Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-21 Version:8

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	224
Rep	314
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	203
Rep	117
Ind	0
Tos	218

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+1	+1	+8	-3	-1	-36	17	1	216	-28
Rep	+3	+1	+36	-1	-1	-8	30	2	278	+28
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
71	40	25	4	2

Analysis

I think this map, and anyone's map, is contingent on the current events of the next 2 weeks. Another economic crisis and Obama wins hands down. If there is a world crisis, especially involving military aggression or terrorism, I think McCain could pull it out.
So this version is based on some event that might shift things over to McCain over the next 2 weeks.
I McCain's win will be lower then expected in Georgia, Arkansas and Mississippi. I think Obama's states are pretty solid. Maybe lower then expected in Oregon.
I also changed a bunch of states to a >40% margin. I hear a lot of people saying they are not sure about either candidate.
The independent candidates may pick up more then the 4% they currently show if a lot of independents want to spite both parties and make a protest vote. But 4% would still be pretty high considering the lack of any media coverage they are getting this year.
And what happened to NJ? I thought they were due to shift to the GOP, they are long overdue. Maybe in 2012.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-10-31 @ 23:43:57
Don't expect New Jersey to drift to the Republican column in 2012. New Jersey is one of the bluest of the blue states these days, not far behind New York. If anything, states like Virginia and Colorado are drifting Democratic.

By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-11-01 @ 10:02:51
hey! this was like my map in september

By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-02 @ 23:34:27
The comments I am hearing from a lot of people, make me really feel bad for John McCain. The disgust people have now about the GOP and Bush, is what I felt in 2004. How come everyone is so far behind? I saw a lot of this mess coming in 2004, I think a lot of people did. This really should have been Kerry vs McCain, and I think Kerry would have been the fall guy as all this crap with the banks still would have happened the same way. It's just a shame McCain has waited so long for this, and it's his last shot. Kind of like he joked about on SNL this weekend, Obama is young, he will have plenty of more chances. But if Obama does win without the center of the US going for him, then we might see a shift in voting patterns in 2012 or 2016. Which states will balance out the Democratic shifts? It always happens sooner of later. The deep South used to be all Democratic. Now it's just the opposite. I think the shifts will have to come to the states McCain is looking at now, but it may be too early for that to happen in this time period. I think down the road we will see Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pa turn more conservative, as the Western states are more influenced by California. And when are we going to get around in to breaking up California into 2 or 3 states? It doesn't make sense that a state with such as large percentage of the population has only 2 Senators, and such a big "winner takes all" electoral vote. Last Edit: 2008-11-02 @ 23:37:19

By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-07 @ 01:08:07
I just realized what happened, my predictions are 4 years ahead of where they should be. My 2004 map was closer to what really happened this year. In 2004 I had Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado going to the Dems in a big win. Maybe my 2008 prediction will be good for 2012? HA!! Yeah, my 2008 prediction was way off, but I did think it would be contingent on some big world event in the last 2 weeks. Also, I thought the independents would get a much higher percentage. They really dropped off the map this year, and the pollsters were way off on their percentage, which mostly went to McCain. Well it was fun to visit this site again, but it was giving me a headache near the end. Congrats to all of you who had it correct, or got real close. Especially to those who had it right a month or two ago, not those who just updated it the last few days to reflect the polls. I hope Obama is a great President. He has the opportunity to be another Ronald Reagan, because we need hope just like we did in 1980 when things were so bad after Jimmy Carter. So I hope history repeats itself and Obama can rebuild America like Reagan did. And I wish they would lay off Palin, if she is so stupid and unqualified, why is the liberal media still trying to demolish her after the election?

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-11-07 @ 02:55:24
Why would the world want to stage an event that would get the Republicans back in? As you saw from the world reaction we love Obama & the Democrats. The entire world was rooting for Obama! Muslim included. You lost us when we watched the 2000 fiasco & Bush stealing an election in what was supposed to be the world's greatest democracy. I agree now re Palin too, it's sad, & I hope they leave her alone now, this election was not entirely her fault.

By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-11 @ 13:55:15
I made a big deal about the trends of the bellwether states, but obviously a new trend was starting. And looking back, I realized that was the case in 2000 when Delaware and Missouri voted opposite. But the trend looked too strong for the core bellwether states to be wrong, and I was fooled. But they were wrong, and that brings me back to 2000, and the last 3 elections. I never realized that the hispanic vote is what got Bush elected twice. It was not that apparent until the election poll results for 2008 came out. Here's CNN's exit data for 2008: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1 Blacks have been trending more Democratic, whites for the GOP, and the hispanics will now decide the President for the foreseeable future. That is, unless the demographics change in the GOP and Dem parties, which I don't foresee anytime soon. I had a feeling about this, and I posted it somewhere along the line. The GOP had better start recruiting and promoting more hispanics in the party. It's as simple as that, and if they don't, they are destined to lose 7 of the next 10 elections like the Democrats had before 2008. Last Edit: 2008-11-11 @ 13:56:13

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-11 @ 14:04:36
Obama did better among whites than Gore or Kerry. I don't think you can say they're trending GOP. I agree on Hispanics. Texas and Arizona will be Democratic targets in 2012.

By: hotpprs (R-NY) 2008-11-11 @ 14:31:33
I don't have the info for the 2000 or 2004 elections, but I was just basing it on the fact that whites voted solidly for McCain in just about every category except for younger voters and Democratic registered white voters. The younger voters probably account for the fact that Obama did better among whites then Gore or Kerry. But that may be just an exception for this year, because of the excitement Obama generated, especially for 1st time voters. I don't think whites will trend Democratic unless the Democratics make good on the promises they are making to the middle class. Not just Obama, I mean the Congress too. If this turns out to be a "bait and switch", then I don't see the demographics shifting.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-11 @ 15:11:18
Whites did trend Democratic in 2008. For example, President Bush carried 62 percent of white men in 2004, while McCain won only 57 percent of them. I agree that this cannot be termed a permanent trend. What will be consistent is the decline of the white vote as a proportion of total votes. It was only 75% this year.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	44/56	27/56	71/112	63.4%	8	14	902	T	1,505
2004 President	52/56	14/56	66/112	58.9%	3	3	1708	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	96/112	41/112	137/224	61.2%

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