Date of Prediction: 2008-05-31 Version:21
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Version: 20 Clinton wins big in West Virginia. 60% is probably her floor there. Version: 18 Despite the fact that many people feel Pennsylvania is a lock for Clinton a lot can happen in 6 weeks. Already people are starting to speculate that Clinton has peaked too early here. That's not to say it will be a cakewalk for Obama though. He has a major uphill battle to fight here in order to win. I will probably change my prediction here at least once before the primary, likely during the week preceding it. Version: 17 MS and WY, although small, will blunt Clinton's momentum coming out of March 4th. This along with a 6 week campaign in PA will be beneficial to Obama and could potentially put him over the top there. His ability to win there hinges on him becoming more aggressive though. He can't let Hillary question his experience and then go around touting her bogus 35 years of experience claim. Version: 15 I think Obama has the potential to sweep March 4th. Vermont is almost assured for him, Texas looks to be pretty promising based on recent upward trends and their strange delegate allotment, Ohio will be difficult but a narrow win is possible, RI actually looks like it will end up being the hardest one to crack for Obama due to demographics and the fact that he probably won't campaign there. Version: 8 I can haz the Audacity of Hope. Version: 6 First off, Edwards is done. I think he'll be lucky to break 10% in most of the remaining states. Version: 5 From what I've seen, Obama's loss in NH has made his supporters even more determined to beat Clinton. Also, it appears that the unions have realized Obama is their best shot. That in addition to the myriad of recent endorsements he's received will hopefully give him the upper hand in Nevada. A win there will boost his already sizable lead in SC. On Feb 5th Hillary will take a few states but Obama will dominate and clinch the nomination. Version: 4 Obama continues to ride high in NH and SC winning those contests decisively and essentially ending the Edwards campaign. Clinton clings to life in Michigan as independents mostly vote for McCain in the GOP primary rather than voting uncommitted. Obama only manages to squeak by in Florida because he didn't campaign there. He then goes on to dominate Super Tuesday losing Hillary's home states and California simply due to shear size. After that he wins everything easily. Version: 3 I can't make up my mind on how to rate states that are way far down the line so I have a strange sort of patchwork going on for the strong/lean/toss-up map. I think Obama has a real chance to win it now though. He won across all demographics in Iowa. Plus, Clinton finished behind Edwards so she is in pretty bad shape. Unless Obama makes a big mistake I don't see him going down easily. Version: 1 Obama manages to barely edge out Clinton in Iowa with Edwards in a semi-respectable third. In New Hampshire Clinton manages to successfully use her overwhelming amounts of influence and cash and her stronger footing here to prevent Obama from taking her down. Edwards places in a distant third and most disregard him as having no hope. Clinton then goes on to easily win in Michigan and Nevada. Obama's strength among blacks keeps Clinton from completely running away with South Carolina but after another decisive win in Florida Obama just can't seem to catch her. Illinois refuses to give up hope for their native son but every other super Tuesday state hands the nomination to Clinton. Obama concedes defeat and the Democrat primary is essentially over.
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