PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - demboy73 (D-AUS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-09 Version:7

Prediction Map
demboy73 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
demboy73 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton25
 
Edwards0
 
Obama21
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton17
 
Edwards0
 
Obama14
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup15
 

Analysis

Yes at the moment the momentum is with Obama however Hillary is not done yet, & can still win.
I believe her strengths coming up are Maine, Ohio, & Texas.
I think she can squeak out wins in both Washington, & Wisconsin, & perhaps Hawaii, even though Obama was born there.
It's a very diverse state, where a woman should do well.
Either way the delegates are still going to be close until Ohio, & Texas, where she will do very well I believe.
Interesting that Obama does not want to debate much, as she is a stronger debater in my opinion as Ms C is more articulate & of course has more plans.
It's experience versus change.
But let's face it's going to be change regardless as it won't be Bush, so in my opinion that argument is voided somewhat.


Prediction History
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Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-09 @ 03:04:21
Clinton has a longer record of actually producing "change"

Hillary 2008!

We wont back down as she never has backed down in her commitment to help the working class and less fortunate.
If she loses the primary I will do a write in vote for her in November which will hurt Obama because against Mc Cain he will need all the votes he can get.

Last Edit: 2008-02-10 @ 03:08:14
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-09 @ 07:41:38
At least she has a record.
Something one can evaluate.
She takes a stand for what she believes in & is not afraid to fight for what is right.
I'm starting to think she may have more of a chance in North Carolina now than previously thought, especially with Edwards gone.
It's clear Obama is not as popular in the South as some would have you believe.
I think this could be a surprise.
Although the vote is later so I guess it depends where it's at.
But if it's still close I think this could be a kicker.

Last Edit: 2008-02-09 @ 07:43:40
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-09 @ 07:56:55
I will be deeply disappointed if she does not get through.
Honestly I don't know how I would feel with Obama versus McCain as again it's experience versus the whole Obama change mantra.
I would hate to see the Republicans win the White House again but in some areas McCain seems stronger.
Although saying America could be in Iraq for 100 years is great fodder for any Democratic candidate.
What a stupid comment to make.
America doesn't want to be there this year!
Let alone in 100 years!
Obama in my opinion is a huge unknown.
I do know the last time someone of his "experience" ie George W. Bush got in, he was ruled by his advisers.
Will it be the same with Obama?
He needs another term in the Senate as the Senator for Illinois.
Or as Hillary's running mate!
He can learn from the best!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-09 @ 08:01:25
Also I could be completely wrong but I'm feeling confident for Hillary in Washington state today.
There are alot of women voters in Washington & they like voting for women candidates - woman Governor (who should be supporting Hillary), & 2 women Senators, let's make it a trifecta today with Hillary for Democratic nominee!
The latest poll had her closing in.
Interesting.
Would give her a good boost today, over the likely Obama wins in Louisiana, & Nebraska.
Damn those caucases - what are they sheep? Do they all have to follow the loudest & rowdiest?!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-09 @ 22:41:38
Gutted over Washington.
I belive if it was a primary Hillary would have done much better here.
Still it was a Saturday so you would think more people could have turned out.
Isn't it amazing the difference in voters in a primary over a caucus.
Clearly the primary is the larger democratic process.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-11 @ 13:36:27
Washington did surprise me, although I expected Obama to win I didn't think the margin would be as large as it was. I actually flipped a coin to decide Maine on my map and guessed that it would be close.

If Hillary doesn't win Wisconsin, she might be in some serious trouble. I think an Obama sweep of the Potomac is looking very likely, as well.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-12 @ 05:02:42
I'd be drawing a line in the sand & saying you ain't beating me in Wisconsin.
Hold the fort Hill!
Show him who's boss!
lol
I still think she's going to have some good wins in Texas & Ohio.
It's a new day, get over it, & move on to victory!!!
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-12 @ 23:22:27
Wisconsin is already lost. The Clinton campaign has moved on to Ohio and Texas.. where they will surely win by just not enough. If they had only stayed, things may have been able to end differently.

But in the end, the future is only one.

Last Edit: 2008-02-12 @ 23:26:46
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-13 @ 07:07:18
Perhaps.
I'm surprised he could get such momentum from Super Tuesday when she won most of the big states.
I still think she'll win Texas & Ohio.
You'd have to think Obama has a homegrown advantage in Wisconsin being from next door Illinois, & the crossover of the media there.
Still it ain't over till it's over.
Obama is still not winning over the majority of white voters in most states I see, which is interesting for the general election.
Bottom line is he's the media's darling, he has no record, & so far does not divide the country like Hillary seems to do.
He does not have the hate that she's had inflected at her for the last 2 decades.
They wrote Hillary off after Iowa, & I see alot of people are doing the same now, so we'll see.
It's not looking great but I wouldn't write her off just yet.

Last Edit: 2008-02-13 @ 07:09:40
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-13 @ 10:33:54
He pretty much split the white vote with her in VA :pprediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-13 @ 18:23:02
Wins in Texas & Ohio won't even do it for her now, unless by enormous margins. (unlikely). prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-13 @ 20:35:44
Well, she definitely needs to beat Obama in pledged delegates to secure the nomination. The Democratic national party is not stupid enough to defy the voters. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-15 @ 05:25:54
Yep he had a great result in Virginia - it's true.
I thought she would have done better here than in Maryland actually.
I don't see Obama winning it either.
It's deadlocked.
He's hardly in front by a winning margin.
Either way they've both done well.
I guess it was hers to loose.
So we shall see.
Some of the latest polls have her narrowing in Wisconsin.
& she's still way out in front in Texas, Ohio, & Pennsylvania.
So it just goes to show not everyone's in love with Obama.
Scarlett Johanssen excluded with her laughable "I'm engaged to Obama" comment.
Yeah right.
I'm with Bill - Fantasy indeed.

Last Edit: 2008-02-17 @ 02:54:45
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-15 @ 05:27:58
Sorry that should read Fairytale.
Same thing.
It just goes to show you just have to be in the right place at the right time.
No experience necessary as long as you harp on about change enough & speak eloquently.
Ta dah!
Not sounding bitter or anything.
lol
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-15 @ 10:55:33
Well, she has to win Ohio and Texas.. and then probably Pennsylvania too. All O really has to do at this point is stay alive and keep his delegate lead, so I think the advantage is his even though they are deadlocked.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-16 @ 02:09:50
Obama lead in recent TX poll, & nearly even among latinos. Obama is ahead by a winning margin - nearly 140 pledged delegates. Remember all the talk about how hard it is to get a lead with proportional allocation? Its also hard to catch up.
I agree with other comments here - the supers aren't going to go against the leader in pledged delegates. Were already seeing it amongst african-american supers previously announced for Hillary.

where from, who?
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-16 @ 15:48:34
I am from Indianapolis. It is hard to imagine any scenario in which Hillary catches up at this point.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-16 @ 18:37:50
Me too - Broadripple. I see there are more recent head to head Indiana polls showing a more familiar GOP lead - but still not huge.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-17 @ 02:58:22
I think she has been campaigning better in the last week.
Wisconsin is still close.
Only 1 Texas poll has him leading, & several after have her comfortably in front still.
So time will tell who was right I guess.
I hope the momentum is turning back like New Hampshire.
The Obama camp has started to become overly confident, so maybe people will give them a timely reality check.
(not speaking about you guys but his advisers etc).
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-17 @ 03:01:03
The reason I think Hillary would be best is at this time the US needs to turn down the testosterone level of the Bush years.
& obviously this would be best done by a woman.
The US needs a softer & gentler approach to world affairs.
Still strong & defensive but not gung ho offensive.
I find Obama's comments on invading Pakistan as reflective of his deficiency in doing this.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-17 @ 14:55:45
Obama said he would go into Pakistan if we had intelligence that bin Laden was there, which is permissible under current US law. If Clinton disagrees with this, she has no business being President. Clinton votes re Iraq and Iran indicate that she is not the best candidate to turn the page in foreign affairs.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:38:54
Yep start another war - great idea.
& um I'm pretty sure from all intelligence Obama is either in Pakistan or damn close.
So no great big revelation there.
No this has not been Obama's foreign affairs highlight.


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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-18 @ 14:15:52
Specific intelligence as to his whereabouts, which would give a military incursion the ability to take him. (I think you knew what I meant). Not start a war, like the one Clinton voted to authorize against Iraq, or the one contemplated by voting to call Iran a terrorist state. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 05:03:13
I believe Obama said he would go in with or without the support of the Pakistani goverment.
So if you go into another country without their approval I believe that's called a war or an invasion.
I believe Osama is in Pakistan.
& yes the US should have concentrated more on this & Afghanistan rather than invading Iraq which was totally unrelated.
I believe Clinton's vote was a mistake but it does not define her candidacy.
She has been on the scene for a long time now so we can judge her on more than just one vote.
But it certainly was a mistake & she should have known better.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 23:32:02
Was Clinton's cruise missile bombing in Afghanistan in an attempt to take out Osama a war? We can go after him in Pakistan without a ground war a la Iraq.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-02-21 @ 10:48:28
I have a hard time trusting anyone on national security that can be easily fooled by (of all people) George W. Bush.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 23:42:41
I still can't believe she voted for it.
Oh well she's not for it now & that reflects the majority of Americans history on this position.
I believe at the time from memory (& I could be wrong) there was a majority support for the war, especially when it looked like it was done & dusted early on (until the insurgency that came later).
The focus should never have gone from Afghanistan!
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 05:01:00
Indeed. I'm not sure I want a person that was fooled by George W. Bush to replace him.

Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 05:01:27
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 05:14:31
Im not so sure I want someone with less experience then that failed George W Bush leading us. prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 05:18:31
George W. actually had quite a bit of experience in the corporate sector and as governor of Texas. For all the good it did us and him.

If anything, it goes to show that the 'experience' argument really means very little in terms of results as President. Some of the nation's best Presidents had no experience in government, after all.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 06:57:14
Everyone makes mistakes & she wasn't alone in the Senate for voting for this - I believe the majority of Democrat Senators were right behind her including John Kerry.
Barack Obama had the luxury of not being in the Senate at the time (that's right he still hasn't even completed his first term) so of course he says he would not have voted for it in hindsight.
But I agree a total mistake on her part.
Still everyone has to remember this was just after 9/11, you guys got attacked like you had never been attacked before, & they were getting fed misinformation by the administration - even though the average Joe could see through this - I did.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 06:58:31
Bottom line is both candidates want to pull the troops out now.
McCain wants to keep them there for 100 years!
Yeah right.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 16:16:49
I was of the belief that most of the information we were told by the government about Iraq's weapons programs were most likely either exaggerated, lies, or mistaken information. Bush and his people saw what they wanted to see and they truly believed they were making the right decision, but in the end it wasn't the right decision.

Bin laden got away and we're stuck in a war that has nothing to do with fighting Al-qaeda and thus far has only served to benefit the Wahhabist Islamic movement. This war will end far before 100 years have passed and John McCain will never be President.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-10 @ 00:06:37
demboy, you nailed it in your previous comment. prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-10 @ 08:27:17
Voting for a unecessary war costing billions of dollars, thousandsof lives and untold misery is hardly your everyday left the keys in the car kind of mistake, especially when you didn't bother to read the NIE which set out the dissagreements of the intelligence community with Bush's assertions. Nor is an elected official making a high profile speech against a then popular war a normal day at the office.

Judgment and courage are imporatant qualities in a president.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-10 @ 14:31:17
I agreeprediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-10 @ 14:56:02
Of course you do Mr Hyde, lolprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-10 @ 20:31:56
I don't ever recall reading this sort of grilling over John Kerry's support of the Iraq war & that was only the year before.
I guess Hillary should have predicted 9/11 too?
Why don't you also start grilling all the other Democrats that voted for it too.
Admittedly theyr'e not running for Pres but she certainly was not alone in this vote.
Bottom line is she doesn't support it now & wants to with draw the troops as soon as possible.
Better grill your own voters for voting W in twice too, even after the Iraq war!
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 04:46:59
I think most people that voted for Bush deeply regret it, and if not most a sizable number do.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-12 @ 05:16:18
I wished they had listened to the rest of the world almost united in a loud NO!
Oh well less than a year now Bush.
Thank God.
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-13 @ 11:28:25
Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards were never grilled about there support of the war effort because during the 2004 election the support of the Iraq war in the states was still 50/50. Yes pressure was always put on them by the left-wing of the Dem party, but Mr. Edwards never issued an apology for his vote until he once again sought the presidency again in 2007.

But now that the left-wing Dems have their candidate in Mr. Obama, naturally they have a different set standard to hold Mrs. Clinton to than what they held Mr. Kerry to.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-13 @ 16:46:35
I seem to remember half-a-dozen 'flip flop' ads that I guess you guys just don't remember. They were grilled on Iraq from the right and from the left. It's probably what cost him the election (voting for the war).prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-13 @ 17:47:03
I recall the flip-flop ads along with the Bush/Rove "wolf ad." What cost Mr. Kerry the election was his perceived lack of strength in defense and perceived liberalism. This country does not elect liberals!prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-13 @ 18:48:25
Unfortunately true, if one is perceived as too liberal thats why democrats must run to the center even if it angers liberals.
That has angered me in the past but it is clear why it must be done in order for a democrat to win.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-14 @ 01:11:42
Interstingly, Obama appeals accross the spectrum more effectively, for a number of reasons. In '04 the only choice that didn't support the war from the beginning was Nader, which would clearly have been a vote for Bush, who started the damn thing.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-14 @ 15:19:46
So does John Mc Cain at this point. At one point of the 2004 campaign John Kerry appealed to vast majority more of independents.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-25 @ 07:46:14
Well let's hope John Kerry's losing streak continues with his support of Obama - against Hillary that is!
Although the more I see of Obama's dirty laundry the more I think I would consider voting for McCain over Obama if I was an American.
I'm sorry but speaking up against Reverand Wrights sort of bigotry & offensive remarks only when it effects your campaign is not "Change you can believe in" or whatever his corny slogan is.
If Obama was such the great leader that he wants us all to believe then again he should have a track record (there we go again no track record) of standing up against these sorts of comments.
Makes you wonder how he thinks he can be President when he remained silent in church while his Pastor ranted & raved.
The remarks about September 11 on the first Sunday after the event is just so unbelievably unsympathetic to the victims & their families it's beyond belief.
How any can remain in his church amazes me.
Admittedly I started thinking & saying a toned down version of these things too - that America had reaped what it's sown - after the invasion of Iraq - well on 2 years after 9/11 but no no Reverand Wright was there in the first week - when the rest of us were too shell shocked to think.
However I always felt bad for September 11.
No matter what America has done around the world there is no excuse for that sort of violence against ordinary civilians.
Obama's strength in judgement should be well & truly questioned.

Last Edit: 2008-03-25 @ 07:47:20
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-26 @ 02:23:00
Demboy, you might go look at the new poll out of North Carolina with Obama up by 22 (same that had him at 1 pt lead last week).

I think keeping Hillary at 'lean' in North Carolina is wishful thinking at best dude.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-26 @ 02:55:52
Possibly who knows I'm not changing it just yet.
It's 1 poll Mr Who I wouldn't be getting too excited yet.
Maybe warm & fuzzies (if I supported Obama that is)!
lol

Last Edit: 2008-03-26 @ 02:57:24
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-26 @ 02:56:20
but your'e right I probably should change it to Obama!
haha
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-26 @ 02:56:38
Wishful thinking...prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-26 @ 11:47:28
The significance is that it is a 1 week change of 20 pts from 1 poll. I don't thinks he has a realistic chance of winning NC given the demographics.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-05 @ 08:29:38
That's true.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President
P 2012 President 53/56 37/56 90/112 80.4% pie 1 150 489T760
P 2010 Senate 36/37 23/37 59/74 79.7% pie 5 1 63T456
P 2008 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 45 0 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 14/33 47/66 71.2% pie 5 1 204T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 21/52 58/104 55.8% pie 20 - 52T271
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 1 65T465
P 2004 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 9 3 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 312/334 203/334 515/668 77.1% pie


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