total popular vote slightly to McCain, at the other extreme possibility. If McCain somehow picks off PA in addition to the states I indicated, he'll take home a 286-252 win, but with recent polling that seems very far fetched.

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