PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - demboy73 (D-AUS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-15 Version:11

Prediction Map
demboy73 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
demboy73 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton25
 
Edwards0
 
Obama21
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton17
 
Edwards0
 
Obama12
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup17
 

Analysis

I'm going to go out on a limb here & say the rot stops with Wisconsin & Hawaii.
I don't think Obama has Hawaii sewn up in the bag at all.
There's not a very big African American community here.
& Hillary does well with Asians, Pacific Islanders as per Latino voters.
So let's just wait & see.
Everyone wrote her off after Iowa & look where's it's at.
After all this time, & Obama's convincing victories since Super Tuesday it's still deadlocked.
Common sense should mean Experience wins out over a mantra of change with no details.


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Comments History - show

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Member Comments
 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-15 @ 05:44:47
Plus Hillary won American Samoa - the other Polynesian territory.
So I'm feeling confident in Hawaii.
go go HIll!
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-17 @ 15:05:30
lolprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:12:31
Almost as funny as your prediction that Obama's going to win the Texas Latino vote.

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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:42:39
It's a shame this site does not update latest polling for Hawaii if any.

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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-18 @ 14:12:06
I'm not aware that there has been ANY polling in HI. Obama, however, grew up there, is multi ethnic as is the population there, and has shown his strentgh in caucases. Its an Obama slam dunk.

I think I just pointed out that in the ARG Texas poll, Obama was only a few points behind Clinton among Latinos. ARG, however, has not been a very reliable pollster this year. Obama has been gaining among Latinos (as he has among most groups).
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 05:08:03
I think the only states where Obama has supposedly been gaining ground amongst Latinos is in the Potamac primaries.

I really don't know about Hawaii, this could prove to be a shocker.
Although I think Clinton should have done a foray over there, every vote counts.
The biggest fault I would put on the Clinton campaign (apart from a raging bull impersonation by Bill in South Carolina) is the fact that they have given up on the little states.
You have to campaign everywhere & for that I give Obama credit - he certainly has been the better campaigner.

Honestly without any polls I don't think you can say Obama is a slam dunk just because he was born there.
Even with such a little vote American Samoa, & perhaps California are closer to the Hawaiian vote.
So don't be surprised for an "upset".

I think Wisconsin today is going to be very close.

But I know some of my past predictions have been wrong so ...
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 05:09:17
Also if the born there theory holds up than Clinton should have won Illinois.

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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 10:00:04
A candidate with a strong connection to a state has a leg up there. Clinton hasn't lived in Illinois for 35 years, while Obama has been there for 25 years, and in public office representing Illinois constituents for 11.

Obama spent a few years in California as well as NYC, but no one predicted those facts would get him too far. Likewise, Clinton spent a few years in Connecticutt, and went to college in Mass.

A major presidential candidate from Hawaii, though, is a bit of a novelty. I would be absolutely shocked if he did not win there, and by a sizable margin, too.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 21:12:12
How long did he actually spend in Hawaii?
He went to school there didn't he?
So I guess it was a bit.
Yep that should help him then I forgot about that, thought he was only born there.
Still I think it might be close there.
Are you ready for Wisconsin?
Polls were tightening.
Interesting.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 23:06:37
I began to write that he went to college there - he did not. His parents met while THEY were at the Univ. of Hawaii, and perhaps were still students there when Barack was born. He lived there until he was 6, then again from age 10 until he went to college in LA, then at Columbia.

Make that 9, soon to be 10 successive victories. Coverage of Clinton's speech (again not conceeding defeat) cut out to Obama's speech, which contained many policy particulars as well as a defense of hope. The MSNC commentators noted that McCain is using the same hope-bashing tactics that have failed for Clinton. I especially liked Obama's reference to having taught the contitution, he will uphold the constitution.

So on to March 4. Make or break time for Clinton, running even in Texas polls.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-01 @ 23:15:27
I'd say its time to change those "stong Clinton" states to tossups, and Vermont to at least lean Obama. At least you have Indiana right.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:23:44
It ain't over till it's over honey!
Perhaps a gust of change blowing tonight with the early results.
Clinton up in Ohio & poised for Texas.
Maybe the mood's changing & people are finally seeing through the smug upstart from Illinois & his incredibly over confident group of supporters.
Never write a Clinton off.
Anyway who knows.
I've been pessimistic for the last few weeks & couldn't even be bothered to update this map, haven't even been on here.
It would be great to see Hillary pull out some well deserved wins tonight.
Even if it's just to shut you guys up for a bit!!!
haha

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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-04 @ 21:27:28
Agreed.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:27:54
It really has been like a bad dream.
But after seeing you guys vote for W x 2 what can I say.
Your choices do seems fickle.
A strong woman with tonnes of experience & leadership versus an inspirational speaker with not much of a track record?
gee I dunno...
In my opinion & those of my friends there really is no contest between Hillary & Barack!
But that's just us.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-04 @ 21:33:06
A lot of the debate is what a win is. It's easy to look at the Ohio results or Texas and go "aha! Hillary won!".

But this isn't the case. The reality is the nomination is determined by who reaches 2025 delegates first. That is the one and only rule, a fact that cannot be denied.

Neither of them will numerically reach this on just pledged delegates before the convention. So who do the superdelegates side with -- and when do they do it?

That then becomes key to predicting who wins this race. I think that the obvious choice is that it will be the person with the most pledged delegates at the time of the convention. Of course, it's likely at this point that the person with the most pledged delegates is Obama. Hillary has, at very least, 130 pledged delegates as a deficit to overcome.

By winning Ohio and Texas primaries tonight at a 51-49 or 52-48 margin, she has failed to overcome this margin. The Texas caucuses will serve to offset and 'gain' Hillary made tonight.

In short, the winner of Ohio and Texas is from a mathematical point of view totally irrelevant. The Democratic party now faces a choice: Unify around a candidate or rip itself apart with indecision, handing the election to the Republicans.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:37:41
That's true.
But it's not crisis time yet.
The election is not till November & this thing can easily go through next month no problems what so ever.
This is why you guys should all just vote on 1 day in my opinion, hell make it 1 month if you must.
I know it's your process but it's ridiculous to drag the thing on over 2 years basically.
urgh.
As much as I love your politics it is exhausting.
Especially when all the coverage is on the Republicans - this is when I stop reading Time.
haha

Last Edit: 2008-03-04 @ 21:38:41
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-04 @ 21:48:37
Americans can't run an election worth a damn.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-04 @ 22:12:09
The votes are still being counted! Clinton has to win both Texas and Ohio to stem the tide! If she pulls it out, I'm afraid our beloved candidates will be tearing each other apart into June. If not, the supers start their migration to Obama tommorrow, and the race will be "all but" over.

True, who, she cannot overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates whatever happens tonight. She hasn't come this far for nothing, however. If she wins Ohio & Texas, she's gonna stay in and it'll get uglier.

It still looks like a split decision to me. If this holds, she'll try her damndest to stick around, but she will not have stemmed the tide.

USA: democracy at its finest!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:45:15
It's a fine start.
I'm just so glad not to see these completely ridiculous 60/40 & 70/30 results in favour of Obama.
He's not that good.
She's a fine candidate.
A strong candidate.
A viable candidate.
& whatever happens Hillary can hold her head high.
She's always been able to hold her head high.
She is an honorable person in my opinion.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:45:52
How scared must the Republicans feel about this unstoppable Democratic turn out?
It's inspiring.

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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:46:44
But seriously wrap this all up in a quicker timetable next time around.
1 month is enough.
2 maximum.
6 months or whatever it is plus the year before lead in time is over the top.

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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-04 @ 23:52:32
I agree that Hillary is an honorable person, a fine, strong, and viable candidate. There are yet many votes to be counted, in places like Cleveland and Houston. It looks tight in Texas. We may be at this into June.

Larry Sabato has a good plan in his book about a new constitution. Enact the rotating regional primary, with the first region to be drawn by lot, and each region voting during a month window - March - June. And two small states to be drawn by lot on Jan. 1 to vote in February. Therefore no more "permanent campaign" in Iowa. Having primaries over the course of a few months serves the purpose of thinning the field and allowing candidates to put together voting coalitions. But the year head start is totally unecessary, and its unfair to have the same states going first.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 00:23:09
Thats why it should have been winner take all delegate primaries like the republican system.


Last Edit: 2008-03-05 @ 00:23:35
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-05 @ 00:33:33
It's too much.
I think this could be a contributing factor to the often miserable turn outs in the general election.
People get over it.
It's voter fatigue.
Although maybe not this year as it has been so exciting.
At least on the Democratic side with 2 very strong & interesting candidates.
Obama spoke well tonight & I have to say more gracious.
Obviously Hillary need to psych up the troops & maybe herself!
Poor thing it's been a tough month.
She will win Pennsylvania I think - this has always been in her strong suit.
Viva Ohio!
What a great result!
Texas completely line ball - still both camps can claim some kudos here.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-05 @ 01:00:37
You want a system like the Republicans? No wonder you like Hillary, Liberalrocks :Pprediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 03:47:10
Well the Republicans will be glad to have my vote if she's not the nominee :Pprediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-05 @ 17:04:25
How about if she is Obama's running mate? Then you'll be happy, right??prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 17:38:03
Yes, better then having her lose it all if that were to happen. I dont see it but anythings possible.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-06 @ 00:33:34
I don't either, but I'm a fan of hypotheticals.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-06 @ 12:17:20
I actually think it's more likely than not. If this DOESN'T goto the convention it will go close. A ticket with the two of them is probably the only way to mend fences in what has become a brother-sister war.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-06 @ 16:00:28
Perhaps,prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 19:56:33
They should definitely run toghther as either camp will be extremely disappointed when they loose.
They definitely are the dream ticket & I think would be virtually unstoppable.
However in my opinion Clinton should be at the top of the ticket due to experience & age.
Obama still has youth on his side & will not be old at 54 after serving 2 terms as VP.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-08 @ 21:06:06
These aren't very rational reasons for why a candidate should win, demboy. I say this without intending offense.

The super delegates have to side with the people's choice (regardless of who that ultimately is) or risk ripping the party apart at its seams.

Last Edit: 2008-03-08 @ 21:06:40
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 23:32:59
I would hardly say experience is not a rational reason.

I don't care what anyone says nobody has convinced me that Obama is more experienced then Hillary.

Time recently compared their resumes & Hillary won hands down!

Let's see if Obama wins the popular vote by the end of it.
Don't forget PA is still to come & she is considerably ahead here.

It is so line ball it's not funny every way you look at it so the Super delegates should be able to support who they want.

It seems the Obama camp is running scared as they know Hillary has the edge with the Supers.

Anyway anthing can happen.

I still think they should run together, & the more this thing pans out the more this seems inevitable.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 04:54:05
The reason it isn't rational is because McCain can eat that argument for breakfast, as he has been in government for decades longer than Clinton. She also cannot credibly attack McCain on Iraq, as she also voted for the war.

Counting on the party establishment to pick you over the guy that won more votes, states, and pledged delegates than you because you think you deserve it more than he does is in no way, shape, or form a good argument for Hillary receiving the nomination. She needs a moral claim of some kind, one that doesn't sound as pompous as 'experience', where she might as well be saying "I've been waiting longer than you and I have a more important last name than you".
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 07:12:08
Well she certainly has been working longer than Obama.
In my opinion as conceited as it may be Obama is an overly ambitious upstart.
He needs to put the runs on the board.
He has not.
& again going on the Time article her resume was definitely up there with McCain's.
Obama was a long way back, but as you say so were many Presidents previoulsy.
As the current polls are proving McCain is not eating anyone for breakfast.
He is already looking tired & worn out.
I'm not writing him off, but at 71 he should be at the twilight of his career.
I would have liked to have seen Obama finish his first term in the Senate.
It's all been too much razzle dazzle & not much substance, that's what the papers are saying today even.


Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 07:13:18
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 16:18:48
Indeed, McCain is too old to be President.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 23:54:14
Mc Cain is younger now then when Reagan was leaving office.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 23:58:42
Still doesn't do it for me.
& as the campaign has gone on he has become increasingly more Conservative & less independent.

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President
P 2012 President 53/56 37/56 90/112 80.4% pie 1 150 489T760
P 2010 Senate 36/37 23/37 59/74 79.7% pie 5 1 63T456
P 2008 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 45 0 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 14/33 47/66 71.2% pie 5 1 204T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 21/52 58/104 55.8% pie 20 - 52T271
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 1 65T465
P 2004 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 9 3 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 312/334 203/334 515/668 77.1% pie


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