Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Clinton	21
Edwards	2
Obama	29
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Clinton	20
Edwards	1
Obama	27
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	4

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
68	42	26

Analysis

Changed MT from BO60S to BO50L and SD from BO60S to HC50T

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 29

Changed OR to strong for Obama.

Version: 28

State Previous Current
NC BO50L BO50S
WV HC50S HC60S
KY HC50L HC60S
OR HC50L BO50T

Version: 27

Changed IL over to Clinton.

Version: 26

Changed PA from Lean for Clinton to Strong.

Version: 25

State Previous Current
WY BO50L BO60S
PA HC50S HC50L
NC BO50S BO50L
OR HC50T HC50L

Version: 24

Changed TX from 40T to 50L

Version: 23

State Previous Current
RI HC30T HC50S
TX BO40T HC40T
OH HC50L HC50S

Version: 22

State Previous Current
RI BO30T HC50S
VT BO50T BO60S
IN BO50L BO50S
NC BO40L BO50S
WV HC50L HC50S
OR BO50L HC50T

Version: 21

Changed WI from HC50L to BO50S

Version: 20

Changed D.C. from 60% to 80%.

Version: 19

State Previous Current
DC BO50S BO60S
MD BO50S BO60S
VA BO30T BO60S
HI BO50S BO70S
WI BO30T HC50L
OH HC30L HC50L
RI BO30L BO30T
TX HC50S BO40T
VT BO30T BO50T
WY HC30L BO50L
MS BO30T BO50S
PA HC30S HC50S
IN HC30S BO50L
NC BO40S BO40L
WV BO30L HC50L
KY HC30S HC50L
OR BO30L BO50L
MT HC30S BO60S
SD HC30S BO60S
PR BO40T BO60L

Version: 18

State Previous Current
LA BO30T BO50L
NE BO30T BO50L
WA HC50S BO50S

Version: 17

State Previous Current
AL BO40T BO50L
CA BO40T BO40L
CO BO40T BO50L
CT BO40T BO50L
DE HC40T HC50L
MA HC40T HC50S
MN HC40S HC50S
MO BO40T BO50L
NM BO50T BO50L
UT BO50S BO60S

Version: 16

State Previous Current
AL HC40L BO40T
AZ HC40L BO40T
CA BO30T BO40T
CO BO40L BO40T
CT HC40S BO40T
DE HC50S HC40T
GA BO40S BO50S
ID BO40S BO50S
IL BO50S BO60S
MA HC30S HC40T
MO HC30S BO40T
NM HC40L BO50T
ND HC40S HC50S
OK HC30L HC50S
TN BO30L HC50S
UT BO30L BO50T

Also changed KS from 40% to 50%

Version: 15

Changed Florida to HC50S from BO30L

Version: 14

State Previous Current
GA BO40L BO40S
IL BO40S BO50S
MD BO30L BO50S

Version: 13

State Previous Current
AK JE40T BO40T
AZ JE30T HC40L
CA JE30T BO30T
GA JE30T BO40L
KS JE40S BO40S
MO JE30S HC30S
OK JE30S HC30L
TN JE30L BO30L
UT JE30L BO30L
LA JE30T BO30T
NE JE30T BO30T
VA JE30T BO30T
HI JE40T BO50S
WI JE30T BO30T
VT JE30T BO30T
MS JE30T BO30T
NC JE30T BO40T
WV JE30L BO30L
OR JE30L BO30L
PR JE40T BO40T

Version: 12

Changed SC so that Obama gets 40% - I meant to do that a while ago.

Version: 11

Changed NV to Clinton 40L. I'll change the rest later.

Version: 10

State Previous Current
NV HC40L JE30T
SC BO40S BO30S
AK HC40T JE40T
AZ HC30L JE30T
CA BO30T JE30T
GA BO30L JE30T
KS BO40T JE40S
MO HC30L JE30S
OK HC30L JE30S
TN HC30L JE30L
UT HC40S JE30L
LA HC30L JE30T
NE HC40L JE30T
MD HC50S BO30L
VA HC40L JE30T
HI BO40T JE40T
WI BO30L JE30T
VT HC40T JE30T
MS HC30T JE30T
WV BO30L JE30L
OR BO30L JE30L
PR HC40T JE40T

Version: 9

Brought MI down to 50% from 70% for Clinton after ARG's poll came out today with Uncommitted getting nearly 30%. Plus, people just won't come out since Clinton's already won.

Version: 8

State Previous Current
NV JE40T HC40L
FL JE30L BO30L
AK JE40T HC40T
AZ JE30T HC30L
CA JE30T BO30T
GA JE30T BO30L
KS JE40L BO40T
MO JE30T HC40L
NM BR40S HC40L
OK JE30L HC30L
TN JE30L HC30L
UT JE30L HC40S
LA JE30T HC40L
NE JE40T HC40L
VA JE40T BO40L
HI JE40T BO40T
WI JE30T BO30L
TX JE30T HC50S
VT JE40L HC40T
MS JE30T HC30T
WV JE30L BO30L
OR JE30T BO30L
PR JE40T HC40T

Version: 7

Delaware went from 30% to 50% for Clinton.

Version: 6

State Previous Current
NH JE40L JE30T
NV JE40L JE40T

Version: 5

State Previous Current
SC BO20T BO40S
AL JE30T HC30L
CT HC30S HC40S
MN HC30S HC40S
MO JE30L JE30T
NJ HC30S HC50S
NM BR30S BR40S
ND HC30S HC40S
NE JE30T JE40T
WA HC40T HC50S
ME HC30S HC40S
MD HC30S HC50S
VA JE30S JE40T
HI HC30S JE40T
OH JE30T HC30L
VT JE30L JE40L
WV JE30T JE30L
OR BO30L JE30T
PR HC30S JE40T

Version: 4

State Previous Current
IA JE30T JE40L
NV JE30L JE40L
FL HC40S JE30L
AK JE30T JE40T
AZ HC30S JE30T
CA HC40S JE30T
CO JE30L JE40L
ID BO30S BO40S
KS JE20L JE40L
UT HC30S JE30L
WA HC30L HC40S
WI HC30L JE30T
OH HC30T JE30T

OK - so in the caucus states, I forgot that you have to relocate to a different candidate if your candidate gets under 15%. Edwards is @ 42% for highly likely IA voters when it's only him, Obama, and Clinton (and this would be the scenario if nobody else gets at least 15%).

Version: 3

Changed IA from 20% to 30% for Edwards

Version: 2

State Previous Current
NH HC30L JE40L
NV HC30L JE30L
AL JE20T JE30T
CO JE20L JE30L
GA JE20T JE30T
MA HC20T HC30S
MN HC30L HC30S
NY HC40S HC50S
TN JE20L JE30L
OH JE30T HC30T
RI HC30S BO30L
VT HC30S JE30L
MS JE20T JE30T
OR BO20L BO30L

Version: 1

Since Clinton's the only big one on the MI ballot, I figure most won't write her in.

Version History

30: 2008-06-02 @ 23:29:09 29: 2008-05-19 @ 22:16:40 28: 2008-04-08 @ 18:20:05 27: 2008-04-02 @ 13:50:06 26: 2008-03-10 @ 19:52:44 25: 2008-03-06 @ 02:25:04 24: 2008-03-04 @ 02:53:33 23: 2008-03-03 @ 22:06:01 22: 2008-02-27 @ 00:15:48 21: 2008-02-14 @ 04:04:38 20: 2008-02-12 @ 00:22:16 19: 2008-02-11 @ 18:55:58 18: 2008-02-08 @ 18:05:10 17: 2008-02-05 @ 03:32:24 16: 2008-02-04 @ 22:45:16 15: 2008-01-29 @ 02:59:14 14: 2008-01-27 @ 01:44:01 13: 2008-01-23 @ 17:59:50 12: 2008-01-19 @ 03:36:17 11: 2008-01-18 @ 23:33:02 10: 2008-01-14 @ 17:08:54 9: 2008-01-12 @ 20:10:31 8: 2008-01-10 @ 20:40:36 7: 2008-01-04 @ 23:03:30 6: 2008-01-03 @ 23:50:46 5: 2007-12-30 @ 02:03:58 4: 2007-12-18 @ 23:26:27 3: 2007-12-14 @ 15:17:07 2: 2007-12-09 @ 12:25:21 1: 2007-12-07 @ 15:35:36 View Version

Links

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Dem Presidential Primary Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Prediction Map