PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - ottermax () ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:17

Prediction Map
ottermax MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ottermax MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem364
 
Rep174
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep160
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+90+112000202252+112
Rep000-90-112223174-112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
97494143
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Alabama: No change from 2004. Increased Black turnout, as well as racist votes.

Alaska: Closer than 2004, but Palin prevents this state from being a tossup.

Arkansas: Probably a strong swing toward the GOP, but this won't be the strongest state either for McCain.

Arizona: Surprisingly close, but in the end a good margin for McCain.

California: Huge margin for Obama, but not enough for 60%.

CO: Important race for Obama. If he wins this state he is pretty sure to win the presidency. I expect a fair margin for him, although closer than the polls.

CT: Massive lead here for Obama. Near 60%.

DE: Very close to 60% for Obama here, but not, despite Biden.

DC: Maybe 90%, but I say 89.95%.

FL: Slight lead for Obama, which surprises me.

GA: Close in the polls, but it will go handily to McCain tomorrow night.

HI: The largest margin outside of DC. Hometown advantage. (and perfect for the state ideologically)

ID: Closer than 2004, but still McCain territory.

IL: Big state for Obama, barely over 60%.

IN: The closest state other than MO. But this one will sadly go to McCain. I hope I am wrong on this one and Obama squeaks out a win.

IA: Impressive lead for Obama accompanied with a huge swing.

KS: Swings to Obama, at least keeping McCain under 60%.

KY: Tough state for Obama. Shouldn't pass 60%, but will be close.

LA: Another bad state for Obama, should go strongly McCain, mainly because of Katrina.

MD: Great state for Obama. Approaches 60%.

ME: Another great state for Obama, no worries over CD-2.

MA: Not a great state for Obama, but should barely go over 60% because of liberalism.

MN: Good state for Obama, but bad polling. I say it will be reasonably moderate margins here.

MI: Bad state for Obama, but the economy will override any GOP leads.

MO: The closest race. I expect a late night squeaker for Obama, but I wouldn't bet on this.

MS: Should be a closer margin than in 2004, but nothing that will change the winner.

MT: Very close polling, but it will give a small margin to McCain. Don't expect results here until late at night.

NE: Big win for McCain. He may run close in CD-2, but I expect it to go for him even if it is slightly close.

ND: Surprise me please. It will go McCain, but much closer than in 2004.

NC: Very close, but it will go Obama by a hair. I bet a few weeks ago it would go McCain, but I hope I give that dollar to my friend.

NJ: Win for Obama, no surprises.

NY: Win for Obama and 60% for that matter.

NH: Close win for Obama, expecting a closer margin than PA.

NM: Good win for Obama, but rather close, just not as much as the last two elections.

NV: A very close race here, but it will go for Obama by a fair margin.

OH: Not great for Obama, but it will vote for him. Again, close, but like North Dakota close.

OK: I think it will surprise us with a swing toward Obama, but not a huge one.

OR: Big margin for Obama, or will the absentees be silent tories?

PA: Will be close, but it will follow the polls. No surprises, in fact it swings for Obama!

RI: Small swing for Obama, enough for 60%.

SC: Swings toward Obama, but not enough for a win.

SD: Also swings toward Obama, but as a testament to the uncompetitiveness of PA, the margins in these two states are similar.

TN: One state that will swing against Obama, but barely.

TX: Swings toward Obama, hopefully building the Democrats for the future.

UT: Swing to Obama, under 70% thankfully. Yay Utah!

VT: Wonderful state. Over 60% Obama!!

VA: Another wonderful state. Good margin for Obama and he wins!

WA: My home. And it will go Obama by a strong margin!

WI: Nice margin for Obama here. Cheese.

WV: Bad for Obama, but the numbers here stay stable, maybe even swinging for him.

WY: Swing to Obama, but not by a lot.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2016 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 224 182T760
P 2012 Senate 26/33 11/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 246 291T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 21/52 68/104 65.4% pie 12 - 13T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 6 3 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 25/37 60/74 81.1% pie 5 1 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 53 41T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 17 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 4 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 15 3T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 48/52 26/52 74/104 71.2% pie 13 - 3T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 15/49 55/98 56.1% pie 11 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 174 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 12 4 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 15 3 58T312
P 2004 President 52/56 27/56 79/112 70.5% pie 2 6 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 596/648 376/648 972/1296 75.0% pie


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