Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-04-21 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	5
Edwards	0
Obama	4
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	5
Edwards	0
Obama	4
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
12	8	4

Analysis

Key States

Pennsylvania-
Clinton will take Penn., however she will only take it with >50% as opposed to previous predictions of >60%. This will mainly be a result of Obama sweeping Philadelphia as well as Pittsburgh and their surrounding counties while Clinton will counter-balance this by sweeping central Pennsylvania. In the end, Clinton will edge out a narrow victory over Barack.

North Carolina-
The very anit-Clinton home state of John Edwards will give Obama a landslide victory of >60% just as Obama swept South Carolina with 55% of the vote and Virginia with >60% of the vote. North Carolina will follow suit of its Southern neighbors and cast their ballots for Barack Obama who will end up crushing Clinton in the state by over 60%-40%.

Indiana-
This crucial tie-breaker between Hillary and Barack will narrowly vote Clinton. The state has been described by Obama himself as the tie-breaker, and will prove very close. However, in the end, I predict Clinton will narrowly edge out Barack >50%.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	51/56	34/56	85/112	75.9%	5	1	357	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	2	1	204	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	8/52	4/52	12/104	11.5%	3	-	222	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	9/49	3/49	12/98	12.2%	1	-	199	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	98/190	58/190	156/380	41.1%

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