PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-04-02 Version:18

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |


Just a few adjustments in continuing struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama that is the Democratic primay. I think Obama will be the nominee but knowing the Clintons as I do, Hillary has nothing left to loose. She'll fight this thing out all the way to the convention. I'm sure of it. Of course Obama will still be the nominee but she won't make it easy. Hillary seems like she'd rather burn the party to the ground than give up the nomination.

Right now the only state I'm really on the fence with is Indiana. Pennslyvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Peuto Rico are Hillaryland. Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana belong to Obama. The question now is, what will Indiana do. Obama is strong in the cities and college towns. Hillary is good in the rural areas and with moderate and blue collar Democrats. Both Ohio and Illionis have an influence. Which way will it break? I'll predict that after I see how big Hillary's win is in Pennslyvania.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 17:10:12
This map is incorrect.

Because my own opinion can be loosely equated with that of God. And God can't be wrong.


If you won't take my word, just ask james.

Last Edit: 2008-04-02 @ 17:10:43
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-02 @ 18:30:58
LOL who Lord even here James's incorrection plague sperads! Very funny whoblitzell I like it. Hey as a native of Indiana can you give me any insight into the race there? It is the one state I just can't seem to place for Obama or Hillary.

Last Edit: 2008-04-02 @ 18:31:16
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-02 @ 18:50:11
CR There is three polls on indiana in the polling section of the site, It may be too soon to gauge but Obama is not running away with the state as of yet. Even though he has been crowned the perspective nominee!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 21:57:49
Normally I would say Obama, but I'm not sure with Operation Chaos 'independents' voting in the primary, if you get what I mean.

There are some pretty nazi ballot laws here too. IDs are mandatory at the polls in all precincts now with proof of residence if you are challenged.

Which, of course, the voters will be. This is going to be a *really* ugly fight if things get close. I suspect it will be close.
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 21:58:35
Your map is still incorrect though. That is the sentence of God.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-02 @ 23:39:36
Great then our maps can be incorrect together as Duke of St Louis James has decreed, lol! In any case thanks for the insight into Indiana. I guess we have to wait and see what happens in PA first. I have not heard the orders from the southern command about what to do in Operation Chaos in Indiana. We can't let Hillary get too far ahead, just enough to stay in the race.

What I can tell you is that according to the orders there are a lot of really important down state GOP ballot issues in North Carolina. That state has therefore been exempted from Operation Chaos so I suspect an Obama win. Pennslyvania is to vote for Hillary. Indiana and the others have yet to be decided.

However, I'll keep you posted....
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-03 @ 13:13:17
I'm probably the only liberal that listens to Rush in this state :Oprediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-03 @ 22:19:51
Oh common its Indiana I'm sure there are a few others. lol, I know the Democrats listen to him because they always talk about what he says!prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-05 @ 23:14:31
I can't stand his BS.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-06 @ 00:23:31
I've actually been enjoying some Fox News - dare I say it.
Despite their Republican bias it can be interesting & funny.
It's always good to know what the other side is thinking even if it is warped.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-06 @ 22:57:38
That's how I feel when I watch CNN!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-07 @ 00:45:21
FOX is the only place I can get objective coverage of the Democratic race... and Limbaugh.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-07 @ 07:47:01
I like the O'Reilly factor.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-07 @ 07:53:27
PS I think your latest map is pretty much on the money.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-07 @ 09:26:22
Ah thanks demboy, I'll make a few updates after Pennslyvania. I think Hillary will take it somewhere in the mid-50% range. So after that I'll make decisions on the other states. prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-07 @ 15:47:43
I'm not sure about that anymore, CR. The wheels seem to be coming off the bus latelyprediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-07 @ 19:13:55
Yeah but the demographics and the state party play to her advantage. Plus operation chaos is in it to see that Hillary does win in Pennslyvania. Got to give her just enough to get her to the convention. The way things seem to be shaping up are that Obama will carry North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Hillary will take Pennslyvania, Kentucky, Peuto Rico, West Virginia, and maybe Indiana. To be honest your home state is too hard to call right now. We'll have to see what goes down in Pennslyvania. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-13 @ 02:07:09
I know the issue has probably died down but I still think Obama has done himself an enormous amount of damage in the white community by supporting his activist Pastor.
He may not be answerable for the things he says but as Hillary said you can choose the church you go to.
As Joe Klein in Time said - fancy subjecting his daughters to that sort of hate.
It's certainly made alot of people skeptical.
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-13 @ 02:08:58
Either that or he really didn't go there that often.
I'd like to think that was the answer.
He should have repudiated him entirely.
I also don't think he needed to bring his Grandmother into it.
She would have said those things in confidence no doubt & for Obama to tell the whole world is a betrayal in my opinion.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-13 @ 18:58:53
His latest comments on small town people in the Midwest only seeking God and guns based on being bitter about their lives won't help him either. We'll see what both and Hillary do in Pennslyvania. By that I pretty much mean how large a win Hillary gets. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-14 @ 00:36:23
Although I see what he was trying to say, pretty risky stuff especially in America.
I can't wait to see the latest opinion polls for PA - I think whatever gains he's made will be reversed.
PA should be a bigger win for Hillary than Ohio.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-14 @ 21:41:51
I think an elist message, or even one that sounds elist, will really turn off large parts of the electorate in the Midwest and Pennslyvania. I'm not sure Obama did himself any favors in Pennslyvania and Indiana. Now he doesn't need those states to win the nomination but I still think it was an unwise move. prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-14 @ 23:16:54
Absolutely ! Republicans will run with the old Dukakis playbook and he actually appears to be giving them advanced strategy.

Where's Lee Atwater when you need him? LOL
The old dirty RAT,


Last Edit: 2008-04-15 @ 01:00:47
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-15 @ 07:29:24
Latest polls are out on this site!
PA +20 for Hillary
& IN + 16 for HRC!
Go Hillary!
Hopefully this trend will continue, which I think it will.
But in relation to your previous comment CR I've always got an elitist vibe from Obama & some of his camp.
It's funny though that he has attracted the cafe latte set as I would never have dreamed Hillary would be so huge amongst the working class.

Last Edit: 2008-04-15 @ 07:31:15
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-15 @ 07:30:28
In my opinion I think it shows that despite the rhetoric & the hype she has been more in tune with the real issues, although she hasn't had this heard well enough obviously.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-15 @ 22:08:04
So today's polls with Hillary +4 in PA and -5 in Indiana show that she is less in tune with the real issues, right??prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-15 @ 23:55:27
Todays Susa poll with her up by 14 was fascinating too we shouldnt forget to share that one eithier. Arg had Clinton up by 20 the other day in pa. Indiana this is the first poll with obama up in a long while. Susa has Clinton up by 16 and Mason Dixon also had her up in your home state awhile back now lets see what other polls am I leaving out.

I think we should just wait and see what large and equally important small town voters have to say.

Last Edit: 2008-04-16 @ 00:22:05
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-16 @ 00:58:08
SUSA had her up by 16, which is the one Demboy is talking about. ARG had Hillary up by 20 in a recent Pennsylvania poll, also referenced above by Demboy. Its most recent Indiana poll had Clinton up by nine two weeks ago.

Well, we have no choice but to wait and see, right?? Shall we shut down the site in the meantime? :P
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 12:53:36
Obama up in pa in a public policy polling poll see how we can share all polling information not just the ones that benefit are candidate.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-16 @ 13:36:25
Lib, the polling infomation you raised had already been presented correctly in the above posts. I nonetheless appreciate you pointing out the ppp poll.

Folks on this site in general, and Demboy in particular, are usually aware of the polls. It is nonetheless interesting to give our two cents on them, and try to be the first to bring new polls up!
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 15:18:51
The ppp poll was dated yesterday? Well anyway the polls seem to be all over the place there susa saying one thing la times saying the other it has been advantage obama so I am preparing myself emotionally and my check book for John Mc Cain its not easy as I believe in Senator Clinton.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-16 @ 17:18:07
Lots of discussion, good I like to see that. I think that Pennslyvania may break for Hillary but not as strongly as we once thought. Some of the data coming out suggests that it is a little more competitive than I thought. I'd place the values right now as Hillary 53%, Obama 47%. Indiana will be an unknown till after Pennslyvania.

While I doubt she'll lose it, if Obama wins Pennslyvania it will be lights out for her campign at that point. Although with nothing to lose she could continue to stay in till the convention. We'll have to see.

And Liberal I agree. I'm preparing to support McCain and that's not easy for this former Romney supporter. Sigh, he what we've got. If the base votes for him (and I think most will against Obama) and we can get some Reagan Democrats/independents then we'll be in good shape. Again sigh, I guess for this conservative its better to have a moderate than a liberal.
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-16 @ 21:24:29
I'll add Hillary is still down in PA and that a 5-6 point lead either way is going to come down once undecideds start making up their minds.

I think Obama still has a slight chance of winning PA
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 21:51:25
I dont with the demographics while I dont think the race looks good for her at all at this point I dont think she will lose pennsylvania, ofcourse it will be much closer then I like. Mc Cain will still in my view be a huge improvement over the current occupant of the white house.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-17 @ 05:20:57
I would have agreed a few days ago, but PPP and Zogby have Hillary's lead down to margin of error. Undecided voters will decide this. Either way, she won't get the 60%+ win you're predicting =Pprediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-17 @ 11:28:30
I agree who. Negative campaigning is not all its cracked up to be. It appears the stategy may backfire on Sen. Clinton.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-18 @ 06:18:07
Yeah, the ground is shifting against Hillary. Quite literally here in Indiana too :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-19 @ 01:57:53
Yes go the Dems!
The Reps have had their go for 8 years!
Give someone else a turn, sorry McCain.
I'd rather have Obama any day.
I think all Dems should work on Liberalrocks if the time arises!
I'm still going for Hillary but it's not great, she really needs to win big in PA, 60%+, & the polls at the moment certainly aren't saying that.
I hope she does, & she still could.
But if not - come on Girlfriend ie. Liberalrocks (lol) stick with the party!
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-19 @ 03:38:13
NOT A CHANCE. Hillary or Bust !

I will also be donating to John Mc Cain this fall as I did for Hillary, if she doesnt pull it out.

Last Edit: 2008-04-19 @ 03:41:34
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-19 @ 15:54:49
That's right! Why should Hillary supporters conform. What of Michigan, what of Florida, what of the Clintons, dynasties, experience! Come on Hillary, take this thing to the convention!!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-20 @ 01:10:22
Operation Chaos probably can't play for her favor in Pennsylvania, it's a closed primary :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-20 @ 04:57:50
But it's a primary, & it's a large state!
Both demographics that suit Hillary anyway.
Go Girl!

prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-20 @ 19:00:21
All good points. If she can't win PA it's over :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-20 @ 21:54:20
I think she'll be right.
Latest national opinion poll amongst Dems has her now with a slight lead of 1% over Obama.
Could this be the start of the end for him?
Let's hope so.
She'll win PA.
Obama will need an over the top turn out in Philadelphia & Pittsburgh among African Americans, with an equally low turn out for Hillary in the rest of the state.
Don't think this will happen.
The question is how big will she win it by?
She needs to stretch it into double digits somehow but I think it may be around 6 points or so.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-20 @ 21:56:57
Check again, Dem, that was yesterday's Gallup tracking. Today Obama is back to 2 points ahead, indicating Clinton's peak. So she led one day out of the last 30 or 40. Then there's Newsweek with its +19 Obama nationally...prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 04:43:49
Hillary will have her meaningless win in Pennsylvania. And nothing will change. The math is still against her, she is still running out of money, and her real estate going forward will only shrink. I'd look for this to be over by the end of May.

prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-21 @ 09:45:32
I don't. Who's going to tell Hillary Clinton to drop out? And what has she got to lose by staying in. Hillary has been preparing her whole life for a shot at the presidency and this is it. There is no do-over in 2012 or 2016. Its make or break for her political career. She was a lawyer then First Lady then Senator and now its this or nothing.

She won't be denied. With the whole thing about Michigan and Florida and with her being so very close to Obama in both pledged and popular votes she is going no where. My bet is that Hillary is going to try to sway the super delegates into thinking Obama is unelectible. The Clintons will put the heat to 'em.

So I think we'll be seeing Mrs. Clinton for a while. Hillary and Bill are taking this thing to the convention in my opinion.
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 10:01:42
If you look at the gains in super delegates in the past few months, it doesn't look good for Hillary. Dean and Pelosi have more or less tipped their hands as well.

Hillary can't rely on super delegates to bail her out. If she stays to the convention it will be to make a stink out of Michigan and Florida and flail her arms in the air and act as if it has somehow been stolen from her.

The problem with electability is it's subjective. And its a hard sell that Obama is unelectable when she is doing no better (and in many cases, worse) than he does against McCain.

Ambition and family name only carries one so far.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-21 @ 11:25:52
Moreover, supers will heed the call and declare for Obama at a heightened pace after tommorrow and especially after May 6.

By the end of May, even assuming large Clinton victories in W.Virginia and Kentucky, Obama will be within 150 delegates of 2025, without adding any additional supers between now and then. Therefore, less than half of the currently uncommitted supers will need to declare before Obama surpasses 2025 and becomes the presumptive nominee.

Now no Democrats, save perhaps Hillary and a few of her die hards, really wants this to go to the convention. So I have every reason to believe that the supers will be jumping on board with Obama, and soon.

Re Clinton, its hardly 'make or break for her political career' or 'this or nothing'. She will continue to be a Senator from New York, likely with increasingly prominent committee posts, and perhaps another shot in 2012, should Obama fumble this year, or even 2016. Now if she stands against the declared and pledged intentions of a majority of the party's convention delegates and deprives the presumptive nominee of 3 months to unite the party and run against McCain, her political career could be over or at least severely limited.

Last Edit: 2008-04-21 @ 11:26:59
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-21 @ 17:57:02
Well that's not to say that her career is over. I mean she can carry on in the senate but I mean advancement up the political lader. This is what Hillary has been waiting for, to be president. That is her goal. And let's be honest with ourselves, if she doesn't make it this time she has no chance in 2012 or 2016.

For one her negatives are so high right now there is no way she could do another presidential run. Plus she'll be 64 or 68 (I tend to think of McCain as the expection not the rule). And finally the Democratic party has a way of shunning losers. Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, none have run again.

Look I'm not saying Hillary is going to win this nomination just that she'll stay in till the end of the convention when the votes are final. And as long as she holds sway and keeps Obama even a delegate away from 2025 the Clintons are not dropping out. I expect it to get nasty because I think Hillary will work to paint Obama as unelectible over the summer to get the SDs.

Even if they do declare in June like Dean wants she can still stay in because the supers are not pledged. They can change their minds at anytime. So until I see a major fall out, I'm not looking for the Clintons to be going anywhere.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-21 @ 18:20:32
I agree CR. Mc Govern did run for the nomination multiple times he ran in 1984.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 22:15:34
She will concede if Obama gets to the 2025 mark. Ambition != delusion :Pprediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-21 @ 22:48:48
2025 delegates needed to nominate and yes part of that also includes superdelegates.

Last Edit: 2008-04-21 @ 22:50:20
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-22 @ 01:04:04
Humphrey also ran in '72, and came close, and Kerry started to try to run before sticking his foot in his mouth and getting bitch slapped by Hill.

The fallout begins tommorrow after Hillary fails to win big as projected a few weeks ago. She's broke, and needs a big win not only for a moral argument that she should be the nominee, but to boost fundraising. The ending credits are getting ready to roll. A margin of less than 8% tommorrow and her money starts to dry up. A loss by perhaps 25% in N. Carolina combined with a loss or close win in Indiana in two weeks and the debt will begin to pile up. She'll be out by June, mark my words.

prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-22 @ 01:11:12
If Democrats would have run Humphrey in 1972 they may have stood a chance....

Those college kids what can I say they sure didnt deliver for Mc Govern but he also did well with african americans lol.

prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 03:41:17
Haven't read all the comments yet as at work & running for the train.
But final prediction is 9 points to Hillary in PA.
I hope hope hope it's more.
Double digits would be so good.
Go Hillary!
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 06:18:30
& with renewed focus in Indiana & North Carolina, I think she'll run close there too.
I think Hillary will win Indiana.
I'd like to see her push harder in NC.
Oregon will also be interesting.
I believe it's a primary & not a caucus like in neighbouring Washington, so may be closer to the California result?
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 07:14:05
I don't think she has a real shot in Oregon or NC.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 07:32:26
Yeah I don't know.
I think Oregon is a bit of an unknown with not enough polling data.
You would think that with the results in Washington but it is a primary in Oregon?
If so it will be much closer.
All Obama's great states have mostly been caucuses.
Where there's been primaries it's been a lot closer mostly.
Who knows Who it's all speculation isn't it.
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 08:15:38
The Democratic nomination process will end in June, CR. Despite what your buddies might want. I love your analysis, but you're wrong on this one.

Delegates will be allocated by June 3rd. Super delegates will make their preference known after that time. I'd say this goes on no longer than June 21st. The party isn't going to go on self-destruct mode. In the end, Hillary will either be able to sway enough super delegates and cut his delegate lead down -- or she won't. But I don't think it's in her interest to win the nomination in August either.

Michigan and Florida will be resolved before the convention or be a non-issue. Mark my words. One way or the other, this thing ends before July 1st.

Last Edit: 2008-04-22 @ 08:17:56
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-22 @ 10:47:24
Maybe but I know the Clintons. She'd stay in even if she just a single delegate. Hillary will go no where so long as Obama stays below 2025. If she drops out before it will suprise me. It really all comes down to the super delegates. We'll have to see how quickly they decided.

As far as Operation Chaos goes we've already achieved a lot. I'd be great to see this thing go all the way to the convention. The Supers will really determine how long Hillary stays in. But the fact that the campign got nasty and lasts into June, well, that's not too shabby.

I just have a feeling that if Hillary wins Pennslyvania today, then Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and PR that she'll stay in. She'll be razor close to Obama in both the pledge and popular votes. She could swing enough supers to keep her in. It will be interesting. We'll see what the day brings.

Happy Pennslyvania Primary Day everyone!
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-22 @ 22:46:03
Thank you CR Hillary or Mc Cain 2008 !prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-22 @ 23:13:11
Hillary wins! With about 80% reporting its Hillary 55% and Obama 45%. Operation Chaos does it again, on to North Carolina and Indiana!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:49:25
3% of votes were Republican. I'm not too sure thats why she won. I'd say it has more to do with the economy in PA and its proximity to New York, bittergate, Wright, etc. etc.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:50:19
More interesting is Indiana with its large amount of Republicans. I think the GOP might run amok here.

I encourage them to vote for Obama in either case :P
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-23 @ 00:59:25
LOL. I think the GOP vote in Pennslyvania in the Democrat race was a little higher than 3%. Lot of crossover there from what I hear but whatever. In any case guys as promised I have a new map and I'm closing this one down. Please feel free to continue our rousing debate on internal Democratic primary politics on my new map version 19! prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 01:42:26
No, I would have to agree with whoblitzell on this one wow never thought Id be saying that!! She won white men and women and white male gun holders and blue dog democrats. She trounced him in the small towns and more rural areas as well as working class pittsburgh. She also trounced obama with voters over 45.

Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 01:46:01
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-23 @ 03:18:34
God bless Pennsylvania!
& thanks to all those Republicans voting for Hillary - your'e most welcome to continue your support!
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 22:27:42
A Research 2000 Poll has Obama up by just 1 here. I'm taking it with a grain of salt for now, though, because this might simply be a temporary bounce for Hillary out of PA.

Furthermore, this polling group tends to favor Clinton in general and their sample sizes are rather small.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-24 @ 23:12:15
I would imagine its more difficult to poll those rural area's and small towns in indiana.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 00:12:12
Go Indiana!
Vote for Hill!
She's more in tune with your values.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 00:53:11
I'm not sure why it would be more difficult to poll rural areas and small towns. It is more difficult to poll college students and younger people who tend not to have landlines, though.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 01:06:30
In this day & age is it difficult to poll anyone?prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 01:19:18
You can't look up cell phone numbers.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 01:21:30
You can if they're listed.
I don't know about the US but here in AUS they are listed unless you ask not to be listed.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 01:59:11
Cell phone #s are not listed here.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-25 @ 14:06:11
Arg has Clinton up by 5 So I think the polls will be all over the place in indiana as both candidates will have strengths in the state from different area's.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-25 @ 22:41:36
Blah. ARG is a Clinton rag :P

I'll wait for the SUSA and local polls to come out a few days before the election to see where this thing is really heading. My gut tells me right now that Hillary is going to get blown out here by a good margin and that this will effectively end her candidacy (in everyone's mind but hers, of course :P)
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-26 @ 05:40:27
No way.
She'll win just about as many counties as she did in PA, Indiana will be a sea of Hillary blue.
Obama will win Gary, & a handful of other counties.
Hillary may even win Indi.
That's my gut feeling from the other side of the world...
Seriously I think the demos here are definitely in her favour.
Even a closer look at Illinois - & she did surprisingly well in the mid to southern section of the state - Obama's own state without her campaigning there.
The race has tightened up considerably.
I don't think you'll see any more blow outs anywhere for Obama.
This is end game.
It's time to look past rhetoric & ask yourself what you really want.
Change without any details or Experience with comprehensive details & plans articulated by a tried & competent leader = Hillary Rodham Clinton!
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-26 @ 14:46:10
If you look past the rhetoric there isn't anything left to the Clinton campaign besides debt and denial.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 02:01:29
Clinton WILL NOT win Indianapolis (Marion County). Obama will win here with 60%+. I guarantee it.

Nor will Clinton win as many counties as she won in PA.

You are correct, there will not be a blowout. I believe, however, that Barack Obama will win, which will, for all intents and purposes, end the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 05:43:34
Well we will see.
Famous last words as always.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 18:34:05
Likewise.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 22:25:30
Latest results from Newsweek.

Obama's lead amongst registered Democrats nationally has been halved in the last week from 19 to 7 points.

41% now think unfavourably towards Obama re Reverend Wright's comments.

42% won't vote for Obama over his bitter comments.

In head to head match up's
Obama 47%
McCain 44%

Clinton 48%
McCain 45%

Working class & poor white voters:
Clinton 47%
McCain 46%

Obama 35%! (stunning result)
McCain 53%

The numbers are starting to paint the picture for Obama & his supporters - you have lost the lead you once so proudly commanded.

* These results are national figures.

Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 22:26:29
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 22:31:53
Hmmm, looks to me like he's still up by 7! I never bought the poll showing him up by 19. He has been up between 6-10% for two months, and up nationally over McCain by low single digits for some time. Nothing new here.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:21:10
I think what is interesting is that Hillary's own favorability ratings are also down right now.

It's sad to see this kind of petty politics at work. The only one looking good here is John McCain. The Democratic party should be better than this. I know the Clintons are, I'm just not sure they can see that the kitchen sink strategy has its own drawbacks.

I do believe Hillary will be on the ticket, one way or the other. I'd say she probably won't be at the top though. She should stay in the race until she believes she cannot win and Michigan and Florida have been resolved.

The DNC really dropped the ball with the punishment on this one. Cutting their delegations down to 1/3 or 1/4 (to look tougher than the Republicans) and seating them would have made far more sense.

Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 23:24:06
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:32:37
The Rules committee could still arrange that. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-28 @ 03:34:40
Why do they need to be tougher than that Republicans?

prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-28 @ 22:31:30
So we look tougher :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-29 @ 06:44:23
I'm not sure if the Dems will ever look tougher than the Republicans!
& that's a good thing!
But they (Republicans) have fallen from grace lately.
No, supporting democracy & fairness is always the best path.
I agree probably the only fair way is to rerun Florida & Michigan, failing that something needs to be worked out, so that these voters are not disenfranchised.

Last Edit: 2008-04-29 @ 06:45:08
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 00:42:58
THe party's rule prescribe that a contest must take place by early June. The re-vote idea died several weeks ago. Something will be worked out to seat the delegates from MI & FL.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 00:49:51
Before a nominee is crowned.

Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 00:50:29
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 01:15:06
Perhaps, perhaps not.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 02:04:32
If Obama gets to 2025 the media is going to say he wins. I think super delegates are in part holding off because of voting ongoing and the flap with those two states.

By the end of June voting will be over and a conclusion will have been reached on Michigan and Florida. At that point it will become apparent Clinton doesn't have the numbers to win and she will concede.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 02:30:31

See you in Denver Baby.

prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-30 @ 06:20:24
Apparently most of the supers have already made up their minds they just don't want to go on the record yet.
I read in the last few days possibly in Time that someone high up (can't remember who) was saying there are actually very few super delegates who are undecided.

Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 06:21:47
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 12:05:03
I've read the same. Many supers are announcing their support for Obama already. Four in the last few days from IA, NM, KY & IN, + 7 of the "Pelosi group" that have promised to vote for the winner among pedged delegates. One of these 7 had previously supported Clinton.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 13:59:55
Indeed. Hillary has already been defeated as demboy is implying LOL :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-01 @ 07:42:31
I'm not implying anything just that most of them have their minds made up, & Hillary has led amongst them up till now.
Bottom line is anything can happen in politics as this week has proven with Obama.
Falling behind in Indiana, line ball now in NC, & behind both Hillary & McCain nationally.
How quickly things can change.
Let's just hope it's more of the same & onwards & upwards for the Senator from New York!
prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie

Back to 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved