PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - anti_leftist (I-ON) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-31 Version:9

Prediction Map
anti_leftist MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
anti_leftist MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
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52 |

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


I'm not jumping on the bandwagon because of one rogue poll....Clinton is NOT winning South Dakota!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Although hardly decisive one way or the other, Super Tuesday is pivotal in establishing Obama as a legitimate nationwide contender. In the Northeast, he pulls off a minor upset in Connecticut and stays reasonably close in NJ and Delaware. Clinton still wins big in MA and NY, but the results show Obama can compete with the Clinton machine in any region.

Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma go solidly Clinton, as the largely white, blue-collar electorates are perfectly tailored to her strengths. High black turnout propels Obama to a huge victory in Georgia and a very narrow one in Alabama (where the black population is much smaller).

Obama sweeps through the Mountain-West due largely to the strong anti-Clinton and generally anti-establishment/government sentiments there.

In the Southwest, Latino voters prove critical as Clinton narrowly hangs on to Arizona despite a late Obama surge, while California's extremely large proportion of early voters offset recent momentum to tilt the balance slightly in Clinton's favour.

On the whole, the race for the nomination remains a virtual toss-up after Super Tuesday.

Version: 3

Clinton takes Nevada by a respectable margin in part from NH momentum.
Obama dominates black vote to claim victory in SC.

Version: 2

Updated map for now just in NH to reflect circumstances...will do the rest later maybe. Please note that I do not see Edwards taking 70% the country anymore. My final map will probably have the states I initially pegged for Edwards (assuming victory in Iowa) converting to Obama while Clinton states stay mostly the same, since Obama/Edwards have very similar bases.

Version: 1

This map assumes that John Edwards emerges from a tight 3-way race in the Iowa caucuses as the victor. Some of my reasons for this are as follows:

Edwards has the resources, experience and support base in place from last time, increasing his turnout (relative to his proportion of the current polls). His results in Iowa from 2004 also were surprising given his poll numbers going in, so I see no reason he can't use that same formula again.

Clinton and Obama will become overly-focused on each other since basically all polls have them 1-2 and will try attacking each other (at least delicately compared to the Gephardt/Dean fiasco) in the final few days/week to gain the upper hand. This will enable Edwards, who stands a very close third in all polls, to gain a small bit of support (he doesn't need that much remember) that helps push him over the other 2.

Finally, a reason that not too many pundits and media have focused on, but I think will play a big part. Edwards is the only white male out of the 3 viable contenders. Although America certainly has come a long way in rooting out discrimination/prejudices over the past few decades, I don't believe for a second that it is as enlightened as so many tend to believe. Racism and sexism will still be factors in an election for President. Even though this is the Democrats (supposedly the more tolerant party), Iowa's blue-collar nature certainly leaves open the possibility of racist/sexist voting leaving a mark, especially in a race this close. I believe Edwards has a natural support base of about 20-25%, which puts him within range that if even a tiny proportion of voters hid their prejudices from the pollsters but adhered to them in the actual caucuses, he should be able to come out on top.

I predict Clinton edges out Obama for second, since Edwards draws most of his voters from the Obama camp.

This victory clearly tilts the scales of the race, with Clinton's aura of inevitability shattered and Obama's momentum completely destroyed. Hence, Edwards emerges as the primary anti-Hillary candidate. Edwards' mediocre standing and Clinton's relatively strong position in other early states (i.e.: Nevada, New Hampshire) enables her to pull out victories in those states and salvage some momentum, but Edwards' Iowa victory still has done enough damage to alter the race's fundamentals.

After these results, Obama either withdraws or stays in the race but with extremely thinned out support, as most of his supporters see Edwards as their best chance to defeat Hillary and eventually win the Presidency. This propels Edwards to victory in South Carolina and most Super Tuesday states, although Clinton still takes California, NY, and a few others where her initial support is strong enough to overcome Edwards' renewed national media attention. However, Edwards Super Tuesday victory basically turns the race irrevocably in his favour. Obama and Richardson take their only victories from their home states.

Assuming Clinton does officially stay in the race, she probably wins a few more states after Super Tuesday (mainly in the North-East), but Edwards sweeps the South and heartland from this point on to secure the nomination.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 1 17T678
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 3 1 47T760
P 2012 Rep Primary 2/52 1/52 3/104 2.9% pie 1 - 222T231
P 2008 President 52/56 46/56 98/112 87.5% pie 7 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 46/52 26/52 72/104 69.2% pie 9 - 7T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 25/49 64/98 65.3% pie 7 - 3T235
Aggregate Predictions 245/321 183/321 428/642 66.7% pie

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