PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - D Adams (R-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-08 Version:11

Prediction Map
D Adams MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
D Adams MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton23
 
Edwards0
 
Obama29
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton14
 
Edwards0
 
Obama22
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup16
 

Analysis

Upcoming states:

WYOMING: It's a caucus, which makes it favorable to Obama, and there there is only one caucus location per county, like Idaho where Obama won with his best margin yet. Obama will win handily, probably with over 60%, but is unlikely to reach Idaho-level heights because Clinton is actually doing an effort here.

MISSISSIPPI: Voting patterns will be very, very ugly here. Obama will win a pretty strong victory, though if more independents and Republicans participate he could get a slightly smaller margin of victory than in other Deep South states.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 13

Upcoming races:

PENNSYLVANIA: Safe Clinton. However, recent polling shows Clinton slipping, her lead becoming steadily smaller. Only a few weeks ago it seemed Clinton could triumph with double-digit margins, but now three polls have Clinton statistically tied with Obama. She will win with margins in the high single digits, perhaps around the lines of 54-44; a clear victory, not the blowout she needs.

GUAM: Clinton won the American Samoa caucuses 57-42, which could point to a Clinton victory. Although both are Pacific island territories, it cannot be known whether Guam's results would mirror those of American Samoa.

INDIANA: Demographically, this state seems to lean Clinton, particularly in the southern parts. Recent polling does show a slim Clinton lead, and it appears likely that she will win with a singl-digit margin, perhaps around 5%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Safe Obama. Polls have consistently shown him with high leads and he can archieve a double-digit margin.

WEST VIRGINIA: Extremely safe Clinton territory. Her working-class appeal will give her a huge margin of victory here. Looking at the results of counties bordering West Virginia, she could even break 70%.


Version: 12

Upcoming races:

PENNSYLVANIA: Growingly more strongly Clinton as the election looms closer. Obama no longer has a chance, with the Rendell machine behind Clinton and the Wright scandal. The only counties Obama could win are the Philadelphia are and perhaps Centre County (because of Penn State), but he looks headed for a big defeat.

INDIANA: Demographically, I think this state is better suited for Clinton. However, Obama does have a strong organization and the only poll to come out of this state has him at the lead. However, the poll does not seem very reliable and organization works better in caucuses, and I suspect the Wright scandal hurt Obama here. It's a tossup, although I have a feeling Clinton will win.

NORTH CAROLINA: Used to lean Obama, but the Wright scandal has made the state close, at least according to the latest PPP poll. I will label it a tossup until further polling.


Version: 11

Upcoming states:

WYOMING: It's a caucus, which makes it favorable to Obama, and there there is only one caucus location per county, like Idaho where Obama won with his best margin yet. Obama will win handily, probably with over 60%, but is unlikely to reach Idaho-level heights because Clinton is actually doing an effort here.

MISSISSIPPI: Voting patterns will be very, very ugly here. Obama will win a pretty strong victory, though if more independents and Republicans participate he could get a slightly smaller margin of victory than in other Deep South states.


Version: 10

Super Tuesday II Predictions:

OHIO: Obama is experiencing a surge and the race has gone from lean Clinton to tossup. I don't think that Obama's surge will be powerful enough to drive him to victory, however. 51-48 Clinton.

TEXAS: This appears to have become an extremely close race with polls essentially tied. I still predict an extremely close Clinton victory, say 50-49. It is definitely possible that Obama wins the most delegates despite a popular vote Clinton victory.

RHODE ISLAND: Demographically and extrapolating from the MA results, favorable to Clinton. The recent polls support this assumption. Around 55-44 Clinton.

VERMONT: This state is very favorable to Obama and will balance out Clinton's RI victory. Obama will win a solid 58-41 victory.


Version: 9

Hillary do better in March but in the end she and Obama will have to agree to some kind of deal to avoid a convention fight.


Version: 8

Obama will easily win the Cheseapeake Primary, but Hillary will not drop out. She will win big in March but in the end both of them will have to agree to some kind of deal to avoid a convention fight.


Version: 7

There is no end in sight to the Democratic nomination. Super Duper Tuesday was a draw and neither candidate has a clear lead in the delegate count.

Barack Obama looks poised to do well this Saturday, with WA, LA, and NE looking good for him. However, Clinton will likely fight back and again no one will have a lead with the delegates. Obama will "win" again in the Chesapeake Primary, particularly in Maryland and DC.

March looks significantly better for Hillary. She can probably win TX, IN, OH, and WV easily. After loosing these contests, to avoid giving the Republicans more momentum, and to avoid a fight in the convention itself, I think Obama will drop out. Clinton wins the delegates from the last few contests and wins the nomination.


Version: 6

Super Duper Tuesday will be a giant battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but is unlikely to be the final one.

State by state:
ALABAMA: Polls show this is one of the closest 2/5 races. It will all depend on the turnout of black vs. white voters, and the differences between this two groups will probably be very ugly. Enthusiasm from blacks for Obama will, I think, give him an edge.

ALASKA: A very anti-establishment state (Kucinich won second place in 2004), which will allow Obama to triumph. Gravel could do unusually well, but I doubt he will get second place.

AMERICAN SAMOA: This eastern territory will have a caucus on Tuesday, which awards half-delegates. There is too much lack of information to make a good prediction, but I think Hillary Clinton will probably win the more delegates or it will be exactly tied delegate-wise.

ARIZONA: A close race, although Clinton has a small lead. I think the Hispanic vote will be enough to put her over the top.

ARKANSAS: Safe Clinton. She and Bill ruled the state for numerous years, and there aren't enough blacks to tip the state.

CALIFORNIA: Has gotten progressively closer as we near Super Tuesday. I predict an extremely close race, particularly in the delegate race, but Hillary will probably obtain a close victory.

COLORADO: Leans Obama, although since it's a caucus predicting this state is particularly difficult.

CONNECTICUT: Polls lately point to an Obama advantage. The universities and highly-educated population will drive him to victory.

DEMOCRATS ABROAD: Probably a big Obama victory.

DELAWARE: Will be close, but I think Obama is favored. No good polls.

GEORGIA: The black voters are enough to give Obama a safe victory.

IDAHO: Obama did attract a crowd of 15,000, pretty big considering how many Democrats there are here. The latte liberals will give Obama a huge victory.

ILLINOIS: Obama landslide.

KANSAS: The tiny Democratic population will be easily swayed by Sebelius' endorsement of Obama.

MASSACHUSETTS: Demographics favor Hillary, but the endorsements of Deval Patrick, John Kerry, and most importantly the Kennedys will make this extremely close. I still think Clinton will win, but it's a tossup.

MINNESOTA: No idea. The one poll favors Hillary, but it's a caucus so polling is difficult.

MISSOURI: Tossup, although Clinton has an edge in the polls.

NEW JERSEY: Will be rather close, although Clinton has an advantage in the polls.

NEW MEXICO: Hispanics will probably give Clinton a victory, but it will be close.

NEW YORK: Safe Clinton, although NYC will probably go for Obama giving him a large amount of delegates.

NORTH DAKOTA: Tossup.

OKLAHOMA: Polling gives Clinton a large advantage. A Southern state with not enough blacks to give Obama a chance.

TENNESSEE: Demographics favor Hillary.

UTAH: Since the small amount of Democrats are made up largely of latte liberals, safe Obama.


Version: 5

Super Duper Tuesday will be a giant battle between Obama and Clinton. She has victory assured in NY, NJ, NM, and AK, and has a lead in AZ and OK. Massacusetts would originally have been a Clinton-leaning state, but this has changed with the Kerry and Kennedy endorsements of Obama. Obama, on the other hand, only has a secured victory in his home state of IL. He has a lead, however, in states with a large black population such as GA, and in some Western states. Clinton will win more states and more delegates in this day, including an important victory in California.

Clinton now has victory assured. Obama eventually drops out and Clinton goes on to loose the general election.


Version: 4

I have been mostly wrong on my past Democratic predictions, but I'll give it a try again.

Florida, which has zero delegates, will most likely go to Clinton, as most polling shows. I predict she will win with 52% of the vote, with around 30% for Obama and 15% for Edwards, with the remainder scattered.

Super Duper Tuesday will be a giant battle between Obama and Clinton. She has victory assured in NY, NJ, NM, and AK, and has a lead in CT, AZ, CA, and OK. Massacusetts would originally have been a Clinton-leaning state, but this has changed with the Kerry and Kennedy endorsements of Obama. Obama, on the other hand, only has a secured victory in his home state of IL. He has a lead, however, in states with a large black population such as GA and AL, and in some Western states. Clinton will win more states and more delegates in this day, including an important victory in California.

Clinton now has victory assured. Obama and Edwards eventually drop out and Clinton goes on to loose the general election.


Version: 2

My prediction that the Obama bubble would burst and Hillary Clinton would get an easy victory was completely off. Obama's bubble not only hasn't burst, but his lead has expanded to the point where I think he is actually the likeliest nominee of the Democratic Party.

The Iowa caucus result's repercussions were huge, not only in New Hampshire but nationally. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows Clinton's lead at the national level diminishing rapidly. All polls point to an Obama win in New Hampshire. I predict his victory will be with 38% of the vote, followed by Clinton at 33%, Edwards at 20%, and Richardson at 6%. HOPEFULLY Richardson will finally drop out after NH.

With his IA and NH victories, Obama looks poised to win the rest of the January primaries and caucuses. Clinton will score a large win in Michigan simply because she's the only name in the ballot. Given this and the fact that MI has been stripped of all its delegates, Clinton's victory will be ignored and will not dent Obama's momentum.

Obama will probably win the Nevada caucus, although the lack of many polls and the fact that it's a caucus makes it hard to predict by what margin. He will then score another big in South Carolina although again the lack of post-Iowa polls makes it hard to predict the margin.

Despite her debilitating defeats, Clinton's machine will not be wiped out until Super Duper Tuesday. Edwards will probably try to last for as much as possible, despite scoring no wins. Clinton will probably concentrate on California, which has enough delegates to perhaps even out with Obama. However, I think this will fail and that Obama will win CA along with the South and the West. Clinton will only win some Northeastern states and will drop out after her defeat.

Obama will therefore probably win the Democratic nomination.


Version: 1

Despite recent falls in the polls, I still think Hillary Clinton will likely win the Democratic nomination. The Obama bubble is already bursting and won't survive the first week of January.

There is basically a three-way tie now in Iowa. However, Clinton's superior organization and Obama's reliance on the unreliable youth vote will put Hillary over the top. The results will probably be along the lines of 28% Clinton, 27% Edwards, 26% Obama, 6% Richardson, 5% Biden. Dodd will probably drop out immediately after Iowa.

With a third place finish in Iowa, Obama is basically finished, although I expect he'll try to last until Super Duper Tuesday. New Hampshire will result in another Clinton victory, with 33% for her, 27% for Obama, 23% Edwards, 5% Richardson, and 2% Biden.

Clinton will continue on to easily win Michigan and Nevada. In South Carolina, she will face another challenge, but will overcome it with 29% Clinton, 27% Obama, 17% Edwards, 5% Biden, and 2% Richardson.

I think Biden and Richardson will drop out before Super Duper Tuesday after these poor showings. On February 5, Clinton will win big in all the states except for Illinois, which will go for their senator Obama. After this great Clinton victory, Edwards and Obama will drop out. In the last states, Clinton will only face minor opposition from Kucinich and maybe Gravel. Her nomination is ensured and she goes on to the general election, where hopefully she will loose.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2008-03-08 @ 12:43:35
I think in NW Indiana where blacks are dominate will help Obama win the state.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-08 @ 18:22:43
Obama has a better organization here, I can tell you that for sure. An Indiana representative lead the charge for the Bill Clinton impeachment. There is no great love for the Clintons in this state, even among some hardcore Democrats I know.

From what I suspect, Obama will easily carry Indiana.
prediction Map

 By: D Adams (R-FL) 2008-03-11 @ 17:44:13
Demographically at least Indiana appears better suited for Clinton, but of course that can easily change. Organization means little in primaries, as opposed to caucuses. After some polls get out we will have a better picture of how Indiana will look like. prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 19:51:00
I found one poll, reliability is somewhat questionable but I'd say it is around what I expect. There are a *lot* of people in this state on both sides of the aisle that really don't like the Clintons.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/02/25/howey-gauge-poll-obama-leads-hillary-by-15/

prediction Map


User's Predictions

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P 2010 Senate 30/37 20/37 50/74 67.6% pie 10 88 221T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 9 88 91T312
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 19 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 8 1 48T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 4 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 26/52 73/104 70.2% pie 14 - 5T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 44/49 26/49 70/98 71.4% pie 17 - 2235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 73 1T167
Aggregate Predictions 251/278 169/278 420/556 75.5% pie


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