I really think, despite some last couple of rough days, the shine is back on Hillary! Now, if she doesn't screw up another debate.

I've never been happier to be wrong as I was on this map about Hillary not winning in New Hampshire.

I'm starting to believe again in a really good, but hard fought victory in the majority of primaries for Hillary.
I think Edwards is going to have to rethink whether to stay in after South Carolina. I can really see Hillary winning there via, a split in the anti-Hillary vote among Edwards and Obama.

I really do think that the only two non-caucus states (so primaries), is Illinois & Missouri, that Obama will win on Super Tuesday, February 5th. And after that it will be only one other primary that Obama will win.

Well, I have to eat crow after the Iowa results. But I think that the results, despite Hillary coming in third are not good for second place show, Edwards.

I do believe there is still going to be resistance in many areas to Obama, mainly w/ Latinos and some whites and even some blacks who will doubt him in both the south, midatlantic, northeast and southwest.

I really do believe that in the end, now, Obama will be the nominee, but HRC will have to make him decide with her winning enough delegates, his choice of VEEP, who I think will be General Wesley Clark (I don't think HRC will want to run herself for VEEP). Obama/Clark running against Huckabee/McCain will keep a strong third party candidate such as either Nunn or Bloomberg or Hagel from running in November. I do believe we will get the Libertarian Ron Paul & the Green Cynthia McKinney nutcases to still run and they will effect things somewhat, but not enough to change the outcome.

More on this on my soon to be updated General election map.

I think with the attacks between Obama and Edwards as of late, and much improved (probably out of the aforementioned) polls in Iowa that Hillary will now win the nomination in a cakewalk, especially after her win in Iowa and Obama now placing third the independents go over and vote for McCain in the GOP primary in New Hampshire.

Edwards and the others will drop out after Super Tuesday, Richardson won't even win in his home state of New Mexico and will declare he is running for the U.S. Senate there, with Tom Udall going back to run for his Congressional seat -- just in time for the filing deadline in New Mexico.

Obama drops out sometime in early March, as he wins very little before then.

By April there is talk about who Hillary will pick as her VEEP choice and that will become even more so with her 60% or higher win in Indiana (hint-hint).

Obama & Edwards and the others will agree to work with enthusiam for Hillary and her VEEP in the fall of '08 (the kiss and make-up idea), somewhat unlike in the GOP field.

Although, I'm nervous about this map occuring which is back to a very strong map for Hillary, I'm cautiously optimistic that this will be the final primary-caucus map.

I think Hillary has made a lot of miscues and missteps, and she has made things more dicey for herself throughout the early primary-caucus states. (And much of her paid staff seems a little out of touch w/ realities on the ground).

But I think if she wins in Iowa, which despite the recent polls, she certainly can do so I think it will go back to being a campaign of who can stop Hillary?

My believe about the Iowa results, now, favoring Hillary are this:

1. The last Rasmussen poll on December 10, out of Iowa had Hillary ahead, slightly, 29% to Obama's 26%. And that poll used reliable caucus goers, the last couple of other polls that used leaners, have Obama ahead, and I think those maybe unreliable.

2. I think in the cold of winter, early next month, Hillary and Edwards voters will be much more reliable to get to the polling sites, than will Obama voters. I think in this regard, Hillary's campaign has learned a lot from both Dean's loss in '04, Kerry's win in '04 and also her husband, Bill not campaigning in Iowa in '92.

I then think New Hampshire will go very closely for Clinton over Obama, South Carolina will also be close but will go to Clinton, and Nevada, Florida and Michigan as well.

On Super Tuesday, there will be some states for Obama and one for Richardson, but in the end Hillary will have the majority and the ones w/ major amount of delegates.

All candidates but Edwards (who has some private funding, and Edwards will try to stay in to the North Carolina primary), Hillary & Obama will drop out of the nominating race by the beginning of March. Edwards won't make it to North Carolina, when he drops out in early April (he will try and throw his support to Obama, but it won't work too well). Obama will drop out in May.

In the end in August during the DEM convention, all will be forgiven and Obama, Edwards and Richardson, etc will strongly endorse Hillary and her running mate North Carolina Governor Mike Easley and work enthusitically for the ticket!

Now, I'm going to a clear cut win for Obama.

I think Hillary, unfortunately, has had some really horrible things happen to her campaign, recently. And there are things that her paid staff have done, just here in Georgia, where they don't understand the dynamics have changed. I'm still for her, and I would love for her to win, but I'm afraid Obamamania has gripped too much of the Democratic electorate in the primaries.

Also, the weather in Iowa in January just might work against Hillary and in Obama (possibly Edwards, benefit).

And now I think Obama will have a clear cut win in South Carolina.

Hillary will win closely the Nevada caucus and the New Hampshire primary, and also the Florida primary. But the weak wins for Hillary, and loss of SC, will push more people to look at Obama and probably go ahead and give him more of an advantage in the Super Tuesday contests! I still say Richardson will win his home state of New Mexico, but very closely, on Super Tuesday.

Hillary will linger on, but what will hurt her the most after Super Tuesday, and she will win in Ohio (this is another reason why I won't give Obama Ohio in November) is the close wins by Obama of Vermont, New Jersey & Pennsylvania and the huge win by Obama in Maryland and D.C.

And Edwards will have already endorsed Obama, over Hillary, to produce Obama's win in North Carolina, Virginia & Kentucky.

But I think the somewhat still strong showing for Hillary, is what will lead Obama to contemplate a woman VEEP selection and Hillary might have something to do with that of Obama chosing Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who would be a strong choice for him.

It's stil a HRC win, but not as by much. And I think HRC will be hurt w/ how well Obama does.

Right now, it's close, but if Obama does this well, who's to say whether he picks up more steam.

I had to change things around w/ recent news & events, and especially seeing how close we are to the Iowa caucuses.

Obviously I think the African-American vote is stronger in many states than would be anticipated, and HRC's support amongst women is softer than it appears right now.

Governor Richardson could turn out to be the surprising convention broker?

I still think the nomination is Hillary's to win or lose, especially after polls that came out today, highlighted on all the news show's this morning (NBC's "Meet The Press", ABC's "This Week", CBS' "Face The Nation" & CNN's "The Last Word w/ Wolf Blitzer"), that show Hillary with a close lead in Iowa and the other early primary and caucus states.

It will be close, though, and Obama, Richardson and Edwards will continue on until at least the February 5th Super Tuesday.

I think Edwards though drops out, first, which helps Hillary even more, especially in the states immediately following Super Tuesday into March.

Richardson does have some surprising strength in his native state and the two states next to then, Colorado & Arizona, but not enough to offset the other candidates' wins. Richardson drops out in April though, too early for him to run for the U.S. Senate, Richardson is being considered for Hillary's VEEP choice, but I don't think he will get it.

Obama has some wins that still keep in the running as late as April or May, but I think except for D.C., Illinois and Maryland they are not that strong.

By the 15th of May, Obama drops out of the running, but does not release his delegates, out of obligation, until the day before the convention.

Obama, Edwards & Richardson all wholeheartedly endorse Hillary at the convention, and agree to help her and campaign for her in the fall, w/ Democrats really wanting to win back the White House.

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