PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - D Adams (R-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-08 Version:11

Prediction Map
D Adams MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
D Adams MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton23
 
Edwards0
 
Obama29
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton14
 
Edwards0
 
Obama22
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup16
 

Analysis

Upcoming states:

WYOMING: It's a caucus, which makes it favorable to Obama, and there there is only one caucus location per county, like Idaho where Obama won with his best margin yet. Obama will win handily, probably with over 60%, but is unlikely to reach Idaho-level heights because Clinton is actually doing an effort here.

MISSISSIPPI: Voting patterns will be very, very ugly here. Obama will win a pretty strong victory, though if more independents and Republicans participate he could get a slightly smaller margin of victory than in other Deep South states.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Olawakandi (D-CA) 2008-03-08 @ 12:43:35
I think in NW Indiana where blacks are dominate will help Obama win the state.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-08 @ 18:22:43
Obama has a better organization here, I can tell you that for sure. An Indiana representative lead the charge for the Bill Clinton impeachment. There is no great love for the Clintons in this state, even among some hardcore Democrats I know.

From what I suspect, Obama will easily carry Indiana.
prediction Map

 By: D Adams (R-FL) 2008-03-11 @ 17:44:13
Demographically at least Indiana appears better suited for Clinton, but of course that can easily change. Organization means little in primaries, as opposed to caucuses. After some polls get out we will have a better picture of how Indiana will look like. prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 19:51:00
I found one poll, reliability is somewhat questionable but I'd say it is around what I expect. There are a *lot* of people in this state on both sides of the aisle that really don't like the Clintons.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/02/25/howey-gauge-poll-obama-leads-hillary-by-15/

prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 30/37 20/37 50/74 67.6% pie 10 88 221T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 9 88 91T312
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 19 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 8 1 48T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 4 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 26/52 73/104 70.2% pie 14 - 5T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 44/49 26/49 70/98 71.4% pie 17 - 2235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 73 1T167
Aggregate Predictions 251/278 169/278 420/556 75.5% pie


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