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Date of Prediction: 2008-08-17 Version:1

Prediction Map
Torie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Torie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
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State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages

No Analysis Entered

Member Comments
 By: franzl (D-DEU) 2008-08-17 @ 14:27:36
How is Iowa lean GOP? :)prediction Map

 By: sbane (I-CA) 2008-08-17 @ 15:46:46
You did not predict a victory for the messiah? Blasphemy!!!!!!! Oh and whats up with OR?prediction Map

 By: Torie (D-NY) 2008-08-17 @ 18:53:52
I gave Oregon to the messiah sbane. By happy. I just think it will be close. Franzl, I missed initially sending Iowa across the River Styx from the default zone (which was blue because Bush carried it in 2004). I caught it in about 5 minutes or so, and sent Iowa off to its shameful fate.

Last Edit: 2008-08-17 @ 18:55:58
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 By: anti_leftist (I-ON) 2008-08-18 @ 01:31:28
Your prediction (including the 4 tossups) is almost identical to mine. Just the one minor difference that I gave the final edge in Ohio and Colorado (and consequently the election) to Obama.prediction Map

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-08-18 @ 07:17:23
at today's polls this map is very plausible as is the one giving Ohio and Colorado to Obama-the American people will be closely divided because of three reasons-

International Relations (experience)
Economy and Energy (which cuts both ways!)

But we are in the Olympic doldrums a typical time for Republican narrowing of the is the VP for Obama and that convention.....and a small bounce 8-10 points...

Then narrowing again and the Republican convention and a bounce for the GOP and Mccain.

Then a narrowing and the general election commences with the debates!

In November as CR is apt to say we will see how we stand!

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-08-18 @ 13:18:08
Uh, who exactly is the "messiah"?

I am confused. I no no presumptive candidate with this name.

I know of one named Obama, the other named McCain.

Anyone want to enlighten us here?

(I hope the point is coming across)
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 By: sbane (I-CA) 2008-08-18 @ 13:56:24
Obama is the messiah DUHHHH!!!! haven't you been listening to the republican talking points?

Torie, Oregon is not going to be below 50% this year considering it even gave kerry 51% of the vote. If Mccain is keeping Obama under 50 here he is probably winning with over 300 EV's.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-18 @ 14:16:23
That was ironic. Calling Obama the messiah is preposterous, that was the point that was supposed to be coming across and apparently didn't.
But since McCain is defining himself as the un-Obama, he seems to be following the "messiah" as well...
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-08-18 @ 16:43:16
Agreed on OR.

Last Edit: 2008-08-18 @ 16:43:37
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 By: Torie (D-NY) 2008-08-18 @ 19:58:34
Sbane, in 2000 Oregon was skin tight. It will be again. I just feel it. I feel the spirit. prediction Map

 By: sbane (I-CA) 2008-08-18 @ 20:36:47
Right but in 2000 we had Nader messing up things. The lefties will only have Barry to vote for and those subarbanites just adore Obama. What is your California projection? prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-19 @ 03:27:54
Exactly, Nader took 6% of the vote of which 5 would have gone to Gore. Oregon leans Democratic and Obama will have a majority there, not just 47 or 48%.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-08-19 @ 03:37:28
It will not be tight at all in OR. The entire west coast is so solid blue, you cannot see another color through it. Anything else is just propaganda at this point.

Wait: I see UT and WY tightening up!!!!!!

(See, it can go both ways)
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-19 @ 05:50:44
What, you mean Utah and Wyoming won't vote for McCain by more than 70%? lolprediction Map

 By: Torie (D-NY) 2008-08-19 @ 11:59:22
CA will be a 14% Obama win. Polls showed about 40% of the Nader vote going for Gore, and 20% for Bush (the rest going elsewhere or not voting), so that in 2000, that cost Gore about 1% in Oregon maybe.

Last Edit: 2008-08-19 @ 12:01:18
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 By: sbane (I-CA) 2008-08-19 @ 12:47:14
I seriously doubt 20% of Nader's vote in OR would vote for Bush. I mean they probably just came back from hugging some trees and saving some owl or some crap. And if 40% of them do not even vote the percentages would change. I am guessing something like a 3 point win for Gore. So Kerry definitely improved on Gore's performance here and it was mostly due to the war. All Obama needs to win here is cut a few anti-war ads and an ad or two showing Mccain bearhugging Bush and it's over. prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-19 @ 12:48:34
Still, in the two very similar 2000 and 2004 elections, Kerry performed better than Gore in some states precisely because Nader didn't take as many votes as he did in 2000. The examples are numerous: Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont are a few (off the top of my head). If you add the Nader vote to the Gore vote, the statistic are almost exactly the same except in the South where Kerry underperformed and Nader mattered less.
Nader helped Bush steal 2000. Nader voters are left-wingers and they would have voted for Gore otherwise, no matter what your polls say.
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 By: sbane (I-CA) 2008-08-19 @ 16:13:56
Or they would not have voted, which is a definite possibility. In a close race Nader was certainly the difference. People wanted a left of center government but we got Bush. prediction Map

 By: Torie (D-NY) 2008-08-19 @ 17:52:54
The Nader numbers are not made up by me. They are real, and Nader himself cites them, FWIW.

[url=]Here[/url] is a kind of interesting article. It would also be interesting to check the strongest Nader counties against the swing to in 2004 versus 2000.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-20 @ 14:58:50
Excuse me, but even by your numbers Gore would have won more than 537 Nader votes in Florida and therefore won the election he indeed won.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-08-21 @ 07:00:39
OH, let's not go there...prediction Map

 By: Ronnie (D-CA) 2008-10-10 @ 23:53:04
Torie, I think it may be time to update your predictions.prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 48/56 27/56 75/112 67.0% pie 1 79 702T
Aggregate Predictions 48/56 27/56 75/112 67.0% pie

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