PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - doniki80 (I-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-08 Version:7

Prediction Map
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Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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Prediction History
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Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-12 @ 05:00:03
Hillary needs to pull out all stops to win Wisconsin!
It's not the end of the race if she looses but she needs a mighty injection of confidence to her campaign.
She can't have Obama keep beating her either by 60% +
He's not that good.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-12 @ 23:27:37
Wisconsin goes green.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-15 @ 05:35:00
Will be a lot narrower than the last wins though.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-17 @ 02:42:25
She certainly needs to turn things around & fast.
The flip side of that coin however is that Obama will not pull out in front of her massively either.
& as most commentators are saying it's going to come down to the Super delegates.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-17 @ 02:43:59
So it hasn't been a convincing win by Obama either.
They've both done well & in different places.
Hillary in the big states, Obama in the South, & Midwest particularly, & amongst independents, African Americans, & men.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-17 @ 15:04:14
Obama has a lead of 130 some pledged delegates. While not overwhelming, its a decent lead that Clinton will be hard pressed to overcome. While its true that he cannot clinch without the superdelegates either, those elected and party officials are not going to overturn the wishes of the voters as expressed by the pledged delegate count.

It is interesting that while Clintonites can say she 'won' the big states, she did not do so by large enough margins to rack up delegate leads, as she had hoped. Obama netted more delegates in Kansas, for example, than Clinton did in New Jersey.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:30:16
Yep & Kansas, Idao, Utah, Nebraska et al are states that Obama will be hard pressed to win in the general election.
(if he gets the nomination)
Anyway she's going to win the next big states too & Wisconsin almost falls in the margin of error too.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-18 @ 14:27:56
Your point re Kansas et al? Of course this is not relevent to the nomination. I believe the number of delegates are already adjusted to account for whether a state has voted Democratic in the past.

Now Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota, plus Missouri, Nevada and New Mexico (where Obama ran about even with Clinton) are all fairly important in any Democrats' GE strategy. So he is at least even in potential swing state victories - I'd say a state or two ahead.

Just how do states "fall in the margin or error"? If you are referring to below that margin that results in significant net delegates to the winner, I'd agree as to upcoming contests. Clinton can win the rest of the contests in that way and she'll still trail Obama in pledged delegates. Your candidate is in a bit of a pickle.

Last Edit: 2008-02-18 @ 14:29:14
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 04:59:08
Virginia hasn't voted Democrat in yonks just to make a point.
However it's great to think it may be back in play finally.
Almost as bad as your state Indiana.
The margin of error I was referring to was for the polls on those states not the actual states or the votes - the polls.
She is in a pickle unfortunately I'm not about to deny that but she certainly can still win it.
Stranger things have happened.
It's not over yet despite the spin that your camp would have us all believe.
I also have to point out 60% for Obama in Pennsylvania seems very optimistic indeed.
You'll only get that sort of a result if Clinton has withdrawn.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 10:05:01
If she looses Texas and Ohio, as in my map, she will withdraw.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 23:44:40
Famous last words.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 05:06:13
I suspected she would probably win Ohio and Texas, but I also suspect that in the long run it means little for her chances at the nomination.

She has no way of winning unless Michigan and Florida get reinstated or the superdelegates pick her over the probable choice of the people. Neither seems likely. And in the end, as the Clinton campaign reminded us the night of the first Super Tuesday, it is delegates and not states that decide this race.

Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 05:10:00
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 05:08:44
Whoblitzell: you stated clearly on previous map versions that you thought it would be over after Texas and Ohio for Clinton.

I remember the exchanges quite well or have you deleted them already lol.

Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 05:10:05
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 05:09:40
Indeed, but I changed my opinion when polls broke for Hillary :Pprediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 05:10:30
Um yeah, Right
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 07:05:39
Pennsylvania is going to be another big win, & these big states make all the little ones, & the caucuses look like nice little tea parties for Obama.
He wins the states mostly that are going to be firmly in the Republican column in November, & the others if they had primaries rather than these caucuses he would have struggled to win in the first place.
Not saying he hasn't done well, & he may just win it yet but...

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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 16:26:28
It's more likely than not Obama will win given his nearly insurmountable pledged delegate lead and that he has so far done better than Hillary in the cumulative popular vote. I don't see the supers out and out siding against the will of the people (regardless of who the will of the people is in June).

Hillary needs to make a compelling argument to get to 2024 over Obama. Time will tell if she can.
It would be political suicide for all involved, including the eventual nominee.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-09 @ 17:01:02
Dem: Are you conceding the states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticutt, Illinois, Washington, Deleware, Vermont, Maine, D.C., and Missouri to the Republicans in November? Obviously, the Democrats would loose by a large electoral margin if that were the case. Those are half of the contests that Obama has won outright, many by large margins, not to mention Nevada and New Mexico, where there were slim popular vote margins.

Would Obama have lost a primary in Minnesota, where he won among cacusgoers 2-1 and won by a comanding margin in neighboring Wisconsin? I doubt it. The same could be said for Iowa and most of the other caucus states. They confirmed the results of neighboring primary states that Obama also won. He won the 'beauty contest' primary in Washington state in addition to winning the caucus there. Over half of the contests Obama won were primaries.

This is the kind of complaint of unfairness only after the fact of a loss that is very suspect. The candidates agreed to proceed under the rules as they have been - states determine what kind of contest they would hold.

Clinton may be able to argue that she won the bigger state when all is said & done. Except of course, for Illinois, the fifth most populous state in the country, where Obama won by twice the margin of any large state won by Clinton. We will have to see on Pennsylavania, Michigan, and Florida. Without a corresponding lead in pledged delegates or the overall poular vote, this argument won't take her very far.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 23:51:53
Washington electorate was tailored made for him "latte liberals" notice how the "beauty contest" primary was much closer then the caucus hmm wonder why that is?
Now heres the part where you tell me his supporters didnt turn out right lmao. Clinton won Oklahoma Tennessee Arizona on Super Tuesday and last time I checked Texas was as republican as they come as well.

Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 23:52:29
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-10 @ 00:02:10
Virginia & Missouri are tough asks at the best of times.
I was referring to places like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska etc in my previous comments.
States where he won by massive margins but in all honesty will have a snowball's chance in hell of winning in November.
Again if he wins the nomination & succeeds in pulling off the above states I would be totally shocked & happy.
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 264
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 25 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 24/36 56/72 77.8% pie 21 3 94T372
P 2016 President 51/56 36/56 87/112 77.7% pie 53 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 18/34 50/68 73.5% pie 33 1 89T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 5/12 15/24 62.5% pie 5 1 47T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 17/36 51/72 70.8% pie 56 0 200T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 40 0 192T300
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 96 1 47T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 26 2 20T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 16/52 6/52 22/104 21.2% pie 3 - 187T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 20/37 54/74 73.0% pie 73 1 151T456
P 2010 Governor 36/37 19/37 55/74 74.3% pie 50 2 118T312
P 2008 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 80 1 26T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 16 4 117T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 46/52 26/52 72/104 69.2% pie 10 - 7T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 10/49 3/49 13/98 13.3% pie 1 - 195T235
Aggregate Predictions 537/650 343/650 880/1300 67.7% pie

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