PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - kccatty (--VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-05 Version:1

Prediction Map
kccatty MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
kccatty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton4
 
Edwards1
 
Obama45
 
Richardson1
 
Other1
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton4
 
Edwards1
 
Obama45
 
Richardson1
 
Other0
 
Tossup1
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
39327
piepiepie

Analysis

After the ass whipping administered to HRC by Obama and Edwards in Iowa it’s on to NH. It’s now about 29 hours after the “shot heard round the world”. Obama is drawing thousands at his NH events; HRC is drawing a couple hundred. HRC’s people are now talking about “Mega Tuesday” as their “firewall”. Assuming no Gerald Ford “Eastern Europe is not under Communist domination” moment in tonight’s debate, Obama wins by 15+ points.

With the momentum clearly his and the “RFK like” devotion and enthusiasm of the Dems, Independents, and more than a handful of GOP, Obama leaves NH with a gale force wind at his back. Flush with new cash and an impressive existing bankroll, Obama now appears unstoppable. Everyone seems to grasp this but HRC and her shrinking pool of Dem establishment backers. As her new contributions slow to a bare trickle, HRC spends her remaining ad funds lashing out at Obama like a wounded animal. It does not work. In fact, this only serves to make her more unlikable.

Like Reagan in 1980, Obama appears to be covered with Teflon. “Mega Tuesday” delivers the fatal blow to HRC, yet she doesn’t fold. She is now “dead woman walking”. She now banks on pledged “Super Delegates” and a ludicrous “Hail Mary” post-2-5 strategy. This will result only in further humiliation over the next week and a half. On 2-12 she finally gives it up after suffering a degrading trouncing in DC, MD and VA.

Edwards remains in the race for pride’s sake wishing only to survive until the NC primary, but he has few funds. Unlike HRC, he declines to humiliate himself by pointlessly attacking Obama. Bill Richardson quits the race on 2-5 after carrying his home state of NM. Of course Dennis goes on, but is not a threat; it’s principle for him. Edwards stays in until 5-6 when he wins NC, then he leaves endorsing Obama. It’s on to Denver, but the general has already started and Obama enters the season up 14 points on McCain, who finally captures the nomination for the GOP. America craves change; Obama more than satisfies the need.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 1 35 401T
P 2008 President 50/56 38/56 88/112 78.6% pie 1 306 276T
P 2008 Dem Primary 32/52 7/52 39/104 37.5% pie 1 - 110T
P 2004 President 48/56 35/56 83/112 74.1% pie 9 6 926T
Aggregate Predictions 182/220 121/220 303/440 68.9% pie


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