Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-10-23 Version:14

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	379
Rep	159
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	286
Rep	136
Ind	0
Tos	116

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+11	+1	+127	0	0	0	20	2	252	+127
Rep	0	0	0	-11	-1	-127	20	2	159	-127
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
93	49	37	5	2

Analysis

McCain has abandoned Colorado and New Mexico. He's abandoned Iowa and Wisconsin. It's pretty clear that Obama will win Virginia, and will probably take Florida. McCain's big strategy is to keep all of the Bush states (except those that he's abandoned) and win Pennsylvania. Where he's behind by 10-15 percent.

So, in so many words, he's conceded the election.

New polls show that Indiana and Montana have Obama leading, and I think it'll stay that way on election day (by slim margins though). I also think that Obama will peel off Omaha. What I'm really curious about is Arizona. Why haven't there been any Arizona polls released in almost a month?

So in other words: anyone still pushing a close election or a McCain win has had their head under a rock since, well, like May or something. Obama wins big.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: tetanurae (D-WA) 2008-11-07 @ 18:30:22
I missed Missouri and Montana, but everything else was right!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 19:46:32
Obama will be back to MT in 2012!

By: tetanurae (D-WA) 2008-12-05 @ 11:00:03
I also missed the percentage in Hawaii. Who knew he'd win more than 70%? It's like the anti-Wyoming.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-12-13 @ 18:30:59
Looking at this map, I think people who call a race at >40% in the wrong direction should be awarded one point for getting the percentage right but not the winner, because when it's essentially tied predicting the tie at about 48-49% is already a fine prediction. That was re your Montana prediction. I think if Obama does a good job and has his "Did you think 1932 was a realigning landslide election just wait for 1936" moment, I foresee that Missouri, Montana, Georgia and Arizona will be the next states to swing. MO does follow a slight conservative trend but is generally going the same way as the country, MT was astonishingly close and can be a win for Democrats in some landslide circumstances (after all, it has a Dem gov and two Dem senators).

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	1	86	496	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	16/34	45/68	66.2%	1	86	277	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	1	86	164	T	279
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	6	4	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	4	4	40	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	4	51	T	228
2008 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	14	12	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	18	81	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	97	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	8/52	39/104	37.5%	3	-	110	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	37/49	20/49	57/98	58.2%	5	-	18	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	70	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	5	1	65	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	22/36	56/72	77.8%	3	4	58	T	312
2004 President	46/56	22/56	68/112	60.7%	12	12	1672	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	463/531	283/531	746/1062	70.2%

Links

Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home