Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-15 Version:11

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	25
Edwards	0
Obama	21
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	17
Edwards	0
Obama	12
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	17

Analysis

I'm going to go out on a limb here & say the rot stops with Wisconsin & Hawaii.
I don't think Obama has Hawaii sewn up in the bag at all.
There's not a very big African American community here.
& Hillary does well with Asians, Pacific Islanders as per Latino voters.
So let's just wait & see.
Everyone wrote her off after Iowa & look where's it's at.
After all this time, & Obama's convincing victories since Super Tuesday it's still deadlocked.
Common sense should mean Experience wins out over a mantra of change with no details.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 19

Fantastic result in West Virginia.
Look for a similar result in Kentucky!
GO HRC!
Would love to see her roll him in Oregon!
I think she may even have a chance in South Dakota after what I've been reading in the local press there.
Check out www.JustHillary.com for all your latest Hill news!

Version: 18

We can still be Respectful People!

Version: 17

Final weeks!
Go Hillary!
If you must go out, go out with a bang!
Big wins in West Virginia, & Kentucky, & probably Puerto Rico.
I think Orgeon could still be a possibility if finances hold up.

Version: 16

I'm going to go out there on a limb & predict Hillary in NC in a squeaker -1 to 4 points!
Hillary will win Indiana by 6 to 9 points+.
& go on for massive wins in Kentucky & West Virginia.
I have put Montana & South Dakota on the Obama side however I believe Hillary could turn things around here also especially in Montana.

Version: 15

Hillary by 9 to 12 points today in PA.
Hopefully more.
Fingers crossed.
Go MS Rodham Clinton!

Version: 14

After Obama's stupid comments re small town voters today I think PA is firming even further against him.
Should also consolidate Indiana, & turn things around in NC.
The more Obama gets examined the more he is found wanting.
He is very green, very inexperienced.
At least with Hillary you know where she stands, she has been vetted, & there's not much more they could find in her closet.
Obama is a big unknown.

Version: 13

Well on the latest opinion polls it looks like Indiana is going to go the way of it's neighbours to the East & North rather than to it's more famous senator form the West.
However it looks like NC is possibly slipping away.
Pennsylvania should still deliver a fairly comfortable victory the lady Senator from New York.
Go Hill!

Version: 12

Viva Ohio!

Version: 11

Version: 10

It's going to be a very interesting convention isn't it?

Version: 9

Hoping for a closer finish in Virginia, & Maryland today!
Go Hill!

Version: 8

Hoping for a Hillary victory in Maine today!
Still confident for Wisconsin.
She looks good in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, & Vermont.
Think she can win Pennsylvania,.
Should be strong in West Vriginia, & Kentucky.
Will sweep Puerto Rico.
& am confident for North Carolina, & Guam.

Obama picks up DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, & Oregon.

Version: 7

Yes at the moment the momentum is with Obama however Hillary is not done yet, & can still win.
I believe her strengths coming up are Maine, Ohio, & Texas.
I think she can squeak out wins in both Washington, & Wisconsin, & perhaps Hawaii, even though Obama was born there.
It's a very diverse state, where a woman should do well.
Either way the delegates are still going to be close until Ohio, & Texas, where she will do very well I believe.
Interesting that Obama does not want to debate much, as she is a stronger debater in my opinion as Ms C is more articulate & of course has more plans.
It's experience versus change.
But let's face it's going to be change regardless as it won't be Bush, so in my opinion that argument is voided somewhat.

Version: 6

After Super Tuesday I've predicted a few more wins for Obama but I think Hillary will still prevail.
There's got to be substance people not just fluff.
For the record also I had predicted Hillary to win Florida, Nevada, & Michigan before my previous entry stuffed up & had to do again.
I had not entered before Iowa or New Hampshire, but I thought Hillary would win Iowa, & then after that shock & the polls I thought she would loose New Hampshire.

Version: 5

Nail biting.

Last time before results.
I know I will stop predictions now.

I think Hillary will hold on in California, Connecticut, & Colorado - that's all C for Clinton!

However I think she will just loose in Missouri, Kansas (more comfortably for Obama), & Minnesota unfortunately - although there's been no polling data on this site for Minnesota which I think is just weird.

I also think the polling data for New Mexico is plain wrong, I can't see how Obama is ahead in such a heavily Latino state.
If he is it's on 1 issue only & that's drivers licenses.

The only states I think Obama has a lock on is Georgia & Illinois obviously.

Go Ms Clinton!

Version: 4

It's getting tighter unfortunately.
Go Hill!

Version: 3

Hillary to win big on Super Tuesday with a few offsets to Obama.
She outperformed in a very good debate by both.
Nice to see the nastiness put aside even though there were several vailed swipes by Obama.

Version: 2

I've had to regenerate this as last maps had gone offline for some reason...
So I've given Obama a few more states to reflect the possible tightening up of the race.
However I think Edwards departure will mean more votes for Hillary, as they seemed to have been splitting the votes in some areas - eg South Carolina.
I've tentatively called Hawaii for Obama only because of the home grown factor, however this is still a strong possibility for Hillary.
Hoping for a big win for Hillary on Super Tuesday!
Go Girl!!!
Last thing America needs at the moment is another cocky young upstart running the country!
It's time for a woman.

Version: 1

I think Hillary will trounce the very inexperienced & over ambitious Barack Obama, after a minor setback in South Carolina, which never votes Democrat in the general election anyway.

Version History

Member Comments

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-15 @ 05:44:47
Plus Hillary won American Samoa - the other Polynesian territory. So I'm feeling confident in Hawaii. go go HIll!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-17 @ 15:05:30
lol

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:12:31
Almost as funny as your prediction that Obama's going to win the Texas Latino vote.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-18 @ 06:42:39
It's a shame this site does not update latest polling for Hawaii if any.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-18 @ 14:12:06
I'm not aware that there has been ANY polling in HI. Obama, however, grew up there, is multi ethnic as is the population there, and has shown his strentgh in caucases. Its an Obama slam dunk. I think I just pointed out that in the ARG Texas poll, Obama was only a few points behind Clinton among Latinos. ARG, however, has not been a very reliable pollster this year. Obama has been gaining among Latinos (as he has among most groups).

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 05:08:03
I think the only states where Obama has supposedly been gaining ground amongst Latinos is in the Potamac primaries. I really don't know about Hawaii, this could prove to be a shocker. Although I think Clinton should have done a foray over there, every vote counts. The biggest fault I would put on the Clinton campaign (apart from a raging bull impersonation by Bill in South Carolina) is the fact that they have given up on the little states. You have to campaign everywhere & for that I give Obama credit - he certainly has been the better campaigner. Honestly without any polls I don't think you can say Obama is a slam dunk just because he was born there. Even with such a little vote American Samoa, & perhaps California are closer to the Hawaiian vote. So don't be surprised for an "upset". I think Wisconsin today is going to be very close. But I know some of my past predictions have been wrong so ...

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 05:09:17
Also if the born there theory holds up than Clinton should have won Illinois.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 10:00:04
A candidate with a strong connection to a state has a leg up there. Clinton hasn't lived in Illinois for 35 years, while Obama has been there for 25 years, and in public office representing Illinois constituents for 11. Obama spent a few years in California as well as NYC, but no one predicted those facts would get him too far. Likewise, Clinton spent a few years in Connecticutt, and went to college in Mass. A major presidential candidate from Hawaii, though, is a bit of a novelty. I would be absolutely shocked if he did not win there, and by a sizable margin, too.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-02-19 @ 21:12:12
How long did he actually spend in Hawaii? He went to school there didn't he? So I guess it was a bit. Yep that should help him then I forgot about that, thought he was only born there. Still I think it might be close there. Are you ready for Wisconsin? Polls were tightening. Interesting.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-19 @ 23:06:37
I began to write that he went to college there - he did not. His parents met while THEY were at the Univ. of Hawaii, and perhaps were still students there when Barack was born. He lived there until he was 6, then again from age 10 until he went to college in LA, then at Columbia. Make that 9, soon to be 10 successive victories. Coverage of Clinton's speech (again not conceeding defeat) cut out to Obama's speech, which contained many policy particulars as well as a defense of hope. The MSNC commentators noted that McCain is using the same hope-bashing tactics that have failed for Clinton. I especially liked Obama's reference to having taught the contitution, he will uphold the constitution. So on to March 4. Make or break time for Clinton, running even in Texas polls.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-01 @ 23:15:27
I'd say its time to change those "stong Clinton" states to tossups, and Vermont to at least lean Obama. At least you have Indiana right.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:23:44
It ain't over till it's over honey! Perhaps a gust of change blowing tonight with the early results. Clinton up in Ohio & poised for Texas. Maybe the mood's changing & people are finally seeing through the smug upstart from Illinois & his incredibly over confident group of supporters. Never write a Clinton off. Anyway who knows. I've been pessimistic for the last few weeks & couldn't even be bothered to update this map, haven't even been on here. It would be great to see Hillary pull out some well deserved wins tonight. Even if it's just to shut you guys up for a bit!!! haha

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-04 @ 21:27:28
Agreed.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:27:54
It really has been like a bad dream. But after seeing you guys vote for W x 2 what can I say. Your choices do seems fickle. A strong woman with tonnes of experience & leadership versus an inspirational speaker with not much of a track record? gee I dunno... In my opinion & those of my friends there really is no contest between Hillary & Barack! But that's just us.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-04 @ 21:33:06
A lot of the debate is what a win is. It's easy to look at the Ohio results or Texas and go "aha! Hillary won!". But this isn't the case. The reality is the nomination is determined by who reaches 2025 delegates first. That is the one and only rule, a fact that cannot be denied. Neither of them will numerically reach this on just pledged delegates before the convention. So who do the superdelegates side with -- and when do they do it? That then becomes key to predicting who wins this race. I think that the obvious choice is that it will be the person with the most pledged delegates at the time of the convention. Of course, it's likely at this point that the person with the most pledged delegates is Obama. Hillary has, at very least, 130 pledged delegates as a deficit to overcome. By winning Ohio and Texas primaries tonight at a 51-49 or 52-48 margin, she has failed to overcome this margin. The Texas caucuses will serve to offset and 'gain' Hillary made tonight. In short, the winner of Ohio and Texas is from a mathematical point of view totally irrelevant. The Democratic party now faces a choice: Unify around a candidate or rip itself apart with indecision, handing the election to the Republicans.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 21:37:41
That's true. But it's not crisis time yet. The election is not till November & this thing can easily go through next month no problems what so ever. This is why you guys should all just vote on 1 day in my opinion, hell make it 1 month if you must. I know it's your process but it's ridiculous to drag the thing on over 2 years basically. urgh. As much as I love your politics it is exhausting. Especially when all the coverage is on the Republicans - this is when I stop reading Time. haha Last Edit: 2008-03-04 @ 21:38:41

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-04 @ 21:48:37
Americans can't run an election worth a damn.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-04 @ 22:12:09
The votes are still being counted! Clinton has to win both Texas and Ohio to stem the tide! If she pulls it out, I'm afraid our beloved candidates will be tearing each other apart into June. If not, the supers start their migration to Obama tommorrow, and the race will be "all but" over. True, who, she cannot overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates whatever happens tonight. She hasn't come this far for nothing, however. If she wins Ohio & Texas, she's gonna stay in and it'll get uglier. It still looks like a split decision to me. If this holds, she'll try her damndest to stick around, but she will not have stemmed the tide. USA: democracy at its finest!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:45:15
It's a fine start. I'm just so glad not to see these completely ridiculous 60/40 & 70/30 results in favour of Obama. He's not that good. She's a fine candidate. A strong candidate. A viable candidate. & whatever happens Hillary can hold her head high. She's always been able to hold her head high. She is an honorable person in my opinion.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:45:52
How scared must the Republicans feel about this unstoppable Democratic turn out? It's inspiring.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-04 @ 22:46:44
But seriously wrap this all up in a quicker timetable next time around. 1 month is enough. 2 maximum. 6 months or whatever it is plus the year before lead in time is over the top.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-04 @ 23:52:32
I agree that Hillary is an honorable person, a fine, strong, and viable candidate. There are yet many votes to be counted, in places like Cleveland and Houston. It looks tight in Texas. We may be at this into June. Larry Sabato has a good plan in his book about a new constitution. Enact the rotating regional primary, with the first region to be drawn by lot, and each region voting during a month window - March - June. And two small states to be drawn by lot on Jan. 1 to vote in February. Therefore no more "permanent campaign" in Iowa. Having primaries over the course of a few months serves the purpose of thinning the field and allowing candidates to put together voting coalitions. But the year head start is totally unecessary, and its unfair to have the same states going first.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 00:23:09
Thats why it should have been winner take all delegate primaries like the republican system. Last Edit: 2008-03-05 @ 00:23:35

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-05 @ 00:33:33
It's too much. I think this could be a contributing factor to the often miserable turn outs in the general election. People get over it. It's voter fatigue. Although maybe not this year as it has been so exciting. At least on the Democratic side with 2 very strong & interesting candidates. Obama spoke well tonight & I have to say more gracious. Obviously Hillary need to psych up the troops & maybe herself! Poor thing it's been a tough month. She will win Pennsylvania I think - this has always been in her strong suit. Viva Ohio! What a great result! Texas completely line ball - still both camps can claim some kudos here.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-05 @ 01:00:37
You want a system like the Republicans? No wonder you like Hillary, Liberalrocks :P

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 03:47:10
Well the Republicans will be glad to have my vote if she's not the nominee :P

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-05 @ 17:04:25
How about if she is Obama's running mate? Then you'll be happy, right??

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-05 @ 17:38:03
Yes, better then having her lose it all if that were to happen. I dont see it but anythings possible.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-06 @ 00:33:34
I don't either, but I'm a fan of hypotheticals.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-06 @ 12:17:20
I actually think it's more likely than not. If this DOESN'T goto the convention it will go close. A ticket with the two of them is probably the only way to mend fences in what has become a brother-sister war.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-06 @ 16:00:28
Perhaps,

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 19:56:33
They should definitely run toghther as either camp will be extremely disappointed when they loose. They definitely are the dream ticket & I think would be virtually unstoppable. However in my opinion Clinton should be at the top of the ticket due to experience & age. Obama still has youth on his side & will not be old at 54 after serving 2 terms as VP.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-08 @ 21:06:06
These aren't very rational reasons for why a candidate should win, demboy. I say this without intending offense. The super delegates have to side with the people's choice (regardless of who that ultimately is) or risk ripping the party apart at its seams. Last Edit: 2008-03-08 @ 21:06:40

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-08 @ 23:32:59
I would hardly say experience is not a rational reason. I don't care what anyone says nobody has convinced me that Obama is more experienced then Hillary. Time recently compared their resumes & Hillary won hands down! Let's see if Obama wins the popular vote by the end of it. Don't forget PA is still to come & she is considerably ahead here. It is so line ball it's not funny every way you look at it so the Super delegates should be able to support who they want. It seems the Obama camp is running scared as they know Hillary has the edge with the Supers. Anyway anthing can happen. I still think they should run together, & the more this thing pans out the more this seems inevitable.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 04:54:05
The reason it isn't rational is because McCain can eat that argument for breakfast, as he has been in government for decades longer than Clinton. She also cannot credibly attack McCain on Iraq, as she also voted for the war. Counting on the party establishment to pick you over the guy that won more votes, states, and pledged delegates than you because you think you deserve it more than he does is in no way, shape, or form a good argument for Hillary receiving the nomination. She needs a moral claim of some kind, one that doesn't sound as pompous as 'experience', where she might as well be saying "I've been waiting longer than you and I have a more important last name than you".

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 07:12:08
Well she certainly has been working longer than Obama. In my opinion as conceited as it may be Obama is an overly ambitious upstart. He needs to put the runs on the board. He has not. & again going on the Time article her resume was definitely up there with McCain's. Obama was a long way back, but as you say so were many Presidents previoulsy. As the current polls are proving McCain is not eating anyone for breakfast. He is already looking tired & worn out. I'm not writing him off, but at 71 he should be at the twilight of his career. I would have liked to have seen Obama finish his first term in the Senate. It's all been too much razzle dazzle & not much substance, that's what the papers are saying today even. Last Edit: 2008-03-09 @ 07:13:18

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-09 @ 16:18:48
Indeed, McCain is too old to be President.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-09 @ 23:54:14
Mc Cain is younger now then when Reagan was leaving office.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-09 @ 23:58:42
Still doesn't do it for me. & as the campaign has gone on he has become increasingly more Conservative & less independent.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	2	147	480	T	684
2016 President
2012 President	53/56	37/56	90/112	80.4%	1	150	489	T	760
2010 Senate	36/37	23/37	59/74	79.7%	5	1	63	T	456
2008 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	45	0	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	14/33	47/66	71.2%	5	1	204	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	21/52	58/104	55.8%	20	-	52	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	1	1	65	T	465
2004 President	54/56	35/56	89/112	79.5%	9	3	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	365/390	238/390	603/780	77.3%

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