Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-01 Version:20

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	19
Edwards	0
Obama	33
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	0
Edwards	0
Obama	0
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

And the Democratic race rolls on and on and on.......

Common Hillary, TAKE IT TO DENVER!!!!
Operation Chaos!!!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 21

Well this is my last Democratic primary map. I feel that Barak Obama will be the winner. Too bad for Hillary Clinton, got to say I did not see that one coming. For all practical purposes this race is over.

Version: 20

And the Democratic race rolls on and on and on.......

Common Hillary, TAKE IT TO DENVER!!!!
Operation Chaos!!!

Version: 19

So here we are in the post Pennslyvania Democratic primary era. When will all the fun stop? Not any time soon I hope, lol. Onward to the convention. Go Operation Chaos! Hey you can't blame a Republican for trying right ;)

Version: 18

Just a few adjustments in continuing struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama that is the Democratic primay. I think Obama will be the nominee but knowing the Clintons as I do, Hillary has nothing left to loose. She'll fight this thing out all the way to the convention. I'm sure of it. Of course Obama will still be the nominee but she won't make it easy. Hillary seems like she'd rather burn the party to the ground than give up the nomination.

Right now the only state I'm really on the fence with is Indiana. Pennslyvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Peuto Rico are Hillaryland. Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Montana belong to Obama. The question now is, what will Indiana do. Obama is strong in the cities and college towns. Hillary is good in the rural areas and with moderate and blue collar Democrats. Both Ohio and Illionis have an influence. Which way will it break? I'll predict that after I see how big Hillary's win is in Pennslyvania.

Version: 17

Now its impossible for either candidate to get the upper hand. I think we're headed for a brokered convention.

Version: 16

I think that Obama is going to win this thing. Texas will be the key. If Hillary loses it then she's done. Personally I think this is Obama's race to lose. Time will tell but we are on our way to the general election.

Version: 15

Few minor updates.

Version: 14

Just a few minor adjustments. I think Obama has the full potential to win this whole thing, nomination and White House. He has out raised Clinton in money and new few contests are going to prove to be wins for him if all plays out. I fully expect Obama to win Maine today and then DC, Virginia, and Maryland on Tuesday. After that I think that based on what we have seen in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois that he'll have the strength to carry Wisconsin and of course his birth state of Hawaii and leftist strong hold.

With such wins under his belt he'll have collected massive amounts of money and greater momentum. He was pronounced dead going into Super Tuesday and survived. He thrived last night. The conest could be decided on March 4. Based on what I've seen out of Florida, Nevada, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, and California he seems to have troubles in largely latino areas. I think Hillary could claim a victory in Texas.

But that is not assured because Texas does have a large black population as well so it may be closed. Obama did come razon close to winning New Mexico, we'll be watching it closely. The key is Ohio. If it falls Hillary has a problem. Coupling his other wins I think he could go on to win Pennslyvania and that would be it.

We'll see how thing progress. Change can be expected in such close contests.

Version: 13

Okay so I ran the race out. I hope it looks good but so far I've done a better job than I expected to in calling the Democratic race. I personally hope Obama wins the primary. The battle rages on.....

Version: 12

Obama is looking to be building up strength. Clinton may just come back and suprise us but I think as of right now the ball is in Obama's court.

Version: 11

Final prediction before Super Tuesday.

Version: 10

Final prediction before Super Tuesday.

Version: 9

I have no idea who is going to win the Democratic nomination. Hillary looks to be in a good position but because delegates get divided up I really don't know. Obama has build quite a resistance to the Clintons, even getting the Kennedys on board. We'll know in a week but so far I've called the Democratic race pretty good. Which is kindof weird for a Republican.

Version: 8

This race has become just as hard to call as the one on the GOP side. Both are so fluid, I don't want to make any long term predictions at this point. The fight between Obama and Hillary has gotten pretty serious and we'll see how it effects the up coming races.

Version: 7

Wow the Demcratic race is getting more divided the further along we go. At this point I don't know who will win so I have created a tie until I get more data from the different results of the races. The racial split in the Democratic race is unheard of. I think Edwards may get out soon and endorse Obama. We'll see but a group of undecided voters in Nevada are split 50/50.

Super Tuesday will tell us a lot but the race could go beyond that date. The Clinton loyalists and anti-Clinton forces are really battling it out for control of the party. At least that is how it seems to this outsider. I do believe that Obama can and may well win Nevada and South Carolina while Mrs. Clinton will claim Florida.

We shall see. On to Nevada!

Version: 6

New dynamics have emerged in the Democratic race. For a time I toyed with the idea that Obama may win. But I knew Clinton Inc was stronger than that. Obama is not dead yet, he'll battle her through Super Tuesday, and he has the money and support to do it. We'll see how it plays out. Nevada is going to be Hillary's so will Michigan and Florida. I still believe that South Carolina goes to Obama along with most of the south. She'll take big states I'm sure. Lets see what the voters think.

Version: 5

I think that Barak Obama may be well on his way to winning the nomination of his party. This is clearly become an anti-DC year. For the most part he is seen as the candidate of change that can lead America with optmism into a better future. Hillary was suppose to be unstoppible. She had the most support in Iowa, the most money, the most endorsements. And she lost. She even lost the female vote, 30-35. Younger voters and those seeking change, plus independents and voters of other candidates, went to Obama.

Now I think he may be poised to win New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary may win Michigan as the sole candidate but it has been stripped of its voting delagation. Nevada will save her but she could lose Florida to Barak. We'll see about that.

Then on Super Tuesday Obama could win in California, the South, and Midwest. Hillary would do well in the rust belt. She may stay in the race until March where she graps Ohio but a lose in Texas would knock her out.

We'll see what the people think.

Version: 4

Version: 3

Alright as we head into the final stretch of the primary race I'm looking more and more at Mrs. Clinton gaining the nomination. Now Obama could still prove trouble some to her and keep the race going up till March. In addition to that I still believe that Obama has a chance to win but here I have given the nomination to Hillary. Notice I have placed all states at the tossup level because I feel that the polls are unrelible and we have to see what the voters think. So lets go through the time line.

To being, Obama must win in Iowa to stay in the race. If Hillary wins there, he's done and she is the nominee. I kindof feel that it is that simple though Obama could still suprise us. If he wins in New Hampshire instead of Iowa well that would keep him in but it'd be hard after a lose in Iowa.

So here Obama wins Iowa but loses New Hampshire to Hillary who goes on to win Michigan and Nevada. However Obama comes back to gain South Carolina before Hillary scoops up Florida. However, because Florida and Michigan have been stripped of their delegates I don't know if they will matter as much, but a win's a win. So now on Super Tuesday Obama cleans up in the south and some in the western states like Idaho, Colorado, and Alaska. Illinois is his as well. Hillary cleans up the rest.

Now at this point Edwards and the others drop out and Obama really should too but he stays in winning the next two contests in Nebraska and Louisiana. But he has a fierce battle with Hillary over Washington state where he loses. After a couple more defeats Obama concedes and Hillary goes on to win the remaining contests.

My last version is the best Obama win senerio if you would like to see it. This is probably what could happen but there are also other senerios too. We shall see what the voters think.

Version: 2

New map, new idea. It seems to me with recent events that Barak Obama may be capible of beating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. I seriously doubt at this point that Richardson, Biden, Edwards, Gravel, or any of the others pose a real challenge to either of them. Edwards could however still have a strong showing in the early states, especially Iowa. Lets run the time line.

Barak Obama works the gambit and comes out on top in Iowa, gaining about 40% of the vote. Hillary runs in second somewhere in the mid-30's while Edwards comes in at about 29%. Five days later Obama just barely wins New Hampshire. Hillary comes back to win big in Michigan and then again in Nevada. Her Nevada margins are closer than she'd like though. South Carolina is another big victory for Obama but Hillary remains in the race winning Florida.

Super Tuesday give Obama a great opertunity. He manages to gain the southern Democratic electorate with the aid of many black voters and scores well in the west. Hillary holds her own with wins in California, New York, and other parts of the Northeast. Much to her suprise however, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Colorado prove to be Obama victories. Richardson wins in New Mexico with Clinton second and Obama third.

The rest of February finds Obama and Clinton picking up various states. The others minor candidates drop out. Most of their support swings to Obama with the exception of Richardson's camp as he endorses Mrs. Clinton. She gains Ohio in early March but Obama pulls out a narrow win in Texas. Edwards finally pulls out of the race and with most of the big states gone and the south lost, Hillary concedes to Barak Obama who wins the remaining states.

One possibility of many.

Version: 1

Hillary Clinton will for sure be the Democratic nominee. At least at this point. I am beginning to supect though that Barak Obama could give her a run for her money. He has the potnential to make the early states dicey for her and pull off some supprises in Georgia, Kansas, and maybe Oregon though this map does not show that particular possibility.

The other Democratic nominees will surely drop out after the early states are finished and all be Obama will be done by the end of Super Tuesday. Obama may linger for a couple weeks there after, maybe picking up Nebraska but that would ba about it. He drop out and Hillary would carry the remaining states.

I'm not an expert on the Democratic races so this is the best I could come up with.

Version History

Member Comments

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-02 @ 06:12:12
Ah Operation Chaos - big fan. Can you rally some more out in NC? Would be most helpful. May even sink the Obama campaign then & there.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-02 @ 11:46:40
We'll be doing the best that we can. I fear the state is lost to Obama. But that does not mean that we can't have an impact both there and in Indiana.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-02 @ 13:28:41
Clintons numbers are on the rise in indiana according to recent polls, and this is likely democratic voters not factoring in operation chaos lol as its so dubbed.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-02 @ 21:47:03
Yes it looks like NC has gone back to Obama in the latest polls. But if Clinton can keep it reasonably close than the delegate split won't be that much for Obama. Should be interesting. Hopefully it won't be a blow out here like it was in SC, VA, & MD. Although the campaign has tightened this then.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-02 @ 23:56:03
Hillary will lose NC by 12-20 pts.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-03 @ 09:06:00
I hope not. Let's see. Must be exciting for you to have now cast your votes in this whole process?! So how come you switched from Hillary to Obama? I meant to say on a previous post where do you Win & Who live in Indiana? So I can watch on election night. I think Win told me along time ago but I can't remember sorry. Indiana has also tightened at least according to Zogby! I'm glad I've been wearing my Hillary badges in case it's all over this week. I hope not. haha PS an awesome website for all of us Hillary fans (yes I know LIberalrocks & me lol) is justhillary.com - check it out. Last Edit: 2008-05-03 @ 09:07:40

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-03 @ 15:16:45
Demboy cool I checked it out there are many good fan sites out there for both candidates. If you want a laugh check out billforfirstlady.com lol lmao at the utube Hey most of the Hillary fan posters post on the general election prediction page. Myself Liberalrocks, Doniki80, Chica of Light, Hillbilly, Americanadian, you can come join us with our republican friends lol. Last Edit: 2008-05-03 @ 17:16:38

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-03 @ 15:19:42
Obama will not win NC by double digits. Bill Clinton has been campaigning hard in western NC and other rural parts of the state and she has increased her advertising there as the campaign has seen an influx of donations recently. Indiana will be lean to strong Clinton and Nc will be tossup to lean obama as of right now. 12-20 points not gonna happen and the polls are backing me up on this one.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-03 @ 18:16:09
Hillary will easily lose NC by double digits. You can count on that :P

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-03 @ 23:24:47
I'd say NC lean to strong Obama, and Indiana toss-up to lean Hillary. Obama will win NC comfortably, but perhaps not quite double digits. Indiana perhaps Hill by a point or two but an exact delegate split. Obama will be here for a rally Monday night. Thank God!! He's been here a lot, but many have been waiting for a big rally here in the Circle City.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-04 @ 01:12:25
Where's the Circle City? Is that Indianapolis? I think Hillary in Indiana 6-9 points still. In NC I'd say Obama by about the same at the moment. & only because of his strength with African Americans, once again coming to save the day with 80-90% over the top support! grrrr! But feeling increasingly confident that if he wins he will go down as another Dukakis/Dean flash in the pan story that peaked too ealry sorry, I think McCain may just win the day over Obama if that's the scenario. What he said this week about Wright was great but why didn't he do this back in Pennsylvania instead? It's almost too little too late in my opinion. It probably has helped him with a lot of voters, I don't know. There's something seriously lacking in his candidacy when you see through the hype. I do think he is a great speaker but that's it. I guess after the somewhat inexperience of Bush it would be nice to have someone that is completely competent & for me Hillary is that person. Again watching her on Fox with O'Reilly I thought she was magnificent. She is just so competent, so detailed, she has plans, she has command of the issues, I just don't know why so many people don't like this woman. It completely baffles me.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-04 @ 01:14:48
Thanks Liberalrocks! I'll have a look. I did used to be a Republican supporter right up till Dole, & maybe once again with McCain who knows. It's funny isn't it? I couldn't stand Bill Clinton, but love Hillary! haha I turned like many with the rise of the American Right & the Republicans bedding down with the "Moral Majority" - more like the "Hypocritical Majority!" It might be nice to see the Republicans brought back to the centre with McCain. Last Edit: 2008-05-04 @ 01:16:49

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-04 @ 02:54:09
I went to the Hillary rally off West Washington St. About an hour after the event, I was walking on West St. and I saw Bill Clinton smoking in a SUV in the motorcade that passed. Hillary made a lot of good points in her stump speech, but she didn't really address the war to my liking. I'm not sure if it was really him or not. But I have to admit I will definitely vote for Hillary over John McCain. The Clintons really weren't that bad when you consider how absolutely miserable of a failure George W. Bush's entire time in office has been.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-04 @ 04:30:02
Yes I think I've become too much of a Democrat to abandon Obama for McCain. I do like McCain but can't stand his party anymore. Religion & politics should never mix & the Republicans certainly haven't taken any notice of that whatsoever. Mind you I come from Australia which is not very religious, we have a healthy skepticism of religion & a blatant disregard for authority! grin

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-04 @ 04:32:59
I'm glad you went to Hillary's rally, I'm not sure if I would have gone to Obama's. Petty I know. Maybe I would have out of curiosity but wouldn't want to have been seen as supporting him over Hillary! lol Does Bill smoke? Shocking after his health problems. I honestly don't know where they find the energy to do all this campaigning! I would have fainted from exhaustion long ago, & from a 60 year old woman! Impressive. I think if given the chance Hillary would prove twice the President Bill ever was. At least there wouldn't be any Monica Lewinsky type stuff going on.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-04 @ 11:04:39
Alright I wanted to stay on topic with the Democratic primaries but demboy has forced me to defend my grand old party. First off the only reason we claim this whole Moral Majority stuff is because we are trying to support traditional Judao-Christian values. That's what attracts values voters who are just as passionate about what they see is the loss of a moral society as any liberal is about healthcare. Furthermore no one said we were perfect. Of course we are going to fail in a quest for complete morality, we're human and flawed. But its not like we're trying to establish a state church or anything. But when you are religious that is a part of who you are and you can't just turn it off. Just as a secular can't turn off their skepticism. Now personally on those social issues I'm a federalist. Leave those decisions up to the states. And I also tire of social conservatives like Huckabee supporters who's agenda as a coalition we support but the favor never seems returned by them for the non-social issues. Right now what's important to me and most Republicans in my wing of the party is energy, the war, national defense, taxes, spending, shrinking government, the border, and judges. Time for the social issues to take a back seat for a while. So to say this party is just about religion is incorrect. Values are a part of our platform and social conservatives a very important group in our coalition of voters but they are hardly the whole show. As for the race. NC - Obama, IN - Clinton. Both no greater than 10 or 12 at the max.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-04 @ 19:37:11
I'm amazed some people on the top 10 of this site actually think Hillary will win North Carolina.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-04 @ 22:15:04
They are desparate for Hillary to break through, Who, and winning NC is probably the only way she could. I respect your opinion, CR, and your apathy towards the religious agenda of some of your compadres. As to whether they're trying to establish a "state church", however, is debateable. The confrontational tactics of some attempting religious displays on state property and Christian prayer forced upon those in public schools indicate the are, and attempting to get the Supreme Court to erode those barriers to state sponsored and endorsed religious activity. Another so called "strict constructionist" (a ruse for the Constitution means what I say it means) on the Court and these barriers begin to fall, and not just on the fringe, as they have to date.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-05 @ 00:18:19
Hillary has no chance of winning NC. I mean literally at all. Obama didn't poll all so well back in SC and then Hillary got curbstomped. I'm thinking the same will happen with NC. Only the hacks here think Hillary is going to win NC :P

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-06 @ 00:27:10
No one is trying to establish a state church. That is a bunch of, pardon my phasing here but, "fearmongering" by the radical left in America. Some social conservative are very worried about the morality in our country. Just as many liberals are worried about healthcare coverage for all. They see it as ways to make things better. No one is forced to partake in prayer but my God we can't pray at all now? And like it or not, the United States was founded partially on a Judao-Christian ethic. There is no reason to take down the ten commandments from a court house, its a part of our heritage. The government is not suppose to interfer with religion at all and that goes for displays on government property. Its disrepectful to our heritage. I'm always told if I don't like offensive art then don't look at it or if I find music offensive then don't listen to it. If some people find the cultural Judao-Christian aspects of our heritage or traditions not to their liking then they are not forced to participate nor do they have to pay it any mind. That is my two cents on religion in America. My final predictions on tomorrow's races are as follows: North Carolina - Obama win with 57% to 43% Indiana - Clinton win with 53% to 47% Now all we can do is wait.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-06 @ 02:31:21
I am reading "nine", about the Supreme Court - 90s to date. Part of it describes the agenda of the religious right and its attempts to challenge existing precedent by placing religious objects on statehouse lawns and contriving school prayer schemes. So far, the Supreme Court has largely seen through such tactics, but I am not so sure the current Court will. The Court's view differentiates long existing and un-objected to displays on government property from new and controversial ones, which I think makes sense. Obviously, if led prayer in public school were allowed, those required to be there would have to pay it mind. I believe that a moment of silence for individual student to use as they wish is permissible. These are very real questions considered and decided by the Supreme Court, which would could only break the church-state divide, but interfere with the right to pratice religion as one chooses. Your NC prediction is the same as mine. I also agree with your Indiana prediction intellectually, but cannot get myself to make it myself due to my emotional investment. I am holding out for an Obama victory, score be damned. I got to see Obama again tonight. I suspect there were 15,000 people there. Quite a spectacle. Last Edit: 2008-05-06 @ 02:34:43

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-06 @ 04:00:24
Likewise under the moniker of "Hack" I am keeping North Carolina as Hillary. My prediction is Indiana for Hillary 55 to 45, that's right 10 points! & North Carolina for Obama (urgh) 53 to 47 points, with the Clintons making up big ground in the West, rural, & White parts of the state. Did anyone see that if only Democrats voted apparently Hillary would be winning? Not that that counts I guess but it's still very interesting isn't it? Obama has won not only with African Americans, college kids, & the liberals, but with Republicans, & Independents, up until the Reverand Wright debacle anyway. Let's see how that now changes.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-06 @ 04:04:14
& Conserv Rep I respect your views above, I just think the Republicans have really blurred the lines in the last decade or so & that has turned me off. Seperation of Church & State is fundamental, to enable freedom & personal liberty, the Pilgrims fled Europe because they were denied this basic human right.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-06 @ 18:19:03
Ah but Wingindy, that book only tells half the story. You know why social conservative need to use the court for change? Becuase liberals and seculars used them first starting in the 1960's in order to begin removing cultural religious heritage. An act that to my understanding violates the First Amendment which states that the government will in NO way interfer with religion. And we all know that precedent is a load of crap. If it were so important then the court rulings of segragation, slavery, Jim Crow laws, and others would not be able to have been challenged in the 1950's and 1960's as those were all supposibly settled law. Many social issues that conservatives fight today where at one point, like abortion, allowed to be settled by the people of the states. The courts began to take that away from us in the citizenry and we must now use that system to restore the order. With respect I believe it is the liberals that have blurred the lines on church and state and tradition. But that is neither here nor there. As I've said, social issues can take a back seat for the time being. We have more important things to worry about. Now demboy I'm not sure about Republicans voting for Obama. If they are following Operation Chaos orders they will be pulling the lever for Hillary.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-06 @ 18:48:30
What is it you contens violates the First Amendment, whixh, BTW,is the right to free speech, and does not speak to religion. Obama had led amongst Republican crossovers prior to the Mississipii primary, after Limbaugh announced operation chaos. By some estimates, 24% of Clinton's support in MS came from Republicans, most of whom don't like her. Here's an interesting study: "Based on numbers I compiled this afternoon, before the McCain wrapped up the nomination, just under 2% of voters in Democratic open primaries were Republicans for Clinton. Since then, the number has jumped to 4.6%. Meanwhile, Obama's number has remained steady at 4.5%, indicating his Republican supporters are mostly genuine Obama backers. (Pro-Obama Republicans who voted in the early primaries had to give up voting in the Republican contest.)" http://www.jedreport.com/2008/05/pro-mccain-repu.html Obviously, these voters made little difference in MS. How much impact since, I don't know. I doubt it was a crucial factor in Clinton's nearly 10% victory in PA, a closed primary. It could well win Indiana for Clinton today, and finally achieve it goal by prolonging the process. A co-worker who lives in Hamilton County, an affluent suburban county North of Indianapolis, told me that her husband was unable to vote today. Hamilton is an overwhelmingly GOP county that doesn't even have Democrats on the ballot in some races. Obama is favored to win there by 20%. Apparently the poll worker asked if voters wanted to register as a D, R, or neither (which is unecessary in an open primary). He, an Obama supporter, said D. The poll worker told him they had his old Indianapolis address listed, and that he could not vote, despite the fact that he had recieved a voter id card with his new address! She did not offer a provisional ballot. As he waited for help, he noted others who requested to register D were also turned away. His wife had said neither earlier in the day and voted without incident. Could the dittoheads have hijacked this County's election machinery??

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-06 @ 18:59:52
The Nat'l Right to Life Committee is in on the act to with robocalls defaming Obama. http://www.jedreport.com/2008/05/republican-anti.html

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-06 @ 19:22:30
I sit in enemy territory amidst worried and dejected Hillary supporters. The Clinton candidacy has been shattered. This ends in June, but Hillary is completely screwed going forward. NC will be a huge blowout.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-06 @ 22:15:46
A very good night for Obama supporters, As hard as it is I will take the high road. Congrats-- Obama ites.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-06 @ 23:13:45
I believing forcing a judge to remove the ten commandents from his court or office is a violation of the free expression of religion as the government has no business in that matter at all. If a community wants to honor its traditions then so be it. I don't like that my tax money goes to art that depits Christ in a toilet but it does so I think others can deal with it. But as I have said we have more important things to deal with. Take the Democratic primary race tonight in which operation chaos rolls on. Here are the results that I have so far: Indiana - Hillary wins 52% to 48% and that is with about 82% of the vote in. North Carolina - Obama wins 55% to 45% and that is with about 65% of the vote in. Now what is interesting is the exit polls. In both states Hillary lost the black vote across the board but Obama has lost the white vote. Hillary blew him out of the water with white men, white women, white unionites, white non-unionites, and both the white Protestant and Catholic vote. She also did well with voters over 45 years and won white voters age 30 to 45. Again those are Indiana and North Carolina exit polls with 82% and 65% reporting in thus far. They may be updated but Hillary and Obama both had strong leads in their respective catigories. Onward to Denver!!!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-07 @ 01:20:50
If you think this is going to Denver, you're nuts. Operation Chaos stopped Hillary from being out before tonight. But it's still over. This was more than a good night... this was the end. Hillary Clinton has no way of winning the Democratic nomination. Literally. At all.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-07 @ 01:36:48
As long as Obama is even one delegate shy of 2025 Hillary is in. She gave a big victory speech tonight and claimed a turning point. Said it was full force to the White House or something to that nature. She is going no-where, at least till June. But Operation Chaos served its purpose. Division have been created. Did you not say it was the end after Virginia, after Wisconsin? Hillary's only hope lays in swaying the supers. It really doesn't matter to me. The primary has done exactly what I hoped it would. But until the last states have voted I doubt we'll see Hillary leave any time soon. In any case talk about a razor thin win for her in Indiana. Wow, its like Missouri and New Mexico, extremely close. So who's next in line, Oregon and Kentucky right? Wow lot of change heading into those races, lol.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-07 @ 01:53:04
With 99% reporting in it looks like Hillary has officially won Indiana 51% to 49%. Damn I was off by one point in each direction.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-07 @ 02:09:01
Whoblitzell in 2004 I may have been fighting the good fight with you but now Im just "bitter". CR has a point as far as the delegate count. In fact the party was divided before Rush and his operation chaos entered the scene. They have just added to the division that would have been there without them. Do I think there will be rioting at the Convention, No. But we are a divided party and your nominee may not have to deal with rioting working class and elderly Hillary supporters, but what he will have to deal with is Mc Cains bitter silent majority in November. In fact I would not be suprised if assuming the November vote is close to have a scenario where by Obama leads Mc Cain in the weeks and even days leading up to the vote and Mc Cain pulls it off much to the pundits suprise Why? Independents and Hillary Democrats aka Reagan Democrats. Last Edit: 2008-05-07 @ 02:12:09

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-07 @ 08:30:21
Yes unless he chooses her as his running mate, the Republicans nightmare scenario, because then they get obliterated.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-07 @ 08:37:45
From the New York Post today, pay particular attention to paragraph 2 Obama supporters: Among white voters, some 80 percent in Indiana and North Carolina who said Wright was part of their equation supported Clinton. Yet only 25 percent of voters said they made up their mind in the last week, meaning her raps on Wright - and her push for a suspension of the federal gasoline tax - didn't sink in much. Another issue for Obama was the high percentage of Clinton backers who said they'd switch sides and back GOP Sen. John McCain in the fall if she's not the nominee. The figure was more than 40 percent in Indiana and slightly higher in North Carolina

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-07 @ 08:39:28
Yes he's in for a stunning victory in November isn't he? I can't believe some people on here are predicting he'll win North Carolina! Um Edwards didn't win it when he was running on the last ticket, & he was there homeboy!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-07 @ 08:42:29
& the bottom line is the vote's not going to change that much with his key demographic in African Americans as they already heavily favour the Democrats. So he has to make it up with his other key block of Liberals, oh also heavily Democratic, & College Kids - somewhat unpredictable after the fad fades. Is this a strong enough coalition of voters in November? Oh that's right he's done really well in die hard Republican states with lots of electoral votes like Idaho, Nebraska et al.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-07 @ 11:06:21
Given your predictions that Clinton would carry Indianapolis (Obama won with 67%), and be close in NC, I'm not sure your predictions for the general election hold much water. Last Edit: 2008-05-07 @ 11:10:09

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-07 @ 15:43:28
Do tend to agree that right now the supers have a real big problem in their hands. You see they will ultimately determine the Democratic party's nominee. They say they will not over turn the will of the people but that is exactly what they were designed to do in the first place. Stop the people from making what the upper ups think is a bad call. The New Deal Coalition is fractured. Obama has not done real well with white voters. He is extremely popular with the anti-war crowd, college kids, blacks, upper class Democrats, and liberals. McGovern and Dukakis demographics. And while he does okay with independents, for right now, I don't think its good enough for the GE. Now Hillary on the other had has all these high negatives. She is big with the rest of the New Dealers - older voters, Jews, unions, blue collar workers, hispanics, whites, and of course Reagan Democrats. These people are just the kind that may be inclined to vote for a centrist Republican like McCain. Now McCain has troubles with the all important GOP-base voters but that could change if he picks a good VP. And McCain doesn't have to worry about doing well with any particular racial group. He won't win over black voters, he has a good number of whites, and hispanics/asians like him. So I think that he has a good chance this fall. Now the next few primaries favor Hillary. Next Tuesday she'll pick up West Virginia and then pick up Kentucky while Obama takes Oregon the following week. Then we get Peurto Rico, which will vote for Hillary. It will probably be early June before we hit Obama's other states in South Dakota and Montana. Those next states give Hillary a roll and we'll have to see how the race response to that. Last Edit: 2008-05-07 @ 18:12:56

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-07 @ 16:58:00
I'm not sure with whom you are agreeing that the supers have a problem. As far as I can tell, yesterday Obama solved any dilenma they may have faced previously. Witness 5 more supers endorsing Obama today, two of which had been Clinton supporters. Also former Hillary supporter McGovern called on her to quit and endorsed Obama. There is no longer a "race" - it has been won. Obama will clinch a clear majority of the pledged delegates in two weeks, and will be by then within 100 delegates of 2025. As I expect the supers continue to come out for Obama, he'll hit 2025 either then or within a few days thereafter. Let it go. Last Edit: 2008-05-07 @ 16:59:04

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-07 @ 18:12:09
The damage is done regardless and I do believe Obama will be the nominee. My point is Hillary will do everything between now and 2025 delegates to ruin Obama and turn this thing around. She doesn't give a speech like she did last night and quit. In the end Clinton is self-serving. She will go on and on and on and on. Whether it ends in June, July, or August. It hardly matters. However the longer she stays in the more opertunities for greater damage to occur. So while I believe that eventually Obama will finish this thing, I'm more interested in the chaos being caused by Hillary currently.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-07 @ 22:44:11
No - I disagree. Hillary no longer serves any purpose, even a selfish one, by attacking Obama. You will not see those attacks from here on out. The active campaign, if you will, is over, and Clinton knows it. Word from her campaign is that she will be out by June 15. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/hillary-will-drop-out-by_b_100625.html

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-07 @ 22:53:23
Well, she doesn't really have a choice. If she tries to push it to the convention past June the super delegates can easily shove Obama over 2025 or 2208 or whichever other symbolic metric the Clintons choose to make their moving goalpost next week.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-07 @ 23:07:29
As a Republican I know the Clintons. As long as Obama is even a delegate shy I'm telling you that she'll stay in. Now maybe that will happen in mid-June. But the longer she stays the more chaos she causes. So I expect we'll at least have another month or so watching Hillary claim a turning point had been reached. But we'll see. Only five months to the big voting day!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-08 @ 06:47:37
Typical smug reaction from the Obama camp - they've already won, "let it go!" They have no interest in democracy (or a debate!), & letting every state have it's say. Why don't we just coronate him now? Let's make him President without voting even? I mean you know he's really thumped her hasn't he? It's May, he won't get to 2,025 with pledged delegates, but yes he's still won!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-08 @ 12:37:55
Smug it might be, but Hillary is toast. To believe at this point she can win requires the belief that super delegates will deny the nomination to the winner of the popular vote and pledged delegate count. If you think this is even remotely likely -- you're just flat out delusional.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-08 @ 15:44:42
Hillary is toast now Obama will be toast in November--then they both write books Then she can run in 2012. Mc Cain 2008 If you think obama can win in November---your flat out smokin some bad stock. He will be lucky to get 48% of the vote. Last Edit: 2008-05-08 @ 15:45:19

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-08 @ 15:48:07
"Did you not say it was the end after Virginia, after Wisconsin? Hillary's only hope lays in swaying the supers." Indeed, I was wrong before. I underestimated her margins in PA and Ohio. The difference is that now Ohio, Texas, and PA have passed and she is even more delegates in the hole with no clear way to get out. Basically there aren't really enough delegates for her to pull this out anymore. To believe supers are going to bail Hillary out at this point requires belief that the first African-American within spitting distance of the Presidency will have his popular mandate overturned by the party based on the idea that he is 'unelectable'. In the Republican party, that wouldn't fly. Even in the agreedly more racist (the Northeast is probably the most racist area of the country imo) Democratic party, it still won't hold water. Hillary is therefore done, as she can't win with pledged or super delegates. The following 3 weeks are the Clintons coming to the slow realization that their time on the national stage has long since ended. Last Edit: 2008-05-08 @ 16:01:10

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-08 @ 18:40:55
There goes the party I once identified with.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-09 @ 00:28:41
Most of the people saying 'Obama is not electable' are simply buying in to media race-baiting. For what other reason is he unelectable? Association with controversial figures, 'inexperience', and liberalism are rather common to many Presidential contenders in American history -- including many that went on to win the office. So what's the hang up on electability? Well, it's because he is black and there is fear he is some sort of Muslim. And I think it's totally fair to bring up that he is black. And to vote against him for it. But at a certain point, you have to realize that voting this way makes you literally equivalent with the lowest common denominator of American society -- no better than the modern homophobes or the sexists of society. I'm starting to feel like some of these people in the Clinton campaign are really just hell bent on power and pandering to the lowest common denominator to ensure they maintain control of the party. And really, that is shameful. Hillary Clinton is a monster. And frankly, I for one am glad to see her exit from the national stage. It couldn't come at a better time. The Clintons are the worst kind of political garbage this country has to offer.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-09 @ 00:44:42
Who I quite agree with you. Hillary is finished. Obama will be nominated. The only possible way she could even remotely hope to turn it around would be to get Michigan and Florida to count and do well in the last primaries, enough so that she overtakes Obama in the popular vote. She could then make a case to the supers that not only is Obama unelectible but that she has the popular concent of the party. Whether or not she can get that done or if its even doible is very questionible. But it is her only option and I bet she persues it till Obama crosses 2025. And you're right. I don't think Democrats would dare take this away from Obama and risk losing the black vote. It'd be suicide. Damage has been done and the longer Hillary remains in this race the more damage she will do. She may not make it to the convention but I doubt she'll leave before the last primaries are done on June 3. And who exactly got elected to office with those traits of liberalism, bad associations, and lack of experience. I mean recent history too so as to equate it to modern-day liberalism. McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis? All failed. I guess maybe Carter. But then you throw race in there as you said and that won't hold for many Americans. I'm not saying he can't win, but I feel he is facing just as much of an uphill battle as Clinton or McCain might. Or maybe a little more, I don't know yet. We'll see what the next five months bring. Last Edit: 2008-05-09 @ 00:47:10

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-09 @ 01:00:11
The GOP has a much tougher sell this time around and a tough battle in terms of money, the issues, voter satisfaction with the status quo, etc. Selling a 72 year old white guy as an agent of change only goes so far =P

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-09 @ 12:08:34
I really don't think so. I mean yes we have issues between the moderate and Rockefeller wings of our part and the Reagan base but most will tend to vote for McCain to keep Obama out of office. We have plenty of money as well. Obama may raise a lot but the RNC has three times the cash on hand the DNC has. And McCain is not Bush, that's over. Many people like McCain because he's a maverick, a centrist. He'll have large cross party appeal. So we'll see where the campign goes. On I just heard on ABC that Obama has over taken Hillary in super delegates now. Its only a matter of time before he finishes her off. But I doubt she'll leave till after the primaries.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-09 @ 14:27:30
Of course, but the chances of this going to Denver are literally 0% now. She will concede in early June. Florida and Michigan will be seated (and she will still be behind and lose because of super delegates).

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-09 @ 16:54:35
Even without additional supers going to Obama, if all MI & FL delegates were seated according to their elections, Hillary would still not catch up. That may be what you just said.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-09 @ 19:11:54
Well maybe. If Kentucky, West Virginia, and PR deliever her with large votes and she can hold her own in Oregon and Montana then she may have an option left. Get Michigan and Florida to count and she may be about to over take Obama in the popular vote. That done she'd fight for supers and it could go to the convention that way. So to say there is 0% chance, well, we're not quiet there yet.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-10 @ 00:10:45
OKay, how about a .005% chance?? :P

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-10 @ 01:58:10
It is 0%. Obama will get to 2025 and the media will declare him the nominee. Hillary's attempts to drag it out past that point will be seen as cynical race-baiting and pleading for last minute rule changes -- the last desperate actions of a defeated campaign. Like the Hillary supporters here, I fear you are quickly losing touch with reality CR. At least if you really believe the party will allow this to continue until August. At a certain point, super delegates can get behind Obama and push him well over 2.025 and past 2.208 as well and simply say "Hillary, even with Michigan and Florida we pick him. You lose. We don't care about the popular vote. We don't care about your cynical and cold arguments of electability. The party has chosen, and you have lost".

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-10 @ 06:27:06
Losing touch with reality, that's rich, lol. I'm simply pointing out what I think the Clintons are up to. It doesn't matter to me but the longer Hillary stays in the more damage and chaos she causes. Guess I'm just not ready to see her go, lol. But I'd really love it if what you said happened and the supers said screw the popular vote if she won it. That would go over really well!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 07:40:43
I'm really appalled by some of the recent comments on here (or more correctly rants!) Really bad stuff. Sorry but I've never said that about Obama - that he's & I quote "political garbage". Those sort of comments are really going to alienate Hillary supporters who yes you will need in the general election if Obama wins the nomination, which of course seems likely. & let's face it Hillary supporters are what - 48% of this Primary so far! Not really a smart thing to do, thankfully your hero is a little more eloquent. Very unfair & I expected better from you to be honest. What has brought on this vile? PS HRC seems to be doing even better in the latest West Virginia poll - over 40 points in front! WOW! It may be too little too late but for this PROUD Hillary supporter it's damn nice! Go out with a bang Darling! Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 07:50:16

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 07:44:53
You know you really need to go back & read some of the comments you've accused others of being - low & base (or to that extent) & then re read your own comments. Ironic to say the least. If this is what we have to put up with from the Obama camp than the grace of McCain is certainly looking more attractive day by day. Maybe age over immaturity is better after all. Yep 48% in the GE is looking more & more likely. Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 07:46:26

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-10 @ 10:12:40
He'll do better than 48%. The way he's running closer in Red states than Dems generally do, its more likely he wins the popular vote outright, with only the electoral vote in question. Hillary cannot win the popular vote at this point, unless you choose to count Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot. Obama will clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20, and be within 80 of 2025.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-10 @ 15:46:47
In early polls the media had Dukakis and Mondale doing the same thing in the 1980's in "red" states. Obama will not carry any of the core Republican states, end of story. I don't care how charismatic he is. He's far too liberal for my fellow conservatives that rule the roast in those states. I personally think Obama is a very damaged candidate over all. But hell its not like McCain and Hillary give us a great deal either. But to say he'll win the popular vote outright, well that's premature. But I'm a pacient man, I can wait till November. In the meantime, the Democratic race rolls on..... Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 15:48:21

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-10 @ 17:05:54
Like the Republican race rolled on after Super Tuesday.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-10 @ 19:05:55
The Democratic race is over, at least if you ask the media. Hillary is being portrayed as the rightful joke her candidacy has become. She is in Mike Huckabee territory now.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-10 @ 20:09:56
The GOP race was never like this. It could have been had Romney and McCain duked it out but Mitt stepped aside early for party unity. Huckabee was never a real contestant (more of a Huckabust than a Huckaboom) and in any case we've had out nominee, like it or not, for a couple of months. Hillary and Obama are Democratic titans and they have caused a deep division in the normally solid party. But as a Republican I must admit that it is sort of fun to see the Clintons dumped by their own party. Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 20:56:51

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-11 @ 00:37:58
Most super delegates do not consider the votes cast in the Michigan and Florida primaries to be legitimate, because the "contests" (I'll use the word liberally here) were held without DNC approval. In this matter, the 'votes' cast in these 'primaries' are again widely meaningless. Whatever the compromise, the DNC isn't going to contradict their own rules. The results of the old primaries and the ballots cast in them will be not be recognized as validated even if the delegations are seated. Another thing you might consider is that Puerto Rico now votes on June 1st and is a primary and not a caucus. Hillary will be out of national contention by this point and will be easily defeated in Puerto Rico, CR. Last Edit: 2008-05-11 @ 00:58:07

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-11 @ 13:45:23
Its a real pickel for the Democrats I'll say that. In the GOP primary we simply halved the delegates of the states that violated our rules about voting early. I believe that rule effects New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and one other state. But for the Democrats you have two states that broker rules and where thrown out. Now I can personally see that. Follow the established DNC rules. But Hillary supporters, whether it helps her win or not, will scream disenfrancisment from here till the convention. But I respectfully disagree Who. This stuff about Obama being crowned after May 20 matters little till Hillary. It doesn't matter that she would be unable to win. She'll stay in till the primaries are over and that includes Puerto Rico. She win big there. Mr. Obama will have to cross the magic 2025 line for her to drop out. Otherwise she'll probably stay till the convention hoping to get it on the second ballot.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-11 @ 20:33:33
What basis do you base Obama winning Puerto Rico other than the fact that you think Hillary will have dropped out? There's certainly no polling data to reflect this. How do you think Hillary's big win in West Virginia (if you go by the consistent opinion polls, & the fact Obama won't be there till today, since March 20!) will change momentum? I'm sure the media will play this up for all it's worth.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-12 @ 14:31:54
Momentum means little at this stage. Pennsylvania did not translate into momentum going into 5/6 for Clinton. Any advantage (and media attention) will quickly be clouded out by a large number of supers declaring for Obama next Wednesday. Obama is only 152 delegates from clinching a majority of total delegates - 2025. In pledged delegates, Obama has been ahead from the beginning, Hill can't catch up, and Obama will cross the majority finish line, 1627, on May 20 and declare victory. No Demoratic candidate has ever won the majority of the pledged delegates and not been nominated.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-12 @ 16:40:44
There's always a first, lol. You know if it was any other opponent I'd agree with you. And I agree that Obama will be the nominee and that all that you said will come to pass. But I doubt till he actually cross the 2025 mark will Hillary drop out. These are the Clintons after all. They'll fight till the bitter bitter end, even if that means everyone else has moved on. And it will mean something to her supporters.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-12 @ 22:03:27
Yes, you are correct, AND Obama will reach 2025 by June 2.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-12 @ 22:53:25
Then I'd expect this race to be over on June 3 or 4 with Hillary's withdrawal. Shame too, I was so looking foward to an exciting convention too. Oh well I've already had a lot of fun.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-12 @ 23:27:43
Me too!!! What a ride!! So the Dems kiss and make up while Huckabee supporters pray for Mccain to loose so their savior can return in 2012, Ron Paulbots hold the GOP hostage in Minneapolis, and Bob Barr begins sniping at the GOP. Oh, joy. Perhaps McCain should name Cheeny as his running mate - he can just call in the National Guard and have it done with!!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-13 @ 15:32:03
The Demcrats make up, I don't think so. I mean a vast majority will of course stay together but you have some real deep divides that will not heal fast. And the Libertarians always do this. Let them rattle about whatever at the convention. Those code pink and other hard core anti-war activists said they'd be at Denver. As for the social conservatives most will stick with McCain. A lot more with a solid VP. No worries about them, Bar, or anything else. Any small group of people we loose we can make up for in independents and cross over Democrats. Onward to November.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-13 @ 18:34:05
Agreed. Mc Cain has always appealed to independents he did in his run for the nomination in 2000. Ive got my Mc Cain sticker right below my Hillary on my car.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-13 @ 23:42:34
Ah, but the Libertarians have never had a candidate like Barr. Georgia's peaches are ripening for Dems. Luckily, the Dems will have a candidate with a much stronger appeal to independents. I feel for you CR. It's already a tough year to be a Republican. Loosing the MS congressional delegation? Three seat lost in special elections in what, 3 months?? Apparently the Dems went about 10 years without capturing one from the mid-90s. Its not going to get better anytime soon.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-14 @ 00:41:21
I could say its not going to get better soon either for your split in the Democratic party. Lets face it, we have damaged parties. The Libertarians had Paul in 1988, basically Perot in 1992/1996, and Buchanaian in 2000. Now Perot was a screw up in 1992 but the rest are nothing. Besides Barr may have at one time been a respected Republican but his abandonment of the party lowers him in conservative eyes. Let the libertarians have him. I'm feeling good about the White House. I find Obama not to be the golden candidate others make him out to be. But your right about our congressional problems. We need a national campign. Right now the nation is anti-incumbent. But that said we did hold our seats in Ohio and Virginia in December and we beat one Democrat in Maryland earlier this year. We have problems but so do the Democrats. We're both damaged parties and its time to do what we can with the angry electorate. Now I don't know what McCain's coattails will bring nor the fall election but its a long way to November.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-14 @ 02:20:14
Interesting that you attribute the congressional losses to anti-incunbancy, as no incumbants appeared on the ballot. Yet the GOP attempts to tie the Dem. candidates to Obama backfire, and Cheeny's efforts in MS come to nothing. Of course there is no incumbant on the presidential ballot either, as you have pointed out a number of times, but the party of Bush is showing a real disadvantage. The Maryland 4th Dist. special election does not occur until June 17. The Dem. incumbant was defeated in the Democratic primary. The Dems. are sure to hold that seat. Meanwhile, Rep. Gilchrist was defeated in thge GOP primary in MD1 by a right winger, who the Dems could defeat in November. Buchanan & Perot were Reform Party candidates. The Lib candidates were inconsequential - I don't even remember who they were. No former congressmen, though.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-14 @ 07:14:15
Obama deserved the thrashing he got in WV today - especially since he basically ignored the state. Still can't understand the strategy there considering it's so crucial to the general election. This just shows how overly pumped up & immature his campaign is. I read today apparently no Democrat has won the Presidency without West Virginia since 1916 - so good luck there guys! R u ready for another whopping in Kentucky?! I say YES WE CAN! Bring it on! Let's hope she rolls him in Oregon too, wouldn't that be just Peachy! (Georgia Peachy even! - you don't seriously think you're going to win Georgia?! I guess with the coalition of other Republican states (cause god knows he's having trouble with the Democrat states) like Idaho, Wyoming, & Nebraska! (LMAO) you're in for a real shot!). Go HRC! It ain't over till the Lady in the Pants Suit says so! Last Edit: 2008-05-14 @ 07:15:57

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-14 @ 11:16:45
That's true wingindy but the GOP did hold the seat. There where a few other factors as well. The Republicans got into a very nasty primary fight in MS-1 and the Democrat running ran as a blue dog, a conservative. Sorry about the Maryland thing I guess I hard about the primary results. But case in point the incumbents lost. Now the presidential race is far different from the congressional races. Remember that all elections are local. But the GOP needs a strong united front to develop over the summer. At this point I know we won't win any house of congress back, I'm interested right now in damage control and narrowing the field. Also when Paul ran as a Libertarian in 1988 he was a congressman. And Reform and Libertarian, whatever, both just GOP-wannibies. In any case I'm not worried about them.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-14 @ 14:30:06
Barack Obama will still be the nominee and I will still be voting for John Mc Cain this fall unfortuanately nothing has changed except the fact that Obama's unelectibility is being shown demographically in this trouncing in a once solid democratic state of West Virginia, no democrat has been elected president without carrying West Virginia since 1916.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-14 @ 14:31:24
67 percent to 26 percent Yeah I would say thats a trouncing. She carried every county including the Charleston area.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-14 @ 16:04:28
It is rather impressive that a beaten primary candidate trounced the presumptive nominee by 41 points in a primary that has come basically at the tail end of all this race. Yes I know demographics favored Hillary there but wouldn't take this omin lightly if I was in the Obama camp. Those will be important demographics come the fall. Last Edit: 2008-05-14 @ 16:06:07

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-14 @ 17:12:28
Hillary R. Clinton: "Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room." "I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is -- obviously I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama." CR: are you referring to the OH & VA seats the GOP held? Those were in '07, prior to the Dem. primary season groundswell. Apparently John Edwards is en route to Grand Rapids MI where he will be endorsing Obama at 6:30 p.m. tonight. I'm happy for Mrs. Clinton. Congratulations on your candidate's win, fellas. After all, we Dems. are all one happy family.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-14 @ 17:16:29
Still deluding yourself, CR? You guys are in for a trouncing in November.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-14 @ 17:42:29
Mc Cain 2008 ! Wing good luck uniting YOUR party. Maybe you can start in West Virginia. Last Edit: 2008-05-14 @ 17:51:17

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-14 @ 17:46:37
I have placed the Mc Cain bumper sticker on my car. Although I disagree with him on many issues he still does "represent my values" better then someone who attends a hateful church. As soon as Hillary drops out Ill make a donation to Mc Cain 2008, and volunteer and phone bank in the fall, I will take the energy I would have devoted to a Hillary general election run and put it into Mc's run, they will apreciate my work I believe. Oh and just for the record what other choice does Hillary have but to endorse him they are in the same party and she is thinking of her future It doesnt mean the rest of us will be flocking to the messiah. Last Edit: 2008-05-14 @ 18:17:29

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-14 @ 20:15:55
Good for you, Lib. Its good to see young people engaged in politics.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-14 @ 21:15:59
Who and Wingindy, yeah you're right. We are in big congressional trouble. That's what happens when we abandon conservative principles, go to Bonn's presidentail map page for more info on my rant against the current GOP establishment. But as for the presidential race hummmmmm I don't know about Mr. Obama. Reminds me a lot of McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis. So we'll just see about that. As for my personal choice, well I get a McCain bumper sticker when he picks a decent running mate.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-15 @ 07:41:21
I won't really care for a while after Hillary goes out. I may get interested for Obama but I don't think I'll rally for McCain so to speak. It's time for a Democratic President Liberalrocks! The Republicans have had their go, & lord knows this 8 years has been a long hard slog not just for America, but yes the rest of the world too. I don't feel comfortable watching McCain get cosy with Bush for party unity or whatever (not that he could be expected to do anything else obviously). I really would love to see states like West Virginia go Democratic in the fall but I can't see it happening under Obama. He wasted an opportunity by not campaigning here. In regards to the Edwards endorsement I always knew he was a closet Obama supporter, I had no faith in him coming out for Hillary at all. My only surprise is it's taken him so long! No doubt they'll be wheeling him out in Kentucky to try & stem the flow there amongst the Democratic base that has proven so resistant to the Obama candidacy. Don't think it will do much good at this late stage. My bet is Obama will pick Edwards as his running mate. Unless the party force him to choose Hillary if that's even what she wants. I must say once again Time was an interesting read this week on a very green & inexperienced Obama candidacy for a House seat back in 2000. Isn't it funny how times change? Who would have predicted the stratospheric heights he would reach from such a humble & unpolished unsuccessful beginning! Apparently his changed the way he speaks, originally sending a Black Church to sleep during one of his speeches, & loosing the Black vote! (to another Black man though).

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-15 @ 13:11:00
Wing well I will agree with you there it is good to see people who care about the process and their country ! We all want the best qualified or in my case the lesser of two evils, Im going with Mc Cain and it is a good thing to see my generation engaged now what will be even more interesting is will they stay engaged once the fall campaign is under way?

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-15 @ 13:13:47
Sorry demboy I know you dig Hillary as much as I but I dont like Barack Obama his personality his smug arrogance and sly demeanor disgust and scare me. I feel the country would be safer with Mc Cain, I dont agree with all of his policies but I have always liked him. As with the last elections I guess I will be forced to pick the lesser of two evils

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-15 @ 13:22:56
Dem, interestingly the one ward he won in that 2000 Congressional race was white working class, Irish-American ward. I'm not sure I'd call Kentucky voters the Democratic base. Hopefully, Edwards will campaign for Obama there.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-16 @ 09:07:06
No Kentucky is not the Democratic base anymore, though it should be!!! However the Democrats that vote there are probably fairly typical of the Democratic base - at least White working class base that everyone has been so fond of talking about of late. You know the drill. I know I read that too about the ward he won, but didn't want to mention it for obvious reasons. lol Naughty I know. Liberalrocks what are we going to do with you?! haha I respect McCain but I really don't see the strong attraction that you have there, apart from your dislike of Obama. Do you think you are judging him more on his supporters & surrogates rather than the man himself? I'm often angry with them but when I take a breath & think about it, it's not necessarily anything that he has done personally. I think in this campaign mostly Obama has been more than gracious. (Michelle on the other hand has been a different story, however thankfully she has been remarkably quiet of late thank goodness!). Now you know I'm a very strong Hillary fan, & am not too happy about the turn of events, but I think in the long run we are all best served by Obama over McCain. I think it's purely supporting the party ticket over the ... gasp Republicans! They need to go & take stock for a while & move back to the Centre where they belong - like many of the Conservative parties have been forced to do around the world eg UK, & now even Australia. It's time for the Republicans to put away their support of Corporations eg. Halliburton, Enron et al over the voters, & lobbyists over their electorates! The worst thing about your politics is the power of the lobbyists! Get rid of special interests! They have no right in taking over the political process! Unfortunately it is clear to the whole world that Washington is beholden to them & it is revolting.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-16 @ 11:28:10
Sorry Demboy but I beg to differ. Our problem is that we've abandoned conservative principles. That is why we're in trouble, because we moved to the center and became the pre-Reagan wimps we use to be. When we are conservatives and don't act like Democrats, we win election. But appearently we've forgotten the lesson's of 1980, 1984, and 1994. How about the Democrats come back to the center from left field? Put away their support for Moveon.org, Hollywood, and their lobbyists over the voters. We never talk about that. But there is a lot of work to do in the GOP, we have rebuilding and house cleaning to do. Time to dump the RINOs and get back to the basics. Start over.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-16 @ 12:38:38
LOVE THE RINO"S Sorry demboy its also a personality thing for me about obama He's arrogant smug sly and so condescending to anyone who doesnt agree with him---not the personality I wanted in the white house and although they are night in day policy wise I see some of the same personality traits in W. Bush as well. Mc Cain yes I do honestly like him, I dont agree with him on many issues but he is a safer option for me and apparently other democrats in swing states if these exit polls are correct look at the ohio and pennsylvania exit polls. I also have reservations about his religious beliefs, his wife and Kenyan ties There is no way in hell I will vote for Barack Hussein Obama. I guess if Mc Cain punches a baby or something lol Last Edit: 2008-05-16 @ 16:10:13

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-16 @ 19:03:48
Rasmussen released a poll today that showed that 25% of Democrats think Obama ought to drop out the race and 29% want Hillary to run for president as an independent. Wild election year.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-17 @ 05:34:16
Nah Hollywood is more fun than being Conservative! I definitely think the Centre is where it's at, as most people are in the centre. In the centre is fairly balanced & is neither extremes, & you still see both points of view. What's wrong with that? I'm not sure where the Democrats are at, & I see what you're saying re being too left with Obama anyway. After all he is the most Liberal voting Senator in the Senate! Not that this bothers me at all, but I think it's a hard sell to many Americans if not most. The other week I saw him saying that he didn't want his daughter to be punished by having a baby if it was a mistake! A baby is never a mistake in my view. Although I am pro abortion as I believe in the woman's right to choose, however personally for myself I don't agree with it morally, & it was quite shocking still to hear him say this. My brother who is a big Obama fan but also a Minister recoiled in horror when he heard him say this! & it certainly has made him think twice about Obama. So I guess if the Republicans focus on these sorts of things he may be in for some trouble. I too would like to see Hillary run as an Independent if that is what she wants. What are the RINO's? Haven't heard this term. I like McCain too, I think he is quite a decent person, his wife is a bit of a Barbie (read plastic!) doll, but whatever. However I find him a very dry often boring speaker, that often sounds quite weary. There's nothing wrong with Kenya though Liberalrocks is there? Their democracy has been a little shaky of late but it's hardly Zimbabwe! Can't help where you're from! & in regards to MoveOn.org ConservRep I wouldn't worry too much - they seem to have a track record of backing losers! eg Kerry for President. Won't it be funny if Obama chooses Edwards for VP - it's like he's the perennial bridesmaid or something - like can't they pick someone else for running mate? I think this is a real strong chance.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-17 @ 15:35:50
What's wrong with the center, well I think conservatism is best way to do things and there for reject the lukewarm approach. That's all. Its about principles and we conservatives believe our ways offer the most freedom, liberty, and representation. Liberals and Democrats see it a different way. That's fine and that's why we have elections. A RINO is a phrase that means Republican In Name Only. Basicially its used in the GOP by the base and conservatives to describe members of our party we feel are way too moderate or liberal. Democrats have a similar term - DINO, but its not used as often. For example, three of the most liberal senators in Congress are Spector, Collins, and Snowe. All three are Republicans and tend to vote a lot with the Democrats on many issues. Hence we in the base term them RINOs. I hope that helps. LOL, Moveon does tend to favor liberals and Obama is no expection. I too think it would be very funny if Edwards gets VP again, didn't help the first time and it will hardly matter now.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-17 @ 23:07:19
Jim Webb is my flavor o the week. Edwards is an excellent orator, but old hat and little political experience. Webb former sec'y of the Navy under Reagan bring foreign policy cred. and can put them over in swing Virgina.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-18 @ 08:47:52
I just don't know how "swing" Virginia really is Win. I'll believe it when I see it! You don't break that sort of voting record easily. The old south has steadily & steadfastly trended Republican for decades. It would be a shock to say the least. & let's face it Webb hardly got over the line in the last election & yet the way many Democrats speak about it you'd have though he'd romped in. Not trying to be negative just facing the facts. Still this election could be ripe for many upsets, although I think they may be more in the Midwest for Obama.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-18 @ 23:23:32
Well, for the first time in 30 years, Virginia will have TWO Democratic US Senators in 2009. For the first time since the 80s, Democrats control a house of its legislature. Kerry lost the state by the smallest percentage of any non-southern Democratic nominee since Kennedy. About 20% of its population is black. Obama trails McCain by only 3% in the most recent poll, and has led or tied in several polls this year. So Virginia, while trending Republican for many years, is currently trending Democratic. It will be in play in November, and a Virginian on the ticket could seal the deal. Kaine could do the same, but lacks Webb's foreign policy experience. Obama's candidacy will dramatically increase the turnout of blacks and young people, potentially putting several southern states in play. Virginia is probably the most promising of those.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-19 @ 02:02:04
Exciting stuff to say the least. I think this election will be very interesting one way or another.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-19 @ 12:07:46
You know I don't buy this states are trending one way or the other. Its all about candidates and issues. And its about party preception too. The GOP is in rough shape these days. I have a feeling we'll retain Virginia but the Democrats have gained in strength there. There are not enough black voters to put the south in play. They vote 95% for the Democrats anyway so big deal. Obama does have some issues with white voters and latinos. That helps McCain out. Not to mention that McCain is good with indepedents, moderates, and blue dog Democrats. And with that the south is safe.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-19 @ 13:20:31
Olympia Snowe is my favorite republican senator followed by Collins, Smith, Coleman, Spector, and ofcourse Mc Cain. Governor Jodi Rell of Connecticut is also another fav. LOL Rino's... More Rino's then Dino's.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-19 @ 16:32:11
I am tired of RINOs and their attempts to remake the Republican party. I think they'll find their efforts in vain as we in the base still have a say in the matter. In anycase I like Coleman alright. I'm no McCain fan but if he is willing to give us a good VP then that's fine. As for the others, I have little use for them. We never see any kind of DINOs to match the RINOs in the GOP. It'd be nice if we did. Well I guess there was Zell Miller but he's gone now. Some of my favorite senators are DeMint, Sessions, Bond, Kyl, Dole, McConnell, Hatch, Cochran, and the like. Good conservatives one and all.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-19 @ 17:07:34
Also I'm closing this map down and moving things to my final map, version 21. Last Edit: 2008-05-19 @ 17:07:47

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-19 @ 23:06:15
I don't think 'RINOs' are under any illusion they are changing the GOP. Many of them have stood their ground as the party changed around them.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-20 @ 07:55:50
Well I think Snowe & Collins would make fine Democratic Senators! lol Honestly a big party like the GOP should be able to make room for everyone. Moderates have played a big part in the party if not recently I believe. It's this kind of war of ideology that has killed the party I think as I for one would have been classified as a RINO (not that I knew what that term was until explained thanks) but am now firmly Democratic. Case in point the strong turn of the Northeast from Republican to Democratic - even Liberal Vermont was once firmly Republican folks! & in reverse you have seen the once Democratic South jettison into the Republican camp. The Republicans are way too conservative now for my & I suspect an ever increasing number of American's liking! I think also the problem is not just being told what to do but by people who are so insincere & hypocritical - it's - Do as I say not as I do!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-20 @ 11:17:58
Look there is nothing wrong with some moderates. And yes we are a big party and anyone is free to join. But it is also a conservative party. That is what I elect Republicans to be. When they no longer fight strongly for our agenda and compromise on every issue (with little to no benefit for our side) then yes I have a problem. Even the so called moderate Democrats stick with their party more often then our moderate Republicans. And many do want to redefine the party as this Rockefeller center group. There is in many ways a battle for the soul of the party. We conservatives believe our way is best and we intend to fight for it. Many Americans if you sit down and talk to them without using political terms tend to be right of center on a lot of issues. So conservatism is far from dead, it just is in bad need of leadership. And demboy as for that insincere and hypocritical part you mentioned, the Democrats are no better than we are. They fit right in with the do as I say not as I do crowd.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-20 @ 12:17:11
CR : Conservatives need moderates and independents to win elections. Barry Goldwater won conservatives in 1964 we saw how well that went. However look what Reagan did with his wins and the " Reagan-now Hillary Democrats" voting for him. My point is that tent needs to be large enough to include everyone. Last Edit: 2008-05-20 @ 12:18:54

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-20 @ 21:18:05
You can't win an election with conservative Republicans alone. They probably make up less than 30% of the population, given that only about 33% of the public identifies as Republican now.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-20 @ 23:38:27
No Johnson won on a large sympathy vote and the vow to keep popular assinated President Kennedy's message alive. Reagan won on conservatism twice in huge elections. We won back the congress in 1994 on conservatism. It works if we use it because indepedents will respond to it. Party affiliation has little to do with it since conservative does not always equal Republican. I wish it were so simple. :P My whole point has been that a right of center message appeals to the majority of Americans and conservatism when done right wins election after election. But that means that we have to win in the arena of ideas and for that it all comes down to candidates and issues. Last Edit: 2008-05-20 @ 23:39:46

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-21 @ 02:53:43
I believe the Republicans used to be a lot more moderate than they are now = less electoral success now perhaps? It's ok to be Conservative if that's your thing, what's not ok (& I'm not making accusations here at all) is to try & make everyone else Conservative. Everyone's opinions should be respected, & I think this is where many Conservatives go wrong, they think they can impose their opinions & beliefs on everyone else. I think Conservatism works best on Economics - hence the Independents get on board, but lets you down when you try & restrict people's freedoms on values & morals. Wer'e all grown ups & don't need somebody else tellling us how to live our lives based on their own religion & beliefs. Viva Secularism! I believe in God but I sure want my freedom thanks!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-21 @ 18:05:07
That's the beauty of conservatism, most of us that are conservatives just want to be left alone. Okay there some social issues that some wings of our party feel pretty strongly about. They also feel we need to take governmnet action on those social issues because liberals took them there first. No one said you have to be a conservative. But we believe that is the best way to run the country and that is why I vote GOP, to get that agenda done. And might I say that more often than not its the liberals that try to impose their will on the majority. Social conservatives have their moments too but as I said, they feel liberals took it there first. And believe it or not but religion, the West's Judao-Christian ethic in particular, helped to spawn freedom and democracy. Remind me to go into detail about that some other day on the presidential part of our maps. Viva faith! (though I don't ask anyone to believe what I believe). I would say its interesting to note this: in the 1960's and 1970's the Republican party was moderate and we were also a bunch of losers. We never held the congress and only did breifly in the 1950's. We had Nixon and Ford and that was about it. When we got conservative in the 1980's and early 1990's we started to win. We as party needs to learn from that.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-22 @ 21:17:48
Thank-you all for your participation. I've enjoyed the discussions here. The primaries were fun. See you on the big board.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-23 @ 15:29:22
Agree thanks to everyone for making this a fun map. See you on the general election pages!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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