Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	353
Rep	185
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	84

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+8	0	+101	0	0	0	20	2	252	+101
Rep	0	0	0	-8	0	-101	23	3	185	-101
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	50	42	4	3

Analysis

Final map. If Obama has a good night, then Missouri and Indiana should flip to him. Anything beyond that seems unlikely though not impossible...though admittedly somewhat storybooky.

Unless polling throughout this cycle has been systemically flawed, either because of Bradley effects or incorrect turnout models, or Democratic complacency plagues the electorate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: DasKaek (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 13:29:11
Crie my friend

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	13	0	26	T	1,505
2004 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%	13	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	106/112	75/112	181/224	80.8%

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