PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - whoblitzell (I-JPN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-06-03 Version:77

Prediction Map
whoblitzell MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
whoblitzell MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton21
 
Edwards0
 
Obama31
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton9
 
Edwards0
 
Obama19
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup24
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
884741
piepiepie

Analysis

It was an interesting campaign. In the end, the Clintons were defeated due to numerous reasons. Perhaps the chief among those reasons are the caucus states. Obama won handily in many caucus states in Feb., giving him a delegate lead that proved insurmountable. His youthful idealism, charisma, and fresh face proved to win the hearts and minds of Democrats.

But the idealogical appeals, the loyalty factors, and the sheer celebrity of the Clinton's was not to be underestimated. New Hampshire, California, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana: All states that could have put an end to Hillary Clinton. But each time, she rose from the fire like a zombie in a B-rate horror film. In the ending moments of the campaign, the Clintons could not seem to come to terms with their loss. Their supporters screamed about going to Denver. Bill Clinton lashed out at the liberal media that once adored him. Hillary Clinton herself was unable to concede the obvious: That Barack Obama had won the Democratic nomination.

I don't like to editorialize, but I'll say I lost a lot of respect for the Clintons last night. With no shame nor grace nor class Hillary Clinton tried to steal Obama's thunder on his own winning night without even conceding to the obvious or endorsing him. Pure Clinton politics to those who know them well, but this time against their own side. Perhaps the true question is 'Whose side are the Clintons really on?'

On that note, it seems that their only allies left in the media are on Fox News. Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, and people in that business NEED the Clintons. Without the Clintons to kick around, they are nothing. I suspect Olbermann's popularity will similarly tank once Bush is out of office.

The theme going in to the general election seems to be that walls are coming down. People are sick of Washington politics. They are sick of Bush-Clinton politics. The politics of division, fear, and of the 51% 'mandate'. The Democrats nominated an idealistic young black man while the Republicans have nominated a steady hand with a maverick touch. Will Clinton supporters turn out for Obama? Will the religious right and social conservatives hold their nose on McCain? Will the VP picks matter? Needless to say, the general election will be very interesting.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 3 0 325T
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 6 1 146T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 1 1 74T
P 2012 Rep Primary 8/52 2/52 10/104 9.6% pie 4 - 211T
P 2010 Senate 0/37 0/37 0/74 0.0% pie 9 -1 200
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 3 1 59T
P 2008 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 87 0 1
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 11 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 5 1 27T
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 41/52 88/104 84.6% pie 77 - 1
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 31/49 73/98 74.5% pie 27 - 1
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 9 1 65T
P 2004 President 50/56 29/56 79/112 70.5% pie 33 1 1285T
Aggregate Predictions 451/561 320/561 771/1122 68.7% pie


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