Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Clinton	18
Edwards	0
Obama	33
Richardson	0
Other	1

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Clinton	0
Edwards	0
Obama	0
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

Just a few adjustments in continuing struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama that is the Democratic primay. I think Obama will be the nominee but knowing the Clintons as I do, Hillary has nothing left to loose. She'll fight this thing out all the way to the convention. I'm sure of it. Of course Obama will still be the nominee but she won't make it easy. Hillary seems like she'd rather burn the party to the ground than give up the nomination.

Right now the only state I'm really on the fence with is Indiana. Pennslyvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Peuto Rico are Hillaryland. Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana belong to Obama. The question now is, what will Indiana do. Obama is strong in the cities and college towns. Hillary is good in the rural areas and with moderate and blue collar Democrats. Both Ohio and Illionis have an influence. Which way will it break? I'll predict that after I see how big Hillary's win is in Pennslyvania.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 21

Well this is my last Democratic primary map. I feel that Barak Obama will be the winner. Too bad for Hillary Clinton, got to say I did not see that one coming. For all practical purposes this race is over.

Version: 20

And the Democratic race rolls on and on and on.......

Common Hillary, TAKE IT TO DENVER!!!!
Operation Chaos!!!

Version: 19

So here we are in the post Pennslyvania Democratic primary era. When will all the fun stop? Not any time soon I hope, lol. Onward to the convention. Go Operation Chaos! Hey you can't blame a Republican for trying right ;)

Version: 18

Just a few adjustments in continuing struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama that is the Democratic primay. I think Obama will be the nominee but knowing the Clintons as I do, Hillary has nothing left to loose. She'll fight this thing out all the way to the convention. I'm sure of it. Of course Obama will still be the nominee but she won't make it easy. Hillary seems like she'd rather burn the party to the ground than give up the nomination.

Right now the only state I'm really on the fence with is Indiana. Pennslyvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Peuto Rico are Hillaryland. Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana belong to Obama. The question now is, what will Indiana do. Obama is strong in the cities and college towns. Hillary is good in the rural areas and with moderate and blue collar Democrats. Both Ohio and Illionis have an influence. Which way will it break? I'll predict that after I see how big Hillary's win is in Pennslyvania.

Version: 17

Now its impossible for either candidate to get the upper hand. I think we're headed for a brokered convention.

Version: 16

I think that Obama is going to win this thing. Texas will be the key. If Hillary loses it then she's done. Personally I think this is Obama's race to lose. Time will tell but we are on our way to the general election.

Version: 15

Few minor updates.

Version: 14

Just a few minor adjustments. I think Obama has the full potential to win this whole thing, nomination and White House. He has out raised Clinton in money and new few contests are going to prove to be wins for him if all plays out. I fully expect Obama to win Maine today and then DC, Virginia, and Maryland on Tuesday. After that I think that based on what we have seen in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois that he'll have the strength to carry Wisconsin and of course his birth state of Hawaii and leftist strong hold.

With such wins under his belt he'll have collected massive amounts of money and greater momentum. He was pronounced dead going into Super Tuesday and survived. He thrived last night. The conest could be decided on March 4. Based on what I've seen out of Florida, Nevada, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, and California he seems to have troubles in largely latino areas. I think Hillary could claim a victory in Texas.

But that is not assured because Texas does have a large black population as well so it may be closed. Obama did come razon close to winning New Mexico, we'll be watching it closely. The key is Ohio. If it falls Hillary has a problem. Coupling his other wins I think he could go on to win Pennslyvania and that would be it.

We'll see how thing progress. Change can be expected in such close contests.

Version: 13

Okay so I ran the race out. I hope it looks good but so far I've done a better job than I expected to in calling the Democratic race. I personally hope Obama wins the primary. The battle rages on.....

Version: 12

Obama is looking to be building up strength. Clinton may just come back and suprise us but I think as of right now the ball is in Obama's court.

Version: 11

Final prediction before Super Tuesday.

Version: 10

Final prediction before Super Tuesday.

Version: 9

I have no idea who is going to win the Democratic nomination. Hillary looks to be in a good position but because delegates get divided up I really don't know. Obama has build quite a resistance to the Clintons, even getting the Kennedys on board. We'll know in a week but so far I've called the Democratic race pretty good. Which is kindof weird for a Republican.

Version: 8

This race has become just as hard to call as the one on the GOP side. Both are so fluid, I don't want to make any long term predictions at this point. The fight between Obama and Hillary has gotten pretty serious and we'll see how it effects the up coming races.

Version: 7

Wow the Demcratic race is getting more divided the further along we go. At this point I don't know who will win so I have created a tie until I get more data from the different results of the races. The racial split in the Democratic race is unheard of. I think Edwards may get out soon and endorse Obama. We'll see but a group of undecided voters in Nevada are split 50/50.

Super Tuesday will tell us a lot but the race could go beyond that date. The Clinton loyalists and anti-Clinton forces are really battling it out for control of the party. At least that is how it seems to this outsider. I do believe that Obama can and may well win Nevada and South Carolina while Mrs. Clinton will claim Florida.

We shall see. On to Nevada!

Version: 6

New dynamics have emerged in the Democratic race. For a time I toyed with the idea that Obama may win. But I knew Clinton Inc was stronger than that. Obama is not dead yet, he'll battle her through Super Tuesday, and he has the money and support to do it. We'll see how it plays out. Nevada is going to be Hillary's so will Michigan and Florida. I still believe that South Carolina goes to Obama along with most of the south. She'll take big states I'm sure. Lets see what the voters think.

Version: 5

I think that Barak Obama may be well on his way to winning the nomination of his party. This is clearly become an anti-DC year. For the most part he is seen as the candidate of change that can lead America with optmism into a better future. Hillary was suppose to be unstoppible. She had the most support in Iowa, the most money, the most endorsements. And she lost. She even lost the female vote, 30-35. Younger voters and those seeking change, plus independents and voters of other candidates, went to Obama.

Now I think he may be poised to win New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary may win Michigan as the sole candidate but it has been stripped of its voting delagation. Nevada will save her but she could lose Florida to Barak. We'll see about that.

Then on Super Tuesday Obama could win in California, the South, and Midwest. Hillary would do well in the rust belt. She may stay in the race until March where she graps Ohio but a lose in Texas would knock her out.

We'll see what the people think.

Version: 4

I think that Barak Obama may be well on his way to winning the nomination of his party. This is clearly become an anti-DC year. For the most part he is seen as the candidate of change that can lead America with optmism into a better future. Hillary was suppose to be unstoppible. She had the most support in Iowa, the most money, the most endorsements. And she lost. She even lost the female vote, 30-35. Younger voters and those seeking change, plus independents and voters of other candidates, went to Obama.

Now I think he may be poised to win New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary may win Michigan as the sole candidate but it has been stripped of its voting delagation. Nevada will save her but she could lose Florida to Barak. We'll see about that.

Then on Super Tuesday Obama could win in California, the South, and Midwest. Hillary would do well in the rust belt. She may stay in the race until March where she graps Ohio but a lose in Texas would knock her out.

We'll see what the people think.

Version: 3

Alright as we head into the final stretch of the primary race I'm looking more and more at Mrs. Clinton gaining the nomination. Now Obama could still prove trouble some to her and keep the race going up till March. In addition to that I still believe that Obama has a chance to win but here I have given the nomination to Hillary. Notice I have placed all states at the tossup level because I feel that the polls are unrelible and we have to see what the voters think. So lets go through the time line.

To being, Obama must win in Iowa to stay in the race. If Hillary wins there, he's done and she is the nominee. I kindof feel that it is that simple though Obama could still suprise us. If he wins in New Hampshire instead of Iowa well that would keep him in but it'd be hard after a lose in Iowa.

So here Obama wins Iowa but loses New Hampshire to Hillary who goes on to win Michigan and Nevada. However Obama comes back to gain South Carolina before Hillary scoops up Florida. However, because Florida and Michigan have been stripped of their delegates I don't know if they will matter as much, but a win's a win. So now on Super Tuesday Obama cleans up in the south and some in the western states like Idaho, Colorado, and Alaska. Illinois is his as well. Hillary cleans up the rest.

Now at this point Edwards and the others drop out and Obama really should too but he stays in winning the next two contests in Nebraska and Louisiana. But he has a fierce battle with Hillary over Washington state where he loses. After a couple more defeats Obama concedes and Hillary goes on to win the remaining contests.

My last version is the best Obama win senerio if you would like to see it. This is probably what could happen but there are also other senerios too. We shall see what the voters think.

Version: 2

New map, new idea. It seems to me with recent events that Barak Obama may be capible of beating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. I seriously doubt at this point that Richardson, Biden, Edwards, Gravel, or any of the others pose a real challenge to either of them. Edwards could however still have a strong showing in the early states, especially Iowa. Lets run the time line.

Barak Obama works the gambit and comes out on top in Iowa, gaining about 40% of the vote. Hillary runs in second somewhere in the mid-30's while Edwards comes in at about 29%. Five days later Obama just barely wins New Hampshire. Hillary comes back to win big in Michigan and then again in Nevada. Her Nevada margins are closer than she'd like though. South Carolina is another big victory for Obama but Hillary remains in the race winning Florida.

Super Tuesday give Obama a great opertunity. He manages to gain the southern Democratic electorate with the aid of many black voters and scores well in the west. Hillary holds her own with wins in California, New York, and other parts of the Northeast. Much to her suprise however, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Colorado prove to be Obama victories. Richardson wins in New Mexico with Clinton second and Obama third.

The rest of February finds Obama and Clinton picking up various states. The others minor candidates drop out. Most of their support swings to Obama with the exception of Richardson's camp as he endorses Mrs. Clinton. She gains Ohio in early March but Obama pulls out a narrow win in Texas. Edwards finally pulls out of the race and with most of the big states gone and the south lost, Hillary concedes to Barak Obama who wins the remaining states.

One possibility of many.

Version: 1

Hillary Clinton will for sure be the Democratic nominee. At least at this point. I am beginning to supect though that Barak Obama could give her a run for her money. He has the potnential to make the early states dicey for her and pull off some supprises in Georgia, Kansas, and maybe Oregon though this map does not show that particular possibility.

The other Democratic nominees will surely drop out after the early states are finished and all be Obama will be done by the end of Super Tuesday. Obama may linger for a couple weeks there after, maybe picking up Nebraska but that would ba about it. He drop out and Hillary would carry the remaining states.

I'm not an expert on the Democratic races so this is the best I could come up with.

Version History

22: 2008-05-29 @ 14:10:55 21: 2008-05-19 @ 17:09:18 20: 2008-05-01 @ 19:24:48 19: 2008-04-23 @ 00:57:05 18: 2008-04-02 @ 00:35:09 17: 2008-03-05 @ 19:45:32 16: 2008-03-01 @ 17:09:10 15: 2008-02-16 @ 22:43:24 14: 2008-02-10 @ 18:38:41 13: 2008-02-06 @ 15:54:39 12: 2008-02-03 @ 13:12:24 11: 2008-02-02 @ 23:21:47 10: 2008-02-01 @ 21:44:32 9: 2008-01-30 @ 00:54:04 8: 2008-01-18 @ 21:32:45 7: 2008-01-15 @ 23:40:31 6: 2008-01-08 @ 23:24:37 5: 2008-01-06 @ 00:08:42 4: 2008-01-04 @ 01:51:31 3: 2007-12-27 @ 18:45:36 2: 2007-12-17 @ 00:35:55 1: 2007-12-10 @ 16:02:18 View Version

Member Comments

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 17:10:12
This map is incorrect. Because my own opinion can be loosely equated with that of God. And God can't be wrong. edit: If you won't take my word, just ask james. Last Edit: 2008-04-02 @ 17:10:43

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-02 @ 18:30:58
LOL who Lord even here James's incorrection plague sperads! Very funny whoblitzell I like it. Hey as a native of Indiana can you give me any insight into the race there? It is the one state I just can't seem to place for Obama or Hillary. Last Edit: 2008-04-02 @ 18:31:16

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-02 @ 18:50:11
CR There is three polls on indiana in the polling section of the site, It may be too soon to gauge but Obama is not running away with the state as of yet. Even though he has been crowned the perspective nominee!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 21:57:49
Normally I would say Obama, but I'm not sure with Operation Chaos 'independents' voting in the primary, if you get what I mean. There are some pretty nazi ballot laws here too. IDs are mandatory at the polls in all precincts now with proof of residence if you are challenged. Which, of course, the voters will be. This is going to be a *really* ugly fight if things get close. I suspect it will be close.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-02 @ 21:58:35
Your map is still incorrect though. That is the sentence of God.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-02 @ 23:39:36
Great then our maps can be incorrect together as Duke of St Louis James has decreed, lol! In any case thanks for the insight into Indiana. I guess we have to wait and see what happens in PA first. I have not heard the orders from the southern command about what to do in Operation Chaos in Indiana. We can't let Hillary get too far ahead, just enough to stay in the race. What I can tell you is that according to the orders there are a lot of really important down state GOP ballot issues in North Carolina. That state has therefore been exempted from Operation Chaos so I suspect an Obama win. Pennslyvania is to vote for Hillary. Indiana and the others have yet to be decided. However, I'll keep you posted....

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-03 @ 13:13:17
I'm probably the only liberal that listens to Rush in this state :O

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-03 @ 22:19:51
Oh common its Indiana I'm sure there are a few others. lol, I know the Democrats listen to him because they always talk about what he says!

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-05 @ 23:14:31
I can't stand his BS.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-06 @ 00:23:31
I've actually been enjoying some Fox News - dare I say it. Despite their Republican bias it can be interesting & funny. It's always good to know what the other side is thinking even if it is warped.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-06 @ 22:57:38
That's how I feel when I watch CNN!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-07 @ 00:45:21
FOX is the only place I can get objective coverage of the Democratic race... and Limbaugh.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-07 @ 07:47:01
I like the O'Reilly factor.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-07 @ 07:53:27
PS I think your latest map is pretty much on the money.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-07 @ 09:26:22
Ah thanks demboy, I'll make a few updates after Pennslyvania. I think Hillary will take it somewhere in the mid-50% range. So after that I'll make decisions on the other states.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-07 @ 15:47:43
I'm not sure about that anymore, CR. The wheels seem to be coming off the bus lately

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-07 @ 19:13:55
Yeah but the demographics and the state party play to her advantage. Plus operation chaos is in it to see that Hillary does win in Pennslyvania. Got to give her just enough to get her to the convention. The way things seem to be shaping up are that Obama will carry North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Hillary will take Pennslyvania, Kentucky, Peuto Rico, West Virginia, and maybe Indiana. To be honest your home state is too hard to call right now. We'll have to see what goes down in Pennslyvania.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-13 @ 02:07:09
I know the issue has probably died down but I still think Obama has done himself an enormous amount of damage in the white community by supporting his activist Pastor. He may not be answerable for the things he says but as Hillary said you can choose the church you go to. As Joe Klein in Time said - fancy subjecting his daughters to that sort of hate. It's certainly made alot of people skeptical.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-13 @ 02:08:58
Either that or he really didn't go there that often. I'd like to think that was the answer. He should have repudiated him entirely. I also don't think he needed to bring his Grandmother into it. She would have said those things in confidence no doubt & for Obama to tell the whole world is a betrayal in my opinion.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-13 @ 18:58:53
His latest comments on small town people in the Midwest only seeking God and guns based on being bitter about their lives won't help him either. We'll see what both and Hillary do in Pennslyvania. By that I pretty much mean how large a win Hillary gets.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-14 @ 00:36:23
Although I see what he was trying to say, pretty risky stuff especially in America. I can't wait to see the latest opinion polls for PA - I think whatever gains he's made will be reversed. PA should be a bigger win for Hillary than Ohio.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-14 @ 21:41:51
I think an elist message, or even one that sounds elist, will really turn off large parts of the electorate in the Midwest and Pennslyvania. I'm not sure Obama did himself any favors in Pennslyvania and Indiana. Now he doesn't need those states to win the nomination but I still think it was an unwise move.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-14 @ 23:16:54
Absolutely ! Republicans will run with the old Dukakis playbook and he actually appears to be giving them advanced strategy. Where's Lee Atwater when you need him? LOL The old dirty RAT, RIP. Last Edit: 2008-04-15 @ 01:00:47

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-15 @ 07:29:24
Latest polls are out on this site! PA +20 for Hillary & IN + 16 for HRC! Go Hillary! Hopefully this trend will continue, which I think it will. But in relation to your previous comment CR I've always got an elitist vibe from Obama & some of his camp. It's funny though that he has attracted the cafe latte set as I would never have dreamed Hillary would be so huge amongst the working class. Last Edit: 2008-04-15 @ 07:31:15

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-15 @ 07:30:28
In my opinion I think it shows that despite the rhetoric & the hype she has been more in tune with the real issues, although she hasn't had this heard well enough obviously.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-15 @ 22:08:04
So today's polls with Hillary +4 in PA and -5 in Indiana show that she is less in tune with the real issues, right??

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-15 @ 23:55:27
Todays Susa poll with her up by 14 was fascinating too we shouldnt forget to share that one eithier. Arg had Clinton up by 20 the other day in pa. Indiana this is the first poll with obama up in a long while. Susa has Clinton up by 16 and Mason Dixon also had her up in your home state awhile back now lets see what other polls am I leaving out. I think we should just wait and see what large and equally important small town voters have to say. Last Edit: 2008-04-16 @ 00:22:05

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-16 @ 00:58:08
SUSA had her up by 16, which is the one Demboy is talking about. ARG had Hillary up by 20 in a recent Pennsylvania poll, also referenced above by Demboy. Its most recent Indiana poll had Clinton up by nine two weeks ago. Well, we have no choice but to wait and see, right?? Shall we shut down the site in the meantime? :P

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 12:53:36
Obama up in pa in a public policy polling poll see how we can share all polling information not just the ones that benefit are candidate.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-16 @ 13:36:25
Lib, the polling infomation you raised had already been presented correctly in the above posts. I nonetheless appreciate you pointing out the ppp poll. Folks on this site in general, and Demboy in particular, are usually aware of the polls. It is nonetheless interesting to give our two cents on them, and try to be the first to bring new polls up!

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 15:18:51
The ppp poll was dated yesterday? Well anyway the polls seem to be all over the place there susa saying one thing la times saying the other it has been advantage obama so I am preparing myself emotionally and my check book for John Mc Cain its not easy as I believe in Senator Clinton.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-16 @ 17:18:07
Lots of discussion, good I like to see that. I think that Pennslyvania may break for Hillary but not as strongly as we once thought. Some of the data coming out suggests that it is a little more competitive than I thought. I'd place the values right now as Hillary 53%, Obama 47%. Indiana will be an unknown till after Pennslyvania. While I doubt she'll lose it, if Obama wins Pennslyvania it will be lights out for her campign at that point. Although with nothing to lose she could continue to stay in till the convention. We'll have to see. And Liberal I agree. I'm preparing to support McCain and that's not easy for this former Romney supporter. Sigh, he what we've got. If the base votes for him (and I think most will against Obama) and we can get some Reagan Democrats/independents then we'll be in good shape. Again sigh, I guess for this conservative its better to have a moderate than a liberal.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-16 @ 21:24:29
I'll add Hillary is still down in PA and that a 5-6 point lead either way is going to come down once undecideds start making up their minds. I think Obama still has a slight chance of winning PA

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-16 @ 21:51:25
I dont with the demographics while I dont think the race looks good for her at all at this point I dont think she will lose pennsylvania, ofcourse it will be much closer then I like. Mc Cain will still in my view be a huge improvement over the current occupant of the white house.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-17 @ 05:20:57
I would have agreed a few days ago, but PPP and Zogby have Hillary's lead down to margin of error. Undecided voters will decide this. Either way, she won't get the 60%+ win you're predicting =P

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-17 @ 11:28:30
I agree who. Negative campaigning is not all its cracked up to be. It appears the stategy may backfire on Sen. Clinton.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-18 @ 06:18:07
Yeah, the ground is shifting against Hillary. Quite literally here in Indiana too :P

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-19 @ 01:57:53
Yes go the Dems! The Reps have had their go for 8 years! Give someone else a turn, sorry McCain. I'd rather have Obama any day. I think all Dems should work on Liberalrocks if the time arises! I'm still going for Hillary but it's not great, she really needs to win big in PA, 60%+, & the polls at the moment certainly aren't saying that. I hope she does, & she still could. But if not - come on Girlfriend ie. Liberalrocks (lol) stick with the party!

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-19 @ 03:38:13
NOT A CHANCE. Hillary or Bust ! I will also be donating to John Mc Cain this fall as I did for Hillary, if she doesnt pull it out. Last Edit: 2008-04-19 @ 03:41:34

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-19 @ 15:54:49
That's right! Why should Hillary supporters conform. What of Michigan, what of Florida, what of the Clintons, dynasties, experience! Come on Hillary, take this thing to the convention!!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-20 @ 01:10:22
Operation Chaos probably can't play for her favor in Pennsylvania, it's a closed primary :P

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-20 @ 04:57:50
But it's a primary, & it's a large state! Both demographics that suit Hillary anyway. Go Girl!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-20 @ 19:00:21
All good points. If she can't win PA it's over :P

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-20 @ 21:54:20
I think she'll be right. Latest national opinion poll amongst Dems has her now with a slight lead of 1% over Obama. Could this be the start of the end for him? haha Let's hope so. She'll win PA. Obama will need an over the top turn out in Philadelphia & Pittsburgh among African Americans, with an equally low turn out for Hillary in the rest of the state. Don't think this will happen. The question is how big will she win it by? She needs to stretch it into double digits somehow but I think it may be around 6 points or so.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-20 @ 21:56:57
Check again, Dem, that was yesterday's Gallup tracking. Today Obama is back to 2 points ahead, indicating Clinton's peak. So she led one day out of the last 30 or 40. Then there's Newsweek with its +19 Obama nationally...

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 04:43:49
Hillary will have her meaningless win in Pennsylvania. And nothing will change. The math is still against her, she is still running out of money, and her real estate going forward will only shrink. I'd look for this to be over by the end of May.

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-21 @ 09:45:32
I don't. Who's going to tell Hillary Clinton to drop out? And what has she got to lose by staying in. Hillary has been preparing her whole life for a shot at the presidency and this is it. There is no do-over in 2012 or 2016. Its make or break for her political career. She was a lawyer then First Lady then Senator and now its this or nothing. She won't be denied. With the whole thing about Michigan and Florida and with her being so very close to Obama in both pledged and popular votes she is going no where. My bet is that Hillary is going to try to sway the super delegates into thinking Obama is unelectible. The Clintons will put the heat to 'em. So I think we'll be seeing Mrs. Clinton for a while. Hillary and Bill are taking this thing to the convention in my opinion.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 10:01:42
If you look at the gains in super delegates in the past few months, it doesn't look good for Hillary. Dean and Pelosi have more or less tipped their hands as well. Hillary can't rely on super delegates to bail her out. If she stays to the convention it will be to make a stink out of Michigan and Florida and flail her arms in the air and act as if it has somehow been stolen from her. The problem with electability is it's subjective. And its a hard sell that Obama is unelectable when she is doing no better (and in many cases, worse) than he does against McCain. Ambition and family name only carries one so far.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-21 @ 11:25:52
Moreover, supers will heed the call and declare for Obama at a heightened pace after tommorrow and especially after May 6. By the end of May, even assuming large Clinton victories in W.Virginia and Kentucky, Obama will be within 150 delegates of 2025, without adding any additional supers between now and then. Therefore, less than half of the currently uncommitted supers will need to declare before Obama surpasses 2025 and becomes the presumptive nominee. Now no Democrats, save perhaps Hillary and a few of her die hards, really wants this to go to the convention. So I have every reason to believe that the supers will be jumping on board with Obama, and soon. Re Clinton, its hardly 'make or break for her political career' or 'this or nothing'. She will continue to be a Senator from New York, likely with increasingly prominent committee posts, and perhaps another shot in 2012, should Obama fumble this year, or even 2016. Now if she stands against the declared and pledged intentions of a majority of the party's convention delegates and deprives the presumptive nominee of 3 months to unite the party and run against McCain, her political career could be over or at least severely limited. Last Edit: 2008-04-21 @ 11:26:59

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-21 @ 17:57:02
Well that's not to say that her career is over. I mean she can carry on in the senate but I mean advancement up the political lader. This is what Hillary has been waiting for, to be president. That is her goal. And let's be honest with ourselves, if she doesn't make it this time she has no chance in 2012 or 2016. For one her negatives are so high right now there is no way she could do another presidential run. Plus she'll be 64 or 68 (I tend to think of McCain as the expection not the rule). And finally the Democratic party has a way of shunning losers. Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, none have run again. Look I'm not saying Hillary is going to win this nomination just that she'll stay in till the end of the convention when the votes are final. And as long as she holds sway and keeps Obama even a delegate away from 2025 the Clintons are not dropping out. I expect it to get nasty because I think Hillary will work to paint Obama as unelectible over the summer to get the SDs. Even if they do declare in June like Dean wants she can still stay in because the supers are not pledged. They can change their minds at anytime. So until I see a major fall out, I'm not looking for the Clintons to be going anywhere.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-21 @ 18:20:32
I agree CR. Mc Govern did run for the nomination multiple times he ran in 1984.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-21 @ 22:15:34
She will concede if Obama gets to the 2025 mark. Ambition != delusion :P

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-21 @ 22:48:48
2025 delegates needed to nominate and yes part of that also includes superdelegates. Last Edit: 2008-04-21 @ 22:50:20

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-22 @ 01:04:04
Humphrey also ran in '72, and came close, and Kerry started to try to run before sticking his foot in his mouth and getting bitch slapped by Hill. The fallout begins tommorrow after Hillary fails to win big as projected a few weeks ago. She's broke, and needs a big win not only for a moral argument that she should be the nominee, but to boost fundraising. The ending credits are getting ready to roll. A margin of less than 8% tommorrow and her money starts to dry up. A loss by perhaps 25% in N. Carolina combined with a loss or close win in Indiana in two weeks and the debt will begin to pile up. She'll be out by June, mark my words. Sorry.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-22 @ 01:11:12
If Democrats would have run Humphrey in 1972 they may have stood a chance.... Those college kids what can I say they sure didnt deliver for Mc Govern but he also did well with african americans lol.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 03:41:17
Haven't read all the comments yet as at work & running for the train. But final prediction is 9 points to Hillary in PA. I hope hope hope it's more. Double digits would be so good. Go Hillary!

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 06:18:30
& with renewed focus in Indiana & North Carolina, I think she'll run close there too. I think Hillary will win Indiana. I'd like to see her push harder in NC. Oregon will also be interesting. I believe it's a primary & not a caucus like in neighbouring Washington, so may be closer to the California result?

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 07:14:05
I don't think she has a real shot in Oregon or NC.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-22 @ 07:32:26
Yeah I don't know. I think Oregon is a bit of an unknown with not enough polling data. You would think that with the results in Washington but it is a primary in Oregon? If so it will be much closer. All Obama's great states have mostly been caucuses. Where there's been primaries it's been a lot closer mostly. Who knows Who it's all speculation isn't it.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 08:15:38
The Democratic nomination process will end in June, CR. Despite what your buddies might want. I love your analysis, but you're wrong on this one. Delegates will be allocated by June 3rd. Super delegates will make their preference known after that time. I'd say this goes on no longer than June 21st. The party isn't going to go on self-destruct mode. In the end, Hillary will either be able to sway enough super delegates and cut his delegate lead down -- or she won't. But I don't think it's in her interest to win the nomination in August either. Michigan and Florida will be resolved before the convention or be a non-issue. Mark my words. One way or the other, this thing ends before July 1st. Last Edit: 2008-04-22 @ 08:17:56

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-22 @ 10:47:24
Maybe but I know the Clintons. She'd stay in even if she just a single delegate. Hillary will go no where so long as Obama stays below 2025. If she drops out before it will suprise me. It really all comes down to the super delegates. We'll have to see how quickly they decided. As far as Operation Chaos goes we've already achieved a lot. I'd be great to see this thing go all the way to the convention. The Supers will really determine how long Hillary stays in. But the fact that the campign got nasty and lasts into June, well, that's not too shabby. I just have a feeling that if Hillary wins Pennslyvania today, then Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and PR that she'll stay in. She'll be razor close to Obama in both the pledge and popular votes. She could swing enough supers to keep her in. It will be interesting. We'll see what the day brings. Happy Pennslyvania Primary Day everyone!

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-22 @ 22:46:03
Thank you CR Hillary or Mc Cain 2008 !

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-22 @ 23:13:11
Hillary wins! With about 80% reporting its Hillary 55% and Obama 45%. Operation Chaos does it again, on to North Carolina and Indiana!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:49:25
3% of votes were Republican. I'm not too sure thats why she won. I'd say it has more to do with the economy in PA and its proximity to New York, bittergate, Wright, etc. etc.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:50:19
More interesting is Indiana with its large amount of Republicans. I think the GOP might run amok here. I encourage them to vote for Obama in either case :P

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By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-23 @ 00:59:25
LOL. I think the GOP vote in Pennslyvania in the Democrat race was a little higher than 3%. Lot of crossover there from what I hear but whatever. In any case guys as promised I have a new map and I'm closing this one down. Please feel free to continue our rousing debate on internal Democratic primary politics on my new map version 19!

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 01:42:26
No, I would have to agree with whoblitzell on this one wow never thought Id be saying that!! She won white men and women and white male gun holders and blue dog democrats. She trounced him in the small towns and more rural areas as well as working class pittsburgh. She also trounced obama with voters over 45. Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 01:46:01

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-23 @ 03:18:34
God bless Pennsylvania! & thanks to all those Republicans voting for Hillary - your'e most welcome to continue your support!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 22:27:42
A Research 2000 Poll has Obama up by just 1 here. I'm taking it with a grain of salt for now, though, because this might simply be a temporary bounce for Hillary out of PA. Furthermore, this polling group tends to favor Clinton in general and their sample sizes are rather small.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-24 @ 23:12:15
I would imagine its more difficult to poll those rural area's and small towns in indiana.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 00:12:12
Go Indiana! Vote for Hill! She's more in tune with your values.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 00:53:11
I'm not sure why it would be more difficult to poll rural areas and small towns. It is more difficult to poll college students and younger people who tend not to have landlines, though.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 01:06:30
In this day & age is it difficult to poll anyone?

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 01:19:18
You can't look up cell phone numbers.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 01:21:30
You can if they're listed. I don't know about the US but here in AUS they are listed unless you ask not to be listed.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 01:59:11
Cell phone #s are not listed here.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-25 @ 14:06:11
Arg has Clinton up by 5 So I think the polls will be all over the place in indiana as both candidates will have strengths in the state from different area's.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-25 @ 22:41:36
Blah. ARG is a Clinton rag :P I'll wait for the SUSA and local polls to come out a few days before the election to see where this thing is really heading. My gut tells me right now that Hillary is going to get blown out here by a good margin and that this will effectively end her candidacy (in everyone's mind but hers, of course :P)

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-26 @ 05:40:27
No way. She'll win just about as many counties as she did in PA, Indiana will be a sea of Hillary blue. Obama will win Gary, & a handful of other counties. Hillary may even win Indi. That's my gut feeling from the other side of the world... hehe Seriously I think the demos here are definitely in her favour. Even a closer look at Illinois - & she did surprisingly well in the mid to southern section of the state - Obama's own state without her campaigning there. The race has tightened up considerably. I don't think you'll see any more blow outs anywhere for Obama. This is end game. It's time to look past rhetoric & ask yourself what you really want. Change without any details or Experience with comprehensive details & plans articulated by a tried & competent leader = Hillary Rodham Clinton!

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-26 @ 14:46:10
If you look past the rhetoric there isn't anything left to the Clinton campaign besides debt and denial.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 02:01:29
Clinton WILL NOT win Indianapolis (Marion County). Obama will win here with 60%+. I guarantee it. Nor will Clinton win as many counties as she won in PA. You are correct, there will not be a blowout. I believe, however, that Barack Obama will win, which will, for all intents and purposes, end the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 05:43:34
Well we will see. Famous last words as always.

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 18:34:05
Likewise.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 22:25:30
Latest results from Newsweek. Obama's lead amongst registered Democrats nationally has been halved in the last week from 19 to 7 points. 41% now think unfavourably towards Obama re Reverend Wright's comments. 42% won't vote for Obama over his bitter comments. In head to head match up's Obama 47% McCain 44% Clinton 48% McCain 45% Working class & poor white voters: Clinton 47% McCain 46% Obama 35%! (stunning result) McCain 53% The numbers are starting to paint the picture for Obama & his supporters - you have lost the lead you once so proudly commanded. * These results are national figures. Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 22:26:29

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 22:31:53
Hmmm, looks to me like he's still up by 7! I never bought the poll showing him up by 19. He has been up between 6-10% for two months, and up nationally over McCain by low single digits for some time. Nothing new here.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:21:10
I think what is interesting is that Hillary's own favorability ratings are also down right now. It's sad to see this kind of petty politics at work. The only one looking good here is John McCain. The Democratic party should be better than this. I know the Clintons are, I'm just not sure they can see that the kitchen sink strategy has its own drawbacks. I do believe Hillary will be on the ticket, one way or the other. I'd say she probably won't be at the top though. She should stay in the race until she believes she cannot win and Michigan and Florida have been resolved. The DNC really dropped the ball with the punishment on this one. Cutting their delegations down to 1/3 or 1/4 (to look tougher than the Republicans) and seating them would have made far more sense. Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 23:24:06

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:32:37
The Rules committee could still arrange that.

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-28 @ 03:34:40
Why do they need to be tougher than that Republicans?

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-28 @ 22:31:30
So we look tougher :P

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-29 @ 06:44:23
I'm not sure if the Dems will ever look tougher than the Republicans! & that's a good thing! *grin* But they (Republicans) have fallen from grace lately. No, supporting democracy & fairness is always the best path. I agree probably the only fair way is to rerun Florida & Michigan, failing that something needs to be worked out, so that these voters are not disenfranchised. Last Edit: 2008-04-29 @ 06:45:08

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 00:42:58
THe party's rule prescribe that a contest must take place by early June. The re-vote idea died several weeks ago. Something will be worked out to seat the delegates from MI & FL.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 00:49:51
Before a nominee is crowned. Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 00:50:29

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 01:15:06
Perhaps, perhaps not.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 02:04:32
If Obama gets to 2025 the media is going to say he wins. I think super delegates are in part holding off because of voting ongoing and the flap with those two states. By the end of June voting will be over and a conclusion will have been reached on Michigan and Florida. At that point it will become apparent Clinton doesn't have the numbers to win and she will concede.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 02:30:31
2025. See you in Denver Baby. Kisses,,

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-30 @ 06:20:24
Apparently most of the supers have already made up their minds they just don't want to go on the record yet. I read in the last few days possibly in Time that someone high up (can't remember who) was saying there are actually very few super delegates who are undecided. Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 06:21:47

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By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 12:05:03
I've read the same. Many supers are announcing their support for Obama already. Four in the last few days from IA, NM, KY & IN, + 7 of the "Pelosi group" that have promised to vote for the winner among pedged delegates. One of these 7 had previously supported Clinton.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 13:59:55
Indeed. Hillary has already been defeated as demboy is implying LOL :P

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By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-01 @ 07:42:31
I'm not implying anything just that most of them have their minds made up, & Hillary has led amongst them up till now. Bottom line is anything can happen in politics as this week has proven with Obama. Falling behind in Indiana, line ball now in NC, & behind both Hillary & McCain nationally. How quickly things can change. Let's just hope it's more of the same & onwards & upwards for the Senator from New York!

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