PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - me (I-GA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-07 Version:29

Prediction Map
me MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
me MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton16
 
Edwards3
 
Obama32
 
Richardson1
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton10
 
Edwards1
 
Obama23
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup18
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
483216
piepiepie

Analysis

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Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 28

clinton will drop out after her losses in IN and NC


Version: 26

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Version: 25

nj tossup


Version: 24

suoirotciv si amabo


Version: 23

obama wins


Version: 22

louisiana-remember katrina.for most in this state,cring about people is very,very important.edwards beats the other candidates by far not only in my opinion,but also(according to polls and exit polls)most other dems and independents

montana-I would like to show the results of a mason-dixon poll taken in december(I found it on another site obviously):
1.clinton 29%
2.edwards 19%
3.obama 17%
also, I meant to make montana 30%.

georgia-ed is popular here and will spend alot of time between now and super tuesday campaigning here.


Version: 21

No Analysis Entered


Version: 20

by may, clinton and obama drop out.kucinich is stubborn and never drops out.


Version: 19

No Analysis Entered


Version: 16

gonna predict one date at a time.


Version: 15

in sc, obama wins by less than 1%, so momentum is split equally between edwards and obama.

obama wins


Version: 14

i am crazy
this mapis ridiculous
lol

the 3 things all comments will say.but remember kerry in 2004.
besides,richardson is the moderate and the experience candidate.


Version: 13

you can tell when certain candidates drop out.

obama wins


Version: 12

unsure who wins at convention


Version: 11

after winning most early states edwards wins most states at super tuesday.obama and minor candidates besides richardson drops out by march. clinton and richardson drop out by june.


Version: 10

momentum can be precious to candidates.


Version: 9

obama wins at convention.

pop vote:
obama-31%
clinton-28%
edwards-26%
richardson-10%
dodd-5%
other candidates drop out before super tuesday.




Version: 8

key words here is major momentum.


any questions I will answer.


Version: 7

the way the democratic iowa caucus works(people divide up in supporting groups for each candidate.there is an undecided
group that is tried to be brought to a candidates group by its members)edwards is more likely to win than most people think because until recently edwards only attacked clinton.supporters in a bunch will point out positives and, more importantly, past
records.plus with rural iowa in his support, that will put him on top.


edwards was born in SC and is out doing everyone else on ads.
he has a high aproval rating there and by the time the primary comes he will emerge on top.

same thing with richardson in nevada(but he wasnt born there)


now to tell why texas goes to obama.with texas so conservative democats will try to nominate someone more popular with moderates(edwards and richardson to far behind in state).
obama is also popular in texas.


Version: 6

edwards momentum from winning Iowa and SC plus 2cd place finish in NH
leads to later wins no majority of delegates. edwards wins at convention because more moderate.

NM supposed to be lean

find out how iowa caucuses work, and you might see why I have
edwards winning. if you do not,I will tell you why.

as for SC,that is his birthplace and he is popular there.he just is in a bad position now.plus,he has the most ads there.

Kucinich wins in hawaii because he almost won there in 2004 but
this time there isnt a center-left frontrunner to stop him.


Version: 5

I will explain any questions.


Version: 4

richardson miracle map


Version: 3

i will explain any questions u have


Version: 2

richardson will gain in nevada fast and really boosts momentum
to help win in alaska and almost win in ND

edwards gains momentum from iowa and that is a major help nationally

clinton doesnt get majority of delegates and obama wins


Version: 1

before everybody makes comments telling me I am crazy,let me
explain why nevada went to richardson. richardson is sorta doing well in nevada(except in a recent poll)and is governer of NM.
richardson does fairly good in iowa and new hampshire boosting momentum a bit. he gains in polls very fast in nevada and actually wins the state.

iowa going to edwards boosts momentum alot. same with obama in in NH.clinton goes down and does not get majority of delegates.clinton wins narrowly.

pop vote results:

clinton-39%
obama-30%
edwards-21%
richardson-7%
other-3%


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

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P 2012 President 49/56 38/56 87/112 77.7% pie 54 1 561T760
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Aggregate Predictions 235/301 128/301 363/602 60.3% pie


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